Good Morning Everyone,

I took a much-needed day off of plays yesterday and worked on the playoff guide. Nothing interested me on the surface in MLB and every NHL game was meaningless. Tonight’s games matter and there were some plays I could have jumped on tonight (Matthews’ shots/Kucherov assist), so I will look for some. This is the first playoff article I am putting out and I would like your input on any changes or additions you would like to see in the other team articles. The Eastern Conference has a lot done. I need to edit and round out the points. We should see two games from each conference on Saturday and Sunday so I plan to have the whole guide out by Friday morning. That will give everyone 24-48 hours to read and get our series plays in. We are still waiting on two matchups to be determined in the Western Conference, with Vegas and L.A. fighting for seeding and their first-round opponents. I will have a separate article out later with all the plays- it will be light. Please enjoy the read below and comment on ANYTHING else you would like to see. Each team will have a breakdown like the Isles one and then I will break down each matchup, put out series bets and futures, and have a bracket predicition.

Enjoy!

New York Islanders

Metropolitan – 3rd Place – 94 points

First Round Matchup – @ Carolina Hurricanes

How they got here:

The New York Islanders should consider themselves lucky to be in the playoffs. They are one of two teams (Washington)  in the playoffs with a negative goal differential (-29). Lane Lambert was fired after a 2-6-2 slide that ended with an overtime loss against the Chicago Blackhawks. Lou Lamoriello hired Patrick Roy in a shocking move. Things didn’t get better under Roy, who’s been out of the NHL since 2016, with the Isles losing eight of their first twelve games. After a six-game winning streak, they lost their next six in a row, losing eight of ten. Following that stretch, the Isles again won six in a row as Detroit and Washington lost seven of ten, and the Philadelphia Flyers lost eight of ten. All three teams losing allowed the Islanders to pass Washington and Detroit in the wild card and move up to third in the Metro, passing the Flyers. The Isles deserve credit for putting it together when they needed to and getting into the playoffs. Semyon Varlamov was a big piece for the Islanders final run, winning seven of eight games with a 1.75 GAA

Roster Breakdown:

Anders Lee has been the biggest disappointment for the Islanders this season, with 20 goals and 17 assists. Since signing his seven-year, 49-million-dollar contract in 2019, Lee has failed to hit 30 goals and has been a far cry from the player he was when he scored 34 and 40 goals. Lee has been demoted from the top line to the third line and has scored ten goals in four months since the turn of the calendar year. 

Horvat lived up to his expectations this season, scoring 33 goals and 35 assists, and is an excellent fit on the top line with Mat Barzal (23G/57A). Anders Lee should be on this top line, but it says a lot for the Islanders that Casey Cizikas (9G/13A) has been there since Lee’s demotion. 

Noah Dobson had a breakout season this year and is emerging as a top defenseman in the league. Scott Mayfield is out for the season and won’t return for the playoffs. Mayfield is expected to play a top-4 role on this defense but struggled with injuries, which affected his play. Ryan Pulock and Adam Peluch round out the top 4 but will start as the top pair with Dobson and Mayfield out. Alex Romanov is the most underrated piece on this defensive unit, posting a +22. Romanov is a physical presence who plays without fear in his game. Injuries and a lack of depth led to Mike Riley and Robert Bortuzzo starting on the third unit. Riley has been impressive since his pickup, posting 24 points. Sebastian Aho 

Ilya Sorokin has been a significant concern for the Isles and is horrific in overtime and the shootout (responsible for twelve of the Isles’ sixteen overtime/shootout losses this season).  Luckily for them, three-on-three overtime and the shootout aren’t in play in the playoffs. ‘23-’24 has been Sorokin’s worst statistical year, lacking his Vezina-type play.  Sorokin lost six games in a row down the stretch before winning three of his last four. 

Concerns:

The Isles are two years removed from back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals losses against the Tampa Bay Lightning due to a lack of scoring. Amidst the six-game winning streak, Lou Lamoriello decided to sit tight at the trade deadline, claiming, “My intent was certainly not to dismantle in any way whatsoever. The next step is, can you get better? In my opinion, we didn’t feel that we could’ve upgraded.” Hudson Facshing, Kyle MacLean, and Sebastian Aho Oliver Wahlstrom continue to be a healthy scratch but most likely is the best option above the names above. 

The Isles average less than three goals per game and are the only playoff team other than Washington to be averaging so. 

Twenty goals is an excellent feat for Lee to put up every year if he isn’t making 7 million a year. His lack of secondary production, with only 17 assists, is also a problem for the Isles, who will need scoring in the playoffs. Lee was signed to be the star of this team but is proving to be a bust for his contract. 

 I would be surprised to see Sorokin return to his Vezina-esque form in the first round of the playoffs, especially against a Carolina team he is 5-9-1 against with a 2.92 GAA. We should see Semyon Varlamov get a start or two in this series when they are down 2-0 or on the verge of elimination. 

The Isles powerplay finished 23rd during the regular season and will be without their quarterback, Noah Dobson. The penalty killing of the Islanders finished dead last during the regular season and will face the league’s second-best unit in Carolina. Carolina eliminated the Islanders in the first round last season, and the Islanders inability to stay out of the box was a primary reason. It won’t matter if the Islanders gave up the least amount of power plays in the regular season, a feat they were in the top three in last season; if they can’t kill off the ones, they do give up. The Islanders lost three of the series’ first four games last year, giving up five power-play goals in thirteen opportunities. They didn’t give up a PPG in the two games they won.

Adam Peluch and Ryan Pulock are not a number-one pairing. Dobson’s injury leaves a gaping hole on the Islanders back end that Carolina should exploit.

Path to the Cup:

The Islanders have a very bleak chance to win the Cup this season. To get there, they will need to be perfect against Carolina. For the Islanders to be perfect against Carolina, they must stay out of the box. A disciplined Isles team will be their first step to get out of the first round. Staying out of the box will keep Carolina on a more balanced playing field with them. Staying out of the box will also allow Ilya Sorokin to peak. Sorokin gave up three goals or less in all six playoff starts against Carolina last season at even strength or better, holding them to two goals or less in four of those starts. Sorokin has proven he can keep the Isles in a series, especially against elite teams. With Sorokin at his best, the Isles must have Anders Lee turn back into the 40-goal scorer he was a few seasons ago. Discipline, Ilya Sorokin, and depth scoring from Anders Lee and his linemates will allow the Isles to get past the Carolina Hurricanes.

To beat the Rangers in a second-round matchup will happen if they can hold onto a lead. The Islanders have proven they can go toe-to-toe with the Rangers this season. Expectations fall heavier on the Rangers in a potential series, and they have proven to choke under pressure. Twice, the Isles blew late leads against the Rangers, and they should be in similar positions if they meet in a series. If the Isles can close out games against the Rangers, they will get through to an Eastern Conference Final. Brock Nelson will be a crucial player in getting those leads. Nelson has three goals and four assists against the Rangers this season and has been a catalyst for getting the Isles on the board early against the Rangers, scoring two of the Isles first goals and assisting on a third in three of the four games against them. Physicality will be imperative to the gameplay. The Isles must come in confidently, believing they can win the series and showing the Rangers they do.

A matchup against Toronto would be personal for the Isles. John Tavares would return to the Island for the first playoff matchup since he left. For this to happen in the second round, the Leafs would need to beat Boston, and Tampa Bay would need to beat Florida. They could also meet in the Confernce Finals. To get through Toronto, the Isles would need scoring. Sorokin’s play would come into play less because the Leafs are too skilled for the Isles in front of Sorokin, and if the Isles can’t shut them down in front of him, it will be a scoring frenzy for the Leafs. The Leafs have scored ten goals in their last four matchups against the Isles, all losses, so the Isles have proven they can do it.

Sorokin will matter more individually against Boston and Florida. The Isles won’t be able to compete offensively against these two teams in a long series. They will need multiple games out of Sorokin in which he gives up two goals or less. If the Isles can only give up three goals to these two teams no more than twice in the series, the Isles can win both.

I don’t project any of this happening. I expect the Isles to lose to Carolina in the first round, and you will read why in the series breakdown.

Playoff Prediction: First Round Loss to Carolina Hurricanes (1-4) 

Author: Nightghost