UFL Week 4
Power Rankings
- Birmingham Stallions
- St. Louis Battlehawks
- San Antonio Brahmas
- Michigan Panthers
- DC Defenders
- Memphis Showboats
- Arlington Renegades
- Houston Roughnecks
Memphis @ St. Louis – 12:30pm Saturday (4/20)
Memphis has yet to find their way through three games and currently sit at 1-2. Last week they took their lumps against the Birmingham Stallions and really couldn’t get anything moving on offense as Case Cookus got demolished. This is a mixture of him sitting in the pocket, waiting for things to develop and the relentless Stallions pass rush. However, this week the Battlehawks defense isn’t as imposing. The Battlehawks only have four sacks on the year which is 7th out of these 8 teams. They float in the middle of the pack with PFF grades in terms of tackling, pass rush, and coverage. I expect Cookus to have some more success here and be able to move the ball. I like Daewood Davis the most of this group with Sage Surratt second. As always, Jonathan Adams is an option as a long shot deep TD each and every week and Vinny Papale is a PPR option out of the slot. All four of these players rank in the top 10 in the UFL in total targets with Davis leading the way with 24 (3rd) followed by Adams (21), Surratt (18), and Papale (17). I’m not interested in Victor or Swen out of the backfield.
St. Louis is 2-1 as they barely escaped a win in Week 3 over the San Antonio Brahmas. To their credit, they played tight defense down the stretch and stepped up, stopping the Brahmas as they were driving the field with less than two minutes left. They will be back at home this week and playing in front of nearly 40,000 fans yet again on Saturday afternoon. As long as AJ McCarron is under center, you can’t bet against this team. McCarron is now 3rd in the UFL with 616 passing yards and is the only starting QB without a pick through three games. His favorite target continues to be Darius Shepherd who is still 4th in the UFL with 24 targets, catching 17 of them for 135 yards. Teammate Marcell Ateman is an option for DFS as well but 114 of his 177 receiving yards came in Week 2, making him tough to trust outside of big plays. Last week Butler came on with good consistent play, catching six of his eight targets for 87 yards and a score. On the ground, we saw Jacob Saylors emerge and push this to a split backfield with Mateo Durant. Saylors ran the ball seven times for 62 yards and a score with Durant running it eight times for 30 scoreless yards. Saylors caught one of his two targets for 11 yards and Durant caught all three of his targets for five yards. Both of them are viable for DFS, as are any of the three WRs. I wouldn’t stack this group as a whole given McCarron’s upside, even though he used his feet more than normal in Week 3. If I attacked this game with DFS, I would stack Cookus with two of his receivers and come back with one, if not both, of the Battlehawks RBs.
Prediction:
I think the Battlehawks win this game at the end of the day. Laying -7 isn’t something I typically do (spoiler alert, I will next) so I would like to hit this game live. I wouldn’t be opposed to parlaying their ML with Birmingham’s but we barely get to a playable line with that. I would rather wait and let Memphis get up and either attack the over, judging by the flow, or hitting the Battlehawks ML. This is a game though where I may unfortunately be laying off though if I can’t watch it which seems unlikely at the moment. I’ll be tied up this Saturday from 11-5 so I’ll miss the heart of this game. But, as always, be on alert if I find an edge with it live, especially if someone is down double digits late.
DC @ Birmingham – 7pm Saturday (4/20)
DC will forever be in the memory books with their comeback victory over the Renegades in Week 3. Even though they came back, this team isn’t as good as their 2-1 record indicates. Ta’amu isn’t playing well and their ground game has had little to no success. Ta’amu is completing a PUTRID 51.5% of his passes with a TERRIBLE 6.2 yards per attempt. He has done this against some of the more subpar defenses so far in the UFL and now has to face off against by far the best defense. The Birmingham Stallions are going to make life hell for this Ta’amu and this offensive line all game long. I’m not going to be playing anyone from this offense in DFS but if I wanted a dart throw, it would be Chris Rowland or Ty Scott. They are nothing more than a random cheap dart throw as they do not offer consistency or anything of promise in this matchup.
The Birmingham Stallions are a bit ridiculous if Adrian Martinez gets going like he did last week. He is clearly growing with his accuracy and getting used to this offense but with Matt Corral a little banged up, Martinez took every snap for the Stallions. If this continues, his growth should exceed what we saw from Alex McGough last year. In Week 3, Martinez completed 18 of 28 passes for 334 yards and two scores while adding 44 rushing yards and a rushing score on the ground. Deon Cain was the main target, catching seven of his eight targets for 144 yards. Cain now leads the UFL with 240 receiving yards and is 6th with 20 targets. Jace Sternberger also emerged back on to the scene with 73 receiving yards, catching four of his six targets and a score. I also want to note that in Marlon Williams’ first game back, he caught a 41 yard touchdown on a play he was able to get wide open. Williams is probably the best receiver on this team once it is all said and done. This offense is LOADED and is led by a coach who is head shoulders above his peers. You can start any of these guys in DFS. The way to attack DC is on the ground but if Marable and Person have success, you can’t stop the air game. This offense will rip off chunk play after chunk play. They are going to cover the spread and will score 4+ TDs themselves, probably more.
Prediction:
The Stallions are going to stomp the Defenders from the opening snap. As always, find a way to get their ML parlayed with other plays across other sports. I’ll be laying the points here for the first time this year and I also want a part of the over as I think the Stallions score 30+ again.
Michigan @ San Antonio – 7pm Saturday (4/20)
Michigan played well in Week 3 and contributed to my biggest miss (Houston Roughnecks ML) so far this season. They dominated on offense as the Roughnecks were unable to stop anything in the air and EJ Perry settled in, looking like a star. I think the Roughnecks defense just made Perry look good by not spying him and giving him lay up throws. That won’t happen in this game and facing a Wade Phillips defense is night and day as opposed to whatever Houston is running out there. Perry is only completing 63.2% of his passes with two scores and three picks but does have a generous 7.7 YPA. He has used his legs to help open lanes and take his deep shots, accumulating 102 rushing yards on 19 carries and four scores through just three games. That won’t happen here. Like I mentioned, Wade Phillips consistently has his guys ready to go, regardless of their talent level. They have accrued the 2nd best tackling metric (56) per PFF so far and bring in the 2nd best overall defense (72.9), per PFF. Across the board they rank well across the board due to this and will present a tough matchup for Perry, his toughest of the season. Marcus Simms is the only player I’d go with from this offense in DFS due to his speed. Trey Quinn could offer a cheaper PPR option and see 5+ high percentage targets but would need to trip and fall into the endzone to get you where you need to go.
After the dust has settled with the Brahmas losing their QB, Chase Garbers, to a season ending injury, I think this offense is still where we want them to be. Quinten Dormady is going to step into the starting spot and I actually like Dormady. I expected Dormady to be the Week 1 starter before Garbers jumped up and snagged it. Last year Dormady played for a bad Orlando Guardians team that he turned around once he took over. He completed 140 of his 205 passes (68.3%) for a respectable 1,507 yards (7.4 YPA) and threw 10 TDs, adding four on the ground. He offers dual threat ability, just like Garbers and his colleague, EJ Perry, in this game. I was excited preseason to see what AJ Smith would do with Dormady in this offense and I’ll be closely watching this game Saturday night. I think the perception across the fanbase and this league from people who watch will expect a drop off from Garbers to Dormady but I don’t think that will happen. I’ll be stacking Dormady with a mixture of Kirklin, Stevenson and Latimer. With Dormady only costing $6,000 on Draftkings, this opens the door and lets you play nearly anyone you want. Kirklin is the most expensive WR and you can easily fit him in. He has seen a robust 32 targets through three games, catching 23 of them for 166 yards and two scores. Cody Latimer is 7th with 19 targets, catching 16 for 156 yards and a score while Stevenson is 9th in the UFL with 18 targets, catching 15 of them for 156 yards and a score.
Prediction:
I think the Brahmas will win this game. I’ll be watching closely for the over but pregame, I’ll be on the Brahmas. We have value with the perceived drop down from Garbers to Dormady but as I mentioned, I don’t think it will be an issue. Pair that with Wade Phillips likely confusing and disrupting what makes EJ Perry comfortable, we’ll likely see a poor showing from the Michigan offense. If we see Michigan score and get into rhythm, I’ll be eying the over. Otherwise I’ll just ride the Brahmas’ ML.
Arlington @ Houston – 2pm Sunday (4/21)
Luiz Perez continues to be what this offense needs, which is a facilitator who protects the ball. He now leads the UFL by 110 passing yards with 737. He has a very generous 7.6 YPA, throwing for four scores so far, taking only five sacks and throwing one interception. Tyler Vaughns has been his main target thus far on the short season, seeing 27 targets, good for 2nd in the UFL. He has turned that into 17 receptions for 182 receiving yards and a score. Last week he saw a robust 13 targets, catching nine of them for 109 yards and a score. The connection between the two seems to be growing and I would consider Vaughns in any lineup I make for DFS as a one off. Behind him last week was Sal Cannella, who finally showed up with a solid game. He caught four of his eight targets for 48 scoreless yards. On the ground, Leddie Brown emerged and took some snaps away from De’Veon Smith. Brown ran the ball 10 times for 40 rushing yards but also caught four of his five targets for 36 receiving yards. If I were to go after this backfield this week, it would be Brown. The Roughnecks boast a very good rush defense so I will not be attacking there.
The Roughnecks are in tough shape. They fell to 0-3 last week and looked completely outmatched and overwhelmed by the Michigan Panthers. They started off crisp on offense, driving down the field and converting third down after third down, having Reid Sinnett look in control of the offense. Things went sideways after as Sinnett finished the game going 19 of 28 for 197 yards with one score and one pick, adding five carries for 19 yards and a score on the ground. In Sinnett’s first start, Justin Hall predictably led the team with seven targets, catching five of them for 35 yards and a score. After him Cyril Grayson caught five of his six targets for 40 yards and Emmanuel Butler caught three of his five targets for 64 yards. Justin Hall is the only viable option from this receiving group due to his volume mixed with playmaking abilities. The only interest I would have in this backfield is if Mark Thompson returns, which in that scenario I would like this offense a TON more. Thompson is the type of back in this league that will change the outcome of games. I won’t be able to properly predict this game until I have clarity on Thompson.
Prediction:
As I just mentioned, this is a wait and see for me. If Thompson is active, I think we once again have value on the Roughnecks even though they just trounced us last Sunday. This game is in Houston but that shouldn’t mean much. If Thompson is active, Arlington (61.9) has the 2nd worst run defense behind DC (55.2) in terms of PFF grade. They also boast the worst defensive grade overall (55.8) in the league. This Houston team runs through a consistent ground game and they were unable to produce that last week with TJ Pledger. If they can rely on Thompson for 15+ touches and build from there, they have a decent shot at pulling off this upset against a poor Arlington defense. On top of that, we’ll see more points bred from there.
Plays
- DC/BIRM o47 (-110): 2u – Draftkings
- Birmingham Stallions -7.5 (+100): 3u – Fanduel
- San Antonio ML (-110): 3u – Draftkings
NOTE: If you want action on the 12pm game, I would say play the over. I think you can wait until a few minutes in to hit it. If you have any questions during or right before the game, ask me in chat and tag me. I won’t have any official plays for this game unless I hit it live.
