Good Morning Everyone,
We swept the NHL last night with the Hurricanes team’s total win and two shot props. Carolina’s win was big, pulling them within one point of the Rangers. The division, the top spot in the East, and the President’s Trophy (most points in the entire league) are still on the line for the Rangers, who kick off the slate with an important game (for both teams) against the Islanders at 12:30 p.m. The NHL playoffs start next Saturday, April 20th. If you plan on being around for the playoffs, stick around for your renewals, there will also be a playoff package if you are not interested in the other sports. I am putting out a playoff guide to break down each team and matchup. I will have our series bets, futures, and props out in the guide. We will also introduce a Fantasy Football product available for purchase on April 30th and include content from Sanaynay, Myself, and Zab.
The Rangers have my lean heading into the 12:30 p.m. I personally will not be playing it as an Isles fan. Noah Dobson and Matt Martin are banged up for the Isles and the Isles are in trouble if Dobson is out for an extended period of time. Semyon Varlamov has the better numbers against the Rangers and I would prefer to see him start again. Ilya Sorokin is not having the Vezina year he is used to and is 3-3-1 against the Rangers with a GAA of 3.36 compared to Varly’s 7-5-1 record against them but with a 2.36 GAA. The Isles have looked very good against the Rangers this year, but you can visibly see when they’re not playing confidently. The loss from the outdoor game, in which the Isles blew a three-goal lead, carried into their following matchup, where the Rangers dominated from the start of the second period until the final whistle. I see this game going similarly to the Rangers 5-2 without Dobson and Martin as opposed to the Isles’ most recent win against them. The money line is high for the Rangers, but not as high as it should be. Their team total should be 3.5 here, not 3, three should be -175. As mentioned, I personally will not be playing this game, but I expect a commanding win for the Rangers.
Dallas can lock up the Central division with a win against Seattle and still win the Presidents Trophy. Dallas has won five of the last six matchups, including their playoff matchup last season. However, Dallas hasn’t been as dominant over Seattle as they’ve been in the past, so I’m not rushing to make a play on Dallas here. Dallas can play slow at times and lose important games and with 13 games on the slate and fourteen of the sixteen playoff spots already determined, I prefer to look elsewhere.
Winnipeg and Colorado are tied in points for second and third in the Central division, with Winnipeg holding the tiebreaker. Colorado picked a terrible time to lose five of their last eight, taking themselves all but out of the division race and losing home ice in the first round. Both Colorado (Winnipeg, Vegas, Edmonton) and Winnipeg (Colorado, Seattle, Vancouver) have three games left and have very tough schedules. Winnipeg has climbed back into the second spot after winning five in a row following their six-game slide. I expect Colorado to flip the script here and come out on top. I see this game going similarly to Thursday’s Detroit/Pittsburgh game. While I second-guessed myself on the over in that game, I expected the game to go into overtime. These two have played higher-scoring games of late, with six or more goals in seven of their last nine, but this game should be played much tighter. The Avalanche line of -145 to win is the most appealing line for me unless you can get Colorado’s team total over 2.5 live or 3 much cheaper than -175.
Florida can still claim the Atlantic Division but are a point behind Boston and have played one more game. Boston closes out the regular season with games against Pittsburgh (1-1), Washington (1-1), and Ottawa (2-0) and have the more favorable end to the season than Florida (Buffalo/Toronto). Florida should control this game from start to finish but I prefer to wait until goalie confirmations before deciding how to play Florida.
I made a late decision on Thursday to play the Flyers over the Rangers and we came out on the right side of it. I already has hesitations on the Rangers coming off their loss to the Isles and when Jonathan Quick was confirmed in net for them I felt a lot more confident jumping on the +170 money line and 2.5 team total for Philly. The Flyers face the toughest challenge to get the playoffs after blowing their division spot. Philly only has two games left compared to the three games the Isles, Penguins, Capitals, and Red Wings all have. Jack Hughes being out for the Devils helps their chances here at home but it’s no guarantee. The Devils lineup is deep and what they lack most is maturity and leadership. The money line of -120 is low enough for us to take the Flyers if we want but if I were to play this game I would wait for Philly’s team total over 2.5 to drop within the -140 range. 3.5 should open up at plus money and when we finally do see 2.5 we should be able to afford it. We will need to hope Philly doesn’t score too early if we want to get on this game but it’s not a game I prefer.
Tampa Bay really let us down Thursday night going scoreless in the final 47 minutes of the game. Tampa scored two goals in just over three minutes 12:56 into the first period against Ottawa and were shutout for the rest of the game losing in a shootout to the lowly Sens. Tampa is pretty much locked into the first wild card spot with a low likelihood of them passing Toronto for the third spot in the Atlantic. Mathematically Tampa Bay is not eliminated from doing so but they would need to win their final three games with Toronto losing their final three for that to happen. Tampa can play spoiler here to the Caps and they will want to get back in the win column after dropping two of their last three. In the past 13 games, Tampa has failed to score more than three goals 11 times. I will be taking Tampa to win outright in this game once goalies are confirmed. I expect Tampa Bay to win this game in a 3-1 / 3-2 / 4-1 / 4-2 type fashion if Andrei Vasilevskiy is confirmed in net.
Montreal ahs dropped the last eight meetings with the Sens but it would technically bode better for Ottawa if they drop this game and fall into the bottom five of the league in points. It’s tough to trust either team in a situation where losing works out better for them. Montreal has dropped four of five and Ottawa has been playing much better since dropping seven in a row in the beginning of March. I would much rather stay off this game and allocate units elsewhere having no confidence either team shows up to win. Ottawa should come out on top and their team total of three seems likely but I would much rather prefer the trash play with each other here and see which loser comes out on top.
Toronto has dropped two of three meetings with New Jersey over the last month giving up six goals to them twice and the Leafs continue to show why they are a glorified playoff team who love to lose in the first round. There are only two current playoff teams who give up more goals per game than Toronto and it’s the Islanders and Lightning (who went the first month and a half without Andrei Vasilevskiy in net). Toronto’s chances of catching Florida for home ice are the same as Tampa’s chances of catching the Leafs so momentum is what Toronto is playing for most here. Detroit is in a must win situation for the rest of the season so I expect this game to be wide open with a lot of scoring. The books agree with this total at 6.5 -130. Detroit has won three of the last four meetings with Toronto scoring four or more in those three wins. Detroit’s team total of 2.5 is enticing to me if you want to double down and take a side in this game. Both teams should hit the three goal mark with this game being a potential ladder game. I am going to splash the total of 9 at +425. Speaking of which, I’d like to clarify my playing of “ladders.” A ladder to me is when you consistently play three or more consecutive totals for multiple units (i.e. 5.5, 6, 6.5 for example) and then splash the plus money plays consecutively. If you see me play two consecutive totals and a high plus money play, I do not consider that a ladder. If I expect a certain total to hit, I may play the second total for less units to save juice on the lower total I play, but that is not me laddering the game. An instance here where I play 6.5 for 2-3 units and then splash a total of 9 means I am looking to hit a high plus money value on a game I think can go to the moon. This is playing just for exposure. Baseball is more likely to see ladders since each line in MLB jumps in increments of full runs whereas hockey allows you to play each goal total on the half. Playing a 3.5 team total and 4 is not me laddering, that is me expecting 3.5 to hit giving us a better line on the total of 4 I expect to push at worst. So in this instance where I am playing 6.5 and 9, don’t consider this a ladder and play 9 looking for the nice payout.
I regret not playing Nashville’s total against the Blackhawks even though we hit the Jason Zucker prop. Nashville against the Hawks is one of my favorite matchups to play especially if you’ve been a Preds fan during Chicago’s cup winning years. There is a rivalry there and Nashville really struggled to get past Chicago for a while. Now they dominate them. For some reason Nashville really struggles to score against the Blue Jackets. I am going to fade Nashville here with them on a back to back against a team they don’t tend to dominate. Juuse Saros is out for the Preds as well and Jason Zucker’s shot prop isn’t even listed right now.
Like the Rangers, Boston is still playing for the President’s Trophy, the division, and top seed in the East against a Penguins team who needs a win themselves to stay ahead of the pack chasing their wild card spot and potentially catch the Isles for third in the Metro, especially if the Isles lose today. Pittsburgh has been riddled with mistakes on defense and the Bruins can and should capitalize on them. The 5.5 game total is too low for this matchup. Sidney Crosby reached the 40 goal mark this year for surprisingly, only the third time in his career, but continues to show why he is still one of the best in the league. I don’t expect Pit to win here, although not unlikely, but I don’t expect them to keep pace offensively at the end of the game. I expect this to be a back and forth goal for goal affair with Boston pulling away when the game is on the line. I will be hitting 5.5 pregame as one of my higher total plays on the day and will be looking to splash whoever is losing this game with 10 minutes left if it’s a one or two goal game.
Official plays:
- 7:08 pm Detroit/Toronto over 6.5 -130: 3u
- 7:08 pm Detroit/Toronto over 9 +425: 1u
- 8:08 pm Boston/Pittsburgh over 5.5-140: 3u
