Gameflows

Thursday 12/15 Game Notes

12/15 Game Notes

December 15th, 2022
Ghost

Anaheim vs Montreal:

Both these teams are bad teams. Both of these teams have a wide range of offensive ability. Montreal has a much better defensive ability. What history tells us in this matchup is that both teams will score. There’s the possibility of using 4.5 in an alt-line parlay, but playing this game with other more preferable matchups on this slate isn’t necessary. I like the direction that Montreal is going with their rebuild. They’re playing this season like they want to win, they’re getting their young talent experience, and they should be able to acquire more at the deadline. Anaheim’s sole focus is the draft and Connor Bedard and you shouldn’t let anyone else tell you otherwise. The Ducks have very young skilled talent on this team so it makes getting goals from them possible. They are very weak defensively averaging over 4 goals against per game, 4.27 to be exact. For me, being that this is an out of conference game with two bad teams, I don’t feel this is a high value game to target.

 

I think if you run this matchup 10 times you’re getting 60/40 results meaning either team will win 6 of the 10, and total wise the over could hit 6 of the 10. You’re rolling the dice on which outcome you are going to get in this one game that happens twice a year. I think Montreal being home gives them a better edge defensively and you could run into a 3-1 / 4-1 / 3-2 type game. 

Possible plays:

Alt over 3.5 / 4.5 

Montreal ML

Columbus vs Tampa Bay:

Tampa Bay is coming around nicely and finds themselves in a game they should win easily. They have 11 wins in their last 14 games, and two of those losses are against the Boston Bruins. They are hot and find themselves in a matchup against a team giving up 4+ goals per game. There are plenty of ways to play this and they all involve the Lightning. I don’t see a Columbus team coming into Tampa Bay and stealing one on the road with how Tampa has been playing. The pregame lines for offshores are pushing having any value. Their ML has to be parlayed at -335 so playing them with a team like Boston gets you down to -110. Their team total is going to be a heavy 3.5 or 4/4.5 and I don’t like laying close to -200 to get 4 goals, but you can. I do think they will get there. I just don’t feel they are -182 worthy of playing to get there. For those who have alt-lines, using 2.5 as a parlay piece is definitely viable. Tampa is the most likely to score and win outright tonight and they’re making you pay for it. This is one of those games for me where you’re more upset that you played it and lost than you are not playing it and seeing them hit.

Dallas vs Washington:

GOing to be honest and say I have 0 lean or 0 outlook on this game. I have not watched these two teams play over the years and have 0 interest in this matchup. I was very high on Washington coming into the season for when they’re fully healthy. They’re not fully healthy, Overchkin is chasing milestones, they’re playing great as of late, and are heading into a division leading Stars team. This game would be a statement for the Caps. I don’t think they win it, though. I don’t want to be heavily invested in this game and don’t have a true lean like I mentioned but I would consider the Stars tt of 1.5 to give a little extra juice to a parlay.

Kings vs Boston:

History between these two will project opposite of what I am expecting tomorrow. The road team in this matchup has won 7 of the last 8 games. Boston is the best team in the league right now and the best team at home. Boston has the second best offense going up against the fifth worst defensive goals against team so I am building my night around the Bruins. Their ML is a parlay piece for any book and the team total of 2.5 is a parlay piece for me. The Bruins should win this in a 3-2 / 4-2 type matchup so I prefer not playing the Bruins 3.5 total, you may be pushing it.

Philadelphia vs New Jersey:

I don’t like playing the Devils in metro division games against the Islanders and Flyers. Games against the Rangers and Capitals are over games, but playing against the Islanders and FLyers always brings out inconsistency. I have 0 interest in anything here. 

Florida vs Penguins:

I’m expecting a wide open game tomorrow and this will be my favorite total on the board. The Penguins have been one of the best teams in the league winning 8 of their last 10. Pitt surprisingly has been much better defensively over this stretch which I believe bends tomorrow going on the road. I’m playing this over whether I can get 5.5, 6, or 6.5 so this is in play for everyone. I’m expecting each team to go back and forth trading goals. This is a game we should see each team put up 3 goals cashing the offshores 6.5. 

Seattle vs Carolina:

Seattle is going to come back down to earth and tonight is going to be a serious test. This game should line up to be a low scoring one sided Carolina win. Carolina hasn’t given up a goal in two games and has been getting incredible goaltending no matter who is in net. Seattle should struggle offensively so the only interest I have is in Carolina’s ML or their team total of 2 or 2.5. 

I expect this game to end in a 3-2 / 4-1 / 3-1 type finish.

 

Standard Pregame Plays:
Nashville/Winnipeg over 5.5 -155: 3u
Tampa Bay ML / Carolina ML -105: 1u
Tampa Bay ML / Carolina ML -118: 1u
Pitt/Florida over 5.5: 1u
Montreal TT over 3 -162: 2u


Offshore Plays:
Nashville/Winnipeg over 6 -120: 3u
Tampa Bay ML / Carolina ML -105: 1u
Tampa Bay ML / Carolina ML -118: 1u

Alt Line Preferred Play: *You can play multiple alt line parlays instead of the standard plays. These plays are usually played for top units.*

Tampa TT over 2.5 / Boston TT over 2.5 / Pitt-FLA game over 3.5 -136: MAX PLAY (no standard pregame plays)

Boston TT 2.5 / Tampa TT over 2.5 / Sabres-Colorado over 3.5 -141 MAX PLAY (no standard pregame plays)

Additional Parlay Pieces:
Upper Tier Plays: Tampa Bay TT over 2.5, Preds/Winnipeg over 4.5,
Pieces for extra + money juice: Carolina TT over 2 / Montreal TT over 1.5

Nightghost
Author: Nightghost

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