Gameflows

Week 15 Saturday 12/17 (GPP – Main)

I personally love these all-day, three-game slates so I’ll be playing heavy. 

 

If anyone has any questions on how to approach this with DFS or how I’m personally betting it, please let me know in chat. 

 

Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3) MIN -4, O/U 47.5

The Colts are coming off a bye and Vegas has this as basically a pick ’em as they visit the 10-3 Minnesota Vikings. Vegas is privy to the fact the Vikings are frauds and they’ve actually been cumulatively outscored this year overall by a point. Kevin O’Connell is a fake sharp and it showed glaringly last week when he repeatedly ran into the stout Lions front line while the air game was working. This is going to be a clash of the “best at” as the Colts excel at running the ball on offense while the Vikings excel at stopping the run on defense. The edge here should go to the Colts since they are coming off a bye and Vegas seems to agree. The Vikings haven’t been able to stop anything in the air so that bodes well for Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell. On the flip side, the Colts haven’t been able to stop the run to save their life so it will benefit Dalvin Cook. I do think the Vikings pull out the win and this is definitely a game I could see Super Teasing on all four angles. 

 

Preferred Game Stack

QB: Matt Ryan

RB: Dalvin Cook

WR: Michael Pittman

WR: Parris Campbell

 

Baltimore Ravens (9-4) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8) CLE -3, O/U 38

I’ve had a hard time wrapping my head around this spread. Divisional games are always tight and the Ravens vs. the Browns is no exception. Vegas is both saying Tyler Huntley is going to quarterback this Ravens offense and saying it won’t matter, the 5-8 Browns are still just as good as the division leading 9-4 Ravens. The Ravens and Browns also line up perfectly for a game stack. The Browns can’t stop the run and the Ravens can’t stop perimeter WRs. This bodes well for my favorite prop bet on the day, Gus Edwards, as well. I like the over 38 here and the Ravens getting 3 points. 

 

Preferred Game Stack

QB: Deshaun Watson (Or Tyler Huntley)

RB: Gus Edwards

WR: Amari Cooper

WR: Donovan Peoples-Jones

TE: Mark Andrews

 

Miami Dolphins (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (10-3) BUF -7, O/U 44

I dislike Tua Tagovailoa this week. This spot couldn’t be any more of a smash spot for the Bills against the QB who is two weeks removed from MVP conversation. Tua has an awful track record of playing in the cold, although a limited sample size. This game is going to be in the high 20’s with precipitation (snow or rain), have 10-15 mph sustained winds, and a projected 9+ inches of snow in the area during the game. He also has played very bad against two good pass defenses the last two weeks. This week is no exception as the Bills are still playing top tier defense across the board. His head coach, Mike McDaniel, hasn’t done him any favors either by almost abandoning the run. Tua hasn’t looked accurate and his WRs aren’t wide open like they were. The Bills are flat out a better team almost across the board and they will want revenge after losing in Miami earlier in the year. I won’t be stacking this game because of the weather and my thoughts that Tua won’t be able to push the game. I would prefer one-off players here like Devin Singletary or Dawson Knox. I’m willing to lay the 7 in favor of the Bills and I also like playing under on Miami’s team total. 

 

Preferred Game Stack

QB: Josh Allen

RB: None

WR: Stefon Diggs

WR: Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle

TE: Dawson Knox

 

NFL Rank in PPR PPG Allowed Per Position Since Week 7:

QB

  1. MIN (22.2)
  2. MIA (20)
  3. BUF (15.6)
  4. IND (15.5)
  5. CLE (15.1)
  6. BAL (13.2)

 

RB

  1. CLE (27)
  2. IND (26.8)
  3. MIN (25)
  4. MIA (23.9)
  5. BUF (23.4)
  6. BAL (18)

 

WR

Wide

  1. MIN (19.9)
  2. BAL (17.2)
  3. CLE (16.5)
  4. MIA (14)
  5. BUF (12.9)
  6. IND (11.9)

 

Slot

  1. MIN (27)
  2. BUF (24.7)
  3. MIA (17.2)
  4. CLE (16.3)
  5. BAL (15.2)
  6. IND (14.9

 

TE

  1. MIA (15.5)
  2. BAL (10.6)
  3. MIN (8.9)
  4. BUF (8.7)
  5. CLE (8.3)
  6. IND (8)

 

NFL Rank in PPR PPG Allowed Per Position All Season:

QB

  1. MIA (20.8)
  2. MIN (20.6)
  3. BAL (17.4)
  4. IND (16.3)
  5. CLE (15.7)
  6. BUF (14.1)

 

RB

  1. CLE (27.7)
  2. IND (25.7)
  3. MIA (24.2)
  4. MIN (24)
  5. BUF (20.9)
  6. BAL (20.1)

 

WR

Wide

  1. MIN (16.7)
  2. CLE (16.6)
  3. BAL (16)
  4. BUF (14.5)
  5. MIA (13.8)
  6. IND (11.6)

 

Slot

  1. MIN (24.4)
  2. BAL (20.3)
  3. BUF (19.8)
  4. MIA (19.1)
  5. CLE (16.4)
  6. IND (13.8)

 

TE

  1. MIA (14.9)
  2. MIN (11.9)
  3. IND (11.4)
  4. BAL (11.4)
  5. BUF (9.4)
  6. CLE (8.8)

 

DFS Plays

QB

Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts – $5,200/$6,900)

Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills – $8,300/$9,000)

Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns – $6,300/$6,800)

Tyler Huntley (Baltimore Ravens – $5,300/$6,700)

 

RB

Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings – $6,900/$8,200)

Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills – $5,500/$6,500)

Gus Edwards (Baltimore Ravens – $5,000/$5,900)

Jonathan Taylor (High Ownership) (Indianapolis Colts – $7,200/$9,000)

 

Value Play: 

Kareem Hunt (Cleveland Browns – $4,300/$5,600)

James Cook (Buffalo Bills – $4,800/$5,300)

 

WR

Michael Pittman (Indianapolis Colts – $5,800/$)

Donovan Peoples-Jones (Cleveland Browns – $5,100/$)

Justin Jefferson (High Ownership) (Minnesota Vikings – $9,100/$)

Amari Cooper (Cleveland Browns – $6,100/$)

Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills – $8,100/$)

 

Value Play

Devin Duvernay (Baltimore Ravens – $4,300/$)



TE

Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens – $5,700/$6,500)

Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills – $3,900/$5,300)

David Njoku (Cleveland Browns – $4,200/$6,000)

 

Value Play: Isaiah Likely (Baltimore Ravens – $2,600/$4,500)



DST

Buffalo Bills ($2,700/$4,800)

Minnesota Vikings ($3,000/$3,900)

Miami Dolphins ($2,300/$3,200)

 

Favorite Bets

IND/MIN

Dalvin Cook over 67.5 Rushing Yards

Dalvin Cook 1+ TD

Matt Ryan over 251.5 Passing Yards

Michael Pittman over 70.5 Receiving Yards

Parris Campbell over 40.5 Receiving Yards

 

BAL/CLE

Gus Edwards over 37.5 Rushing Yards

Gus Edwards 1+ TD

Donovan Peoples-Jones over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Donovan Peoples-Jones 1+ TD

 

MIA/BUF

Tua Tagovailoa under 234.5 Passing Yards *Chat got this line around 242.5/241.5

Devin Singletary over 40.5 Rushing Yards

Devin Singletary over 10.5 Rushing Attempts

Devin Singletary 1+ TD

Josh Allen 1+ TD





Sanaynay
Author: Sanaynay

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