Thursday 2/15 Betting Notes

Nightghost

February 15, 2024
6:19 pm

Good evening Gentlemen, Ladies, and Butters,

I apologize for the late article, and instead of doing a game by game breakdown I am going to talk through each matchup like I did previously. I will touch on each game and why or why I am not making a play on it and allow you to decide if you still want to play it personally or how. Starting with Boston and Seattle, I love Boston here based on their history. After Seattle won nine in a row, they’ve lost eight of their past eleven. The three games they won were against Chicago, Columbus, and their most recent game was a win against the Islanders. What I like here is that the lines are coming in low enough to get us Boston’s team total on the flat three. In four previous matchups against Seattle, their only time not putting up three goals was in a shutout loss. I will decide by the end of the article where I rank Boston’s edge here to play the team total, but their offensive power should be enough to get them there minimum. Boston is also coming off two straight losses to Washington and Tampa Bay and this is the game they should rebound. This is a spot I see similar to Florida and Buffalo. Florida is coming off a win on the road in Pittsburgh last night in a game that I expected them to win. Florida has been streaky this year and are coming over seven wins in eight games. That should continue tonight. Like Boston, their team total comes in at 3. I want to be on both teams here so if you have the ability to alt-line, I would package their 1.5’s with another game or two. These two games have trap written all over them with the possibility of both teams winning in a 2-1 type fashion.

The Kings have been reeling, they’ve fired their coach, and they embarrassed me on Tuesday by giving up seven goals to the Sabres while getting shutout. Our only blemish on the night was here. The Devils are banged up with Palat being a game time decision, Vitek sidelines giving Nico Dawes his third start in a row, and no Dougie Hamilton. The Kings need to rebound so I am steering away from this game. If you want to play this game I would play the Devils ML or the over 5.5. With Daws in net, the injuries to New Jersey, and the Kings being embarrassed in Buffalo, this could be a back and forth shootout. The Devils should win, but there are other games I like a lot more. We are still in a position where we want to build off our momentum and keep plays limited and precise.

I am staying away from Ottawa and Anaheim, as I feel these are two mediocre to bad teams playing an out of conference matchup in Canada. Each team has the ability to no-show, or play bad enough to get blown out. There isn’t enough confidence in this matchup for me to care to play it. Colorado vs. Tampa Bay is next, and this is a game I would like to play Colorado. Justus Annunen is in net for Colorado taking away every ounce of interest I had in playing Colorado. With Annunen in net, I like Tampa Bay’s total more, especially at three. This is a night where I like a lot of early leans with totals at three, but am staying away because it seems too easy and chalky. The plays I like most are the later slates so let’s end this one with the Leafs and Flyers. This is the chalkiest of the plays, but the one I want to make the most. Toronto has alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break, but again, their team total has come in at three. The whole 7pm slate seems like a trap. Toronto has dominated the series with Philly as of late putting up four or more goals in their last five meetings and have won seven of the last ten. I think the 7pm slate is going to give us a lot of low scoring underdog wins if these lines are telling me anything. The books seem to want us to play every favorites total of three. If you disagree, you can use any of this to make the plays you prefer.

Edmonton is a target for me tonight bt as a two unit play. They’re in a matchup I expect them to dominate, but getting their total at 3.5 on the road is why I am playing it for no more than units instead of three. The Oilers have turned the season around since their coaching change, winning 16 in a row and 18 of their last 20. Their offense has been hit or miss for us even during their winning streak as they failed to put up four goals in nearly half of those games. I’m going to be cautiously optimistic that they can get it done against a sub-par Blues team and seal an empty net for us at worst. Pittsburgh is coming off an opening night loss to Connor Bedard and the Hawks, and a loss last night to the Panthers. Pittsburgh should run this score up tonight and they’re a team I want to mini ladder, and hit live if they open it up early. I also want Sid props tonight having something to prove to this kid especially in his building. Their team total as well is three… let me speak on this for a second… It seems as though books are catching up to the lack of scoring and team totals and are bringing lines down. This is going to be where we make all our money back in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh team total will be a max bet for us. They’re on a three game losing streak and are falling to the bottom of the Metro division. Like the Islanders a few weeks ago, if Pittsburgh doesn’t win this game, there could be some changes coming. The Penguins are seven points out of a wild card as of right now and desperately need this win.

I love Calgary here in this spot against the Flames but not for this price. With Dustin Wolf in net I like the over in this game. Where I would prefer to lay the juice is in the Vancouver game. I fucked up not playing the Oilers/Wings total the other night because of the start time. I expect both teams to score here, and am debating on laying the juice of -190 on 5.5. Either way I will be playing the over, I am just deciding on which number.

Official Plays: