10/26
Colorado vs. Pittsburgh
We were on the right side of each team Tuesday night. Colorado looks very good right now, the Penguins do not. Colorado is 6-0 heading into tonight’s matchup in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has struggled all around this season. We hit the Stars team total against the Pens and we will aim to do the same here. Colorado should move up to 7-0 after tonight but I see it in a high scoring game. Alex Georgiev has started every game for the Av’s this season and could get the night off tomorrow. Tristan Jarry looks to be in net for Pitt. Jarry has not looked good outside of a shutout against the Capitals. Pittsburgh should not be able to keep up with Colorado’s speed in tonight’s game but I do expect them to contribute to this game offensively. Expect Colorado to have the same offensive game they did against the Islanders. This game should go over the 6 total with Colorado netting a minimum of three. This is another spot where laying the juice to get the lower team total is worth it with the books offering the Av’s total at 3 for -175. People can say all they want about the fact I like to lay the juice, but it’s justified when you’re able to do it in the right spots and build a padded bankroll.
San Jose vs. Tampa Bay
San Jose hasn’t won a game yet. They’ve scored exactly one goal in five of their six games. We bet this team has the worst record in the league and they’re trending that way. San Jose has been giving up closer to four goals per game and head into a matchup with a Tampa Bay team that has scored three or more goals in their last seven matchups. This game from a betting perspective comes down to how San Jose will contribute. I don’t play -1.5 lines unless I’m trying to hit a long odds parlay, so playing the Lightning -1.5 is not a preference for me, and laying -300 on the money line isn’t worth it. This game for me comes down to the total. Tampa Bay getting to a minimum of three goals should be a given. The Lightning team total of 3.5 is the obvious play for me here, but I want this game total as well. If the Sharks can put up two goals tonight, which any NHL team should be able to do on every given night, this game should see 7+ goals.
Anaheim vs. Boston
It’s important to read my last write up about Boston. I do not believe this team is a true powerhouse in the league like their undefeated schedule might suggest. The Bruins schedule has been weak, and they are not playing like a team offensively that will be able to compete in tougher matchups. THe Bruins have been able to beat up on weak Western Conference teams cycling through Chicago twice, and now facing Anaheim for a second time. I just don’t find any value on any of their lines, and don’t trust this team to get us four goals on a given night to cash a team total. To play them on the money line means you need to parlay them to buy the line down and I just don’t find it to be worth it.
Seattle vs. Carolina
This is one of my favorite matchups on the slate. The lines are higher than I was hoping they would be and are pulling me back. Carolina is back home and had yesterday off so I expect them to be in better shape physically than they were on their West Coast trip. However, the ML and 3 team total both being -200 is a tough lay. Seattle is having a tough year and I don’t expect them to improve anytime soon. Burakovsky remains out for the Kraken for the next 4-6 weeks and is a major part of this offense. I am worried that Carolina will be able to shut this game down defensively at home and win in a 3-1 / 3-2 type fashion. I may target this game live. The game should start a little slow and give us an opportunity to get the total of 3 at a better line or possibly even 2.5.
Winnipeg vs. Detroit
Winnipeg is a better team than they’ve shown so far this season, but their win against St. Louis was a good way to get back on track. Detroit has played phenomenally on offense but still have some learning and maturing to do. The Wings blew their most recent game to Seattle in a high scoring game that we maxed the over on. We read that game correctly and it paid us off. Tonight is a game I see going in a similar fashion. Both teams are effective offensively and the books are offering us the 5.5 total at -165. Alex Debrincat did not practice yesterday dealing with an illness. His status tonight is imperative to how we play this game. If Debrincat is out, I will be taking the Jets to win outright. If Debrincat plays, I will be max betting this over. These two play fast paced open games and see a lot of scoring. This is a game I want to be on and expect more than 6 goals from. We need to keep a close eye on the news here because the lines are in danger of jumping significantly once Debrincat is confirmed in or out.
Columbus vs. Montreal
The last time these two met, Montreal put up eight goals. Columbus should win tonight and with the line so low I feel there is value in them but they’re still the Columbus Blue Jackets. I don’t have confidence in this team and who they are each night is a roll of the dice. Elvis Merzlikins has played sharper to start the season and has a better defensive presence in front of him. On paper, this is a complete mismatch in line and should be a -160 line in Columbus’ favor.
Senators vs. Islanders
I want zero to do with this game. I have expressed my concern with the Islanders this year offensively and come in with a Vezina contender in net. The Islanders defense does not play well and secure against good offensive teams giving up 12 total goals (empty net included) in two games against New Jersey and Colorado. A matchup between the Sens and Isles are not betting worthy. If you’re looking for a low scoring 3-2 type game then this is where you want to be. I do not. Move on.
Minnesota vs. Philadelphia
This is a severe mispriced line here and we are going to hammer it. I’ve talked about how we are dealing with PTSD from the Wild from last season and have been targeting them in specific instances to start the season this year. This is a spot where we are going to take our wins from previous wins from them and lay it into tonight’s game. Philly is a team that starts the season hot before fading into the basement where they belong. Minnesota is being underpriced in their matchups as well allowing us to take full advantage. There is no reason this line should be -130 for Minnesota here. Why is it? Three reasons. Minnesota is on the road, Carter Hart is in net for Philly, and Minnesota is giving up goals. The Wild are giving up goals against good teams like Toronto, Los Angeles, and Edmonton, but should play better against Philly’s limited offense. This is a game I am willing to take a loss on with the line being so low. Minnesota has fared well against Carter Hart in the past leaving him with a 2-2-1 record and a 3.76 GAA. I expect Minnesota to score 3-4 minimum tonight and leave Philly with the win.
Toronto vs. Dallas
Scott Wedgewood is in net for Dallas and I jumped on this line right away. Toronto typically starts the season slow and struggles on West Coast trips early, but I still believe in the Leafs as a top team. Getting the team total at 2.5 with Wedgewood in net is a significant advantage in our favor and I want to get on it before the line hits 3 or over -200. This should be an exciting matchup on both sides that could see a lot of goals. Dallas offensive, as mentioned before, has been good. They’ve done what they’ve needed to to win games and play very good defensive hockey, especially with a Vezina calibur goalie in net. With Oetter out, I expect the game to open up a bit here and Toronto’s defense has been just as susceptible to giving up goals as they are to scoring them.
Calgary vs. St. Louis
Normally I would want the over here, especially getting it at 5.5. These two teams are bad. Jordan Binnington has been the bright spot for the Blues going 2-1-1 with a 1.69 GAA. We will ladder this game if Binnington doesn’t start, and just play 5.5 / 6 if he does. St. Louis offense has been anemic scoring only 10 goals in five games. Their only success offensively came against the Penguins, go figure. Calgary hasn’t played much better offensively scoring 17 goals in seven games. The books expect this to be a bad game offensively with Markstrom and Binnington in net. I don’t. This game should be sloppy with a lot of scoring chances and I see both goaltenders being hung out to dry.
Rangers vs. Edmonton
This is a game we should be sweating late night in chat together. McDavid is out, but this game should still be exciting and filled with goals. If anyone remembers the goal McDavid scored on the Rags last year weaving through four defenders, expect more of that tonight from the rest of the lineups. Edmonton is thirsty for a win and they’re being embarrassed to start the season. The Rangers are run by a no bullshit coach who doesn’t accept sloppy or disappointing play. This line should not be available at 5.5. The game over should be juice to -130 on the 6.5 in my opinion. Igor most likely gets the start tonight for the Rangers, and Jack Campbell in net for the Oilers would be a huge boost for the Rangers side of the total. I am going to continue to ride the Rangers here as well playing their team total of 3 on top of the game over. This should prove to be an exciting high scoring back and forth game with a Rangers win.
