Good Morning Everyone,
Monday’s suck and so did the Kraken last night. Two goals in the first weren’t good enough to at least get us the team total for the night. I’m going to make my two big plays for tonight and give you the recommendations for any additional plays you may want to make. There are thirteen games on tap so I know the itch to make multiple plays is there, but after a night like last night I want to get in, aim small, hit big, and call it a night. I plan to do the same on Thursday as well. For tonight the game I am targeting first is in Nashville. Nashville has won the last nine meetings between these two and the Preds are one of the hottest teams in the league winning twelve of their last fourteen. MacKenzie Blackwood hasn’t played in nearly three weeks due to injury but could get the start tonight giving Magnus Chrona the night off. Blackwood is 0-3-1 against the Preds with a 4.55 GAA against them giving up five goals in three of his four games against them. The Sharks have two wins in their last seventeen games and have given up four or more goals in twelve of them. It’s not a knock on the Preds that they won’t be able to catch Dallas, Winnipeg, or Colorado being that they lost ten of their first fifteen games to start the season. Nashville is a dangerous team to run into right now and have locked in the first wild card spot albeit a catastrophe that I don’t see happening. I will be playing this game for five units but be aware that I do not see this as a huge blowout spot for the Preds. It sure can be, but I am tempering my expectations and could see this as a late game sweat to get the fourth goal. Hopefully we won’t need to worry that late in the game but don’t freak out if this is a slow game for the first two periods. Nashville should break out late at worst in the third.
One prop I want to add from this game is Jason Zucker’s shot total. Zucker was acquired by Nashville at the deadline and is seeing roughly 14 minutes per game. MGM is offering his shot total of 2.5 at +120 and I will be jumping on it with him increasing his shot total consistently since arriving in Nashville. The Sharks give up the most shots against in the league and Zucker should have another good opportunity to cash this total.
One other player to look into is Anthony Beauvillier. His line is being offered at 1,5 but is a little juiced.
The other games I am deciding between for my five unit play is between the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Devils.
The Blues are on a four game win streak playing at home to the first place Avs. Colorado is on a six game win streak and have won eight of nine. Colorado has scored four or more goals in six of those eight wins. I don’t expect Colorado to lose this game but what is holding me back is that they’ve only scored four goals against the Blues in three of their last eight meetings. I was expecting this line to open at three on their total but the books are not taking any chances setting the total at -225. They want us to pay for 3.5 knowing it’s less likely for them to get the fourth goal in their opinion. My gut is telling me the Avs blow this game open so this is likely where we will be tonight. I will wait for goalie confirmations and then update the plays.
Carolina has dominated the Isles since their first playoff matchup in 2019 winning 18 of 22 matchups. The Isles have won the last two, though. The -160 line is risky but the Isles look absolutely terrible right now. Their six game win streak was a fluke and who the Isles have been these past four games is who this team truly is. I do expect Carolina to dominate again and if Seattle had cashed their team total tonight and swung us those 3u into a win instead of a 4.8u loss then I would be playing this game on top of the other two. Carolina is a lock down defensive team and the Isles struggle to score. I will be playing some early MLB today so if we put some units together from there then we will put them back in play on the Hurricanes.
If you’d read my articles the past few days on the Pens then you know how I feel about their defensive play. Their defense is the ONLY reason I am considering jumping on the Devils team total here. The Devils have scored two or fewer goals in four of the last five but they have the players skilled enough to exploit the Pens defensively here. The Devils aren’t in consideration to overtake the Avs or Carolina, but they would be a third separate five unit play. I would much rather have three top plays here than divvy up two unit plays across the slate. This is a matchup I love and expect the Devils to be able to break back out offensively like they did against the Stars and they have won their last six meetings against the Pens putting up four or more in five of them. The fact that were getting this line at three instead of 3.5 is why I am locking it in now. I am adding two units on their team total of four getting +160 on it. I really do expect the Devils offense to break out and being that I love three so much to cash, having 2u on four at those odds is a nice way to steal back some units from last night. If you really want to go all in tonight then play three more units on the Devils 3.5 to save the juice. I’d be willing to go all in with a 10u play on the Devils at 3.
Official Plays:
- 7:08pm New Jersey Devils Team Total over 3 -160: 5u
- 7:08pm New Jersey Devils Team Total over 4 +160: 2u
- 8:08pm Nashville Predators Team Total over 3.5 -165: 5u
- 8:08pm Jason Zucker (NSH) over 2.5 shots +120: 2u
