PLEASE COMMENT ON THIS SET UP:

$20 Membership Preview:

• Recommended Plays:
  • Vancouver Canucks Team Total over 2.5
  • Toronto/Boston over 5.5
  • Splash correct scores Toronto 2-0 through 3-2
  • New York Knicks ML
  • San Francisco Giants ML

$40 Membership Preview:

NHL:

• Toronto vs. Boston:

• • • I’m playing the over in this game. Playing it light. I expect Boston to score two minimum, so the two scenarios I see are Toronto wins the game and is leading at worst leading at the end of the game 3-2 giving us 1-2 minutes of empty-net time. If Toronto is losing at the end of the game they will pull the same way Tampa did last night but most likely earlier. Boston should get an extra two goals in empty-net situations so only a Toronto shutout hurts us in this scenario and is unlikely in a must-win situation. The best way for Toronto to win is to lock this game down offensively. They do not want a high-scoring shootout. Their best chance of winning and returning home is to shut Boston down offensively with how much Jeremy Swayman is in their head. You will see him get destroyed when Boston advances and plays Florida. I’ll touch on it in the series breakdown but Jeremy Swayman is not this good. Toronto can’t get anything going against him so they need to shut the game down and try and win in a 3-2 or better game. You can play those exact up to 3-2 as a hedge to the game over. Boston probably wins but I don’t see Boston winning 3-0 to hurt the game over play. Boston’s team total of 3 should be good as a push at worst. This puts us in a 3-1 situation where Toronto pulls with 4 minutes left, they give up a goal, then pull again and Boston wins 5-1. You can play this game many ways. I’d play the game over and splash some of the below correct scores.

    • Recommended Plays: Toronto/Boston game over 5.5
      • Correct scores above – light splash- .25u or less

• Islanders vs. Hurricanes:

• We have a lot riding on our series bets in this one. These are our plays:

• • Correct Series Result 4-1 +300: 1u
  • Correct Series Result 4-2 +350: 1u
  • Carolina -1.5 -150: 3u
  • Team with the most hits: Islanders -165: 3u
  • Player to lead the series in hits:
    • Matt Martin +900: 1u
    • Ryan Pulock +1400: 1u
  • Top Goal Scorer- Series: Sebastian Aho +350: 1u

• I am not playing this game pre-game. What we want is a Carolina win to cash a +300, 3 units on the series bets, and the Islanders already have a significant lead on the series hits so that would be another 3 units. We lost one on 4-2 but we have the Ago Top Goal Scorer prop still in play. Jordan Stall somehow picked up 7 total hits last game after having 1 after the 1st. That hurt. They stat corrected or a read a line wrong in game 1- the individual player hits leader is dead. The 8-1 differential in game 1 is too much after last game Stall outhit him 7-4. Lay off pregame if you have the series bets. Personally, I think the Isles bring it back to the Island but I’m biased. Could be a potential 7-10u win if Carolina closes this out this game or next.

• Winnipeg/Colorado:

• • • I’d like to point out in the guide I said:
      • “This series could end in six games for the Avs. I expect a game 1 loss in Winnipeg to allow them to regroup. After winning game 1 I expect Winnipeg to get ahead of themselves and overlook the Avs.”
    • I’m going to play this one live. I want the Avs total at 2.5 instead of 3. I’m going to hope for a slow start to allow the line to drop in the second half of the first. If I can get that I will play it there. If Colorado scores early then I’ll jump on 3.5… The first 10 minutes should tell how this game will go and we should be able to get in on it either way.

• Nashville vs. Vancouver:

• • I don’t care who’s in net for Vancouver. They’ve dominated the Preds all season and even though they struggled to the end of the season they were still winning, but in lower-scoring games. Thatcher Demko is not an elite goaltender. The Vancouver defense and the Vancouver team can help whoever is in net and Nashville  has not scored on them all season. Everyone was on Nashville, we took the Canucks -1.5. I’m playing their team total tomorrow. That comeback win was a statement win for Vancouver. I expect them to follow that up and put up 3+. 
    • Recommended Plays:
      • Vancouver Team Total over 2.5 -160

MLB:

• Right now I’m locked into NHL Playoffs. My attention to MLB is sparing right now. There is one game that stands out before diving in:

• San Francisco/Boston Red Sox:
  • Logan Webb has been severely undervalued this season. 
  • The Giants have won four of his five starts, and he’s been a dog twice and has been under -130. The worry is San Fran’s offense, but if Webb pitches the way he can, it should take 4 runs or less to win this game. I want him for -135 tomorrow. 

Author: Nightghost