Tonight’s NHL schedule is staggered in 15-minute intervals starting at 6pm. The NHL is hoping to keep continuous action without all games being in intermission at the same time. Please remember there is a 6pm, 6:15pm, 6:45pm, and an 11pm game tonight. I will be in chat for the majority of the night to sweat the games we are on. If you are not a member, I am offering an extra free week to anyone who signs up today. 

 

Toronto vs. Washington

Toronto fell behind early on Saturday to Tampa Bay giving up three first-period goals. Matthew Knies scored in 2:22 in the third period to tie the game before John Tavares won it in overtime. Toronto has not looked good recently but managed to hit the four goals I expected from them against Tampa Bay. How they managed to was not pretty, but they should have momentum heading into a matchup with Washington. The Capitals have struggled to score and have lost three of their first four. Alex Ovechkin was able to get on the board with an assist against Montreal and put up five shots after being held to zero in his previous two games. Ovi alone can’t save this team. Joseph Woll is in net for Toronto tonight. Woll came on in relief after the first 10 minutes of the game against Tampa and held them scoreless. Woll’s started one game this season and gave up three against the Blackhawks. Woll played well for the Leafs in his seven regular season games and four playoff games last season. Eleven games are not enough of a sample size for me to think Woll will continue to play well. I like the Leafs to play well and win tonight, but I am not looking to lay -180 on them to win, or rely on their 3.5 team total on the road if Darcy is in net for Washington. 

 

Anaheim vs. Columbus

This is how we did the last time these two played. I don’t like that Patrick Laine is out for the Blue Jackets and don’t love with team offensively right now. I feel we need to play this game regardless of how I see it after hitting this game the way we did last time. Please know I am making this play solely based on these two being bad defensively and the history. 

 

Buffalo vs. Ottawa

I don’t know what to expect in this game. Ottawa is playing much better than Buffalo but this is a division matchup with two teams who have not reached top potential yet. This game can go either way with either team winning. I like to look for consistency in the way teams play each other. I don’t feel either team is good enough to expect consistency in this matchup but Ottawa would be my lean here. I don’t like them at -185 or their team total at 3.5 -155 so I am laying off. I don’t feel +150 for Buffalo is worth the risk either. This game can get sloppy and see a lot of goals but not being able to get 6 or 5.5 has this game a complete no play for me. Can it be the easiest game to make money on? Sure, if you expect 7 goals or an Ottawa win. I just don’t believe it’s worth paying to find out. 

 

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Carolina has played five of six games on the road with all five of those games being Western Conference games. Sebastian Aho’s status is uncertain for tonight as of now and Freddy Andersen has been banged up. I don’t feel either team is in a position where they can be trusted to win, but with Vasilevskiy out, and Andersen potentially not starting tonight, goals should be produced tonight. Carolina should be tired and need a break and their scheduling doesn’t get any better with a back to back Thursday and Friday before having four of the next five days off. Carolina’s next two games are at home against Seattle and San Jose. Carolina just played both teams on the road with a total of twenty goals in those two games. I am letting this game play itself out so I can find a bigger edge on the next two games. If you are looking to play this game, the over 5.5 or 6 are what I would look at. 

 

New Jersey vs. Montreal

-225 is too low for this game and I am going to find a way to be on it. Montreal comes into the second half of a back to back after breathing Buffalo 3-1 last night. Montreal is not a good team and the 3-1-1 record is false advertising. The three wins Montreal has are against Chicago, Washington, and Buffalo. They’ve given up 11 goals in their two losses to Toronto and Minnesota. Tonight should go along those lines, and the Devils are a potential ladder and multi point prop day. The Devils are a well rounded team and Jack Hughes comes into tonight third in the league in points. The Devils offense can score, and that’s what we’re looking for here against Sam Montembeault and the Habs. Unfortunately, there’s not much value on the Devils ladder with 4.5 only being +135. I was odds around +200 if I need to rely on a team to score five goals in a game, and not push on 4. The main target on ladder’s is when you can get the flat number of four at +220 or more. This happens when you have a road favorite around -130 or less, or an underdog. I do believe the Devils have a very convincing edge to win this game so the ML will be the main target in a parlay piece at worst, or I may choose to lay the juice. 

 

Dallas vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh has looked good against two of the worst teams in the league, Calgary and Washington. They lost on opening night in Connor Bedard’s debut after taking a 2-0 lead in the first, and we’re embarrassed by the Red Wings and Blues last week. The next two games won’t get any better for Pittsburgh as they face Dallas and Colorado. Dallas has quietly skated out to a 3-0-1 start, and are one of our plays on the President’s trophy winner. The only loss Dallas has seen this  season is against the undefeated Vegas Golden Knights, and they lost in a shootout. Dallas is another team I put on Championship level due to their goaltending and defensive play. The Stars offense is stout on paper, but they are not playing explosively right now. Saturday’s OT win against the Flyers was their first breakout game putting up five goals. Dallas should be able to carry that momentum into tonight’s game against a Pittsburgh team giving up over three goals per game. Dallas being on the road suppresses the lines for us. MGM is offering Dallas team total at 2.5 for less than -200. This is a position where we have value laddering a Stars team total with 4 being offered at +200. The Stars have a very good offense being lead by Joe Pavelski that can put up five goals on a given night, and the Penguins defensive woes of giving up ten goals in the past two days makes this a good value opportunity for Dallas. Dallas is the better team in tonight’s game, but being on the road in an out of conference matchup raises their chances of getting caught. I don’t believe Pittsburgh has any other edge tonight other than being at home. Even the edge of being at home is limited by Jake Oettinger’s 2.34 GAA on the road in his career. Dallas is a hill I am willing to die on in this matchup, so playing Dallas Team Total at 2.5 is a play I am going to be scaling into, and if 2.5 hits, I am confident that anyone without the alt line and can only play 3 is very safe. 

 

San Jose vs. Florida

Florida has a good matchup tonight but you will pay for it. You’re going to have to lay some units to be involved in the -275 money line and -175 on the 3.5 team total. I expected Florida to have a better regular season that they did last year but their record does not look like that right now. With a 2-3 start, Florida comes in seventh of eighth in the Atlantic division. Florida is scoring three or more goals over their past three games and a matchup against the Sharks is a good boost for them. Anthony Stolarz is not a good goalie and should leave Florida a little vulnerable, but San Jose has scored more than one goal in one of five games this season. Florida’s ML is an option to parlay with New Jersey or an alt line team total parlay. 

 

Colorado vs. New York Islanders

Colorado should be more than a -135 favorite tonight. This line does not make sense, getting 2.5 team total -190, 3 -125, and 4 +220 does not make sense. The Islanders schedule has been very soft with three of their first four games being against Buffalo twice and Arizona. The one tough matchup they faced against New Jersey was more of a tell of who the Islanders are as a contender. The Islanders take penalties in bad spots and gave up four power play goals, cannot score on the power play, and do not protect Sorokin the way they need to to help him win a Vezina. Their offense is anemic outside of Brock Nelson, and a matchup against an undefeated team with Nathan MacKinnon should spell disaster tonight. The anomaly I see is New York winning a 2-1 game. Colorado should stay undefeated after tonight and this is a hill I am willing to die on. Colorado being on the road facing Ilya Sorokin is what suppresses this line, but as mentioned, the rest of the Islanders team isn’t good enough for us to be upset by a loss if they manage to pull it out. 

 

Seattle vs Detroit

Detroit has paid us off very well this season, especially on Sunday. Seattle will be without Andre Burakovsky for 4-6 weeks making the Kraken offense even weaker than it’s already been this season. Seattle’s scored one goal in every game this season outside of their seven goal game against Carolina. I expect Detroit to continue their offensive production tonight. Detroit is averaging five goals a game this season and are leading the league in that category. The Wings are also giving up only 2.5 goals per game. Seattle has played Detroit well in the past averaging four goals per game so I like their potential to contribute to the total tonight. MGM is offering the game total of 5.5 at -165 and I feel it’s a line we need to max out. We are playing with fire expecting Seattle to contribute offensively but if we can get at least two from them, Detroit should carry their weight. This is a game where both teams have the potential to put up three each so I am going to ladder it as well. This is a do or die game tonight so if you are not comfortable putting this much in play, you are okay to just keep the 5.5 total as a two unit play. I am going for it all here with two teams who have provided us excitement and cash in our recent past. 

 

Boston vs. Chicago

Boston is a good team but they are beating up on weak Western Conference teams right now. I don’t trust their offense enough to be playing them. Boston is going to be weighted as a heavily expected favorite in matchups like this based on their record setting year last year. When you’re a favorite like they are, you’re forced to play -200 lines with 3.5 team totals. We have not played them on a consistent level for that reason. While the Bruins are 5-0, they have scored more than three goals only one. Had we been playing them in these positions we would be down significantly. Boston has been -330, -175, -275, -105, and -245 favorites in those five games. There is no value on this team unless you plan on parlaying them which I do not prefer to play. Boston opened up at home against Chicago in a tight game. Boston took a 2-1 lead more than halfway through the game and Pasta hit the empty net with 57 seconds left to give them the three goal win. We were on the over in this game which hurt when Taylor Hall was injured seven minutes into the game. Hall will miss tonight’s game as well. I have no interest on a -225 Boston ML or a 3.5 team total so I will be passing here. 

 

St. louis vs. Winnipeg

I flat out just want no part of this matchup. I have not watched enough of either team to know which identity they are. Jordan Binnington is playing too well for the Blues but it should come crashing down soon. Winnipeg has not played well enough to be -185 favorites although I believe they are the better team. I lean Winnipeg here but have no confidence in either team to put money in play on it.

 

Edmonton vs. Minnesota

Connor McDavis is out for two weeks and the Oilers look like complete shit. We have our feelings towards Minnesota but we are 2-0 on them this season with three winning bets. I like the Wild again here. The line on the game is -115 and their team total of three is only -145. Knowing who is in net for Edmonton will determine how I play this game. I will look to play both the ML and the team total if Jack Campbell starts for Edmonton. 

 

Vancouver vs. Nashville

I don’t believe the books have caught up to how good Vancouver is, and are still overvaluing Nashville based on their wins over Seattle, New York, and San Jose. Vancouver is being offered a team total of 2.5 -160 and we shouldn’t be this lucky. Juuse Saros should be in net for Nashville always making it harder for a total, but it’s a play I want to be on. The only game Vancouver has not put up three goals in a game this season was their shutout loss to Philly. Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, and JT Miller are leading this team offensively and Vancouver has played Nashville well enough over these past three years for me to trust their abilities to score tonight.

 

New York Rangers vs. Calgary Flames

There is only one thing I don’t like about this matchup for the Rangers and it’s their travel to Canada. New York hasn’t played since Saturday though so they should be rested enough. I continue to say that Calgary is being overvalued by the books and they are again here with the Rangers coming in as only a -125 favorite. When you have a matchup like this, that I feel is a severe mismatch, and a matchup the Rangers would win 80% of the time or better if you run this exact matchup, losing a play that is only -125 is a chance you need to take. Both the ML and team total of three are low enough that we can put more units in play to win, being that the risk would stay so close to the payout. Tonight is a 3u max for me, and if we hit Detroit/Seattle early enough, I may push this to a five. I want this matchup for the Rangers every time. The Rangers should dominate this flames team the same way the Red Wings did on Sunday. The Rangers offense is deep enough up front to carry the Rangers to a lopsided win with their top two lines, and if Igor is in net, the Rangers have the much higher edge in goal as well. 

 

Arizona vs. Los Angels

I don’t like betting against Arizona. It’s something you all should know. I like the Kings here though and don’t hate you using them as a parlay piece. Don’t put all your eggs in on them, -190 is expensive. 1-2u in parlays involving the Kings is enough in my opinion if you decide to. 

 

Philadelphia vs. Vegas

Vegas should stay undefeated tonight. They’re another parlay piece but Philly has played Vegas well enough in the past to pull out some wins. Winning on the road will be much harder for the Flyers and Vegas has shown no signs of slowing down. On paper this is one of the more lopsided matchups with a reasonable line, but I love the aforementioned spots like the Rangers and Wings over to lay heavy units with limited juice. Feel free to add Vegas to a few of your own plays but I won’t be.