UFL Week 3
Power Rankings
- Birmingham Stallions
- San Antonio Brahmas
- St. Louis Battlehawks
- DC Defenders
- Michigan Panthers
- Memphis Showboats
- Arlington Renegades
- Houston Roughnecks
DC Defenders @ Arlington Renegades – 1pm Saturday (4/13)
The DC Defenders played a bit better in Week 2 against a weaker Houston Roughnecks defense. This was encouraging as they were able to get some symmetry on the ground which is what this offense and Jordan Ta’amu needs in order to be productive in the air. They need a consistent and pounding ground game and they were able to do that against what is likely the league’s best run defense last week. Arlington grades out terribly against the run via PFF numbers with grades of 61.7 (8th) against the run and 47.9 (7th) in tackling. Their coverage also ranks dead last at a 47.7 grade. I don’t see why DC would have any issues scoring against Arlington in this game both on the ground and in the air. Picking which DC player creates the big play or scores the TD is going to be tough since they spread the ball around. No player had over three receptions in Week 2 and their seasonal stats are a bit skewed since they threw the ball an abnormal 45 times in Week 1.
Arlington is 0-2 after facing two of the best teams in the UFL so far this year. They were edged out by St. Louis late in a game that I thought they played well in. Going into St. Louis with 40,000 fans and putting it down to the wire, even leading as late as the 4th quarter, is no easy feat. Luiz Perez is playing exactly as we expected. He is completing passes at a high rate (70.2%) which leads the UFL through two weeks. He also has a crisp 7.8 YPA, also leading the UFL which has resulted in the 2nd most passing yards (447) so far. Due to Arlington spreading the ball around, only ONE receiver on this team is in the top 10 in receiving yards, which is JP Payton with 99 yards on the year with six snags on 10 targets. I’d expect this passing offense to have success here but I don’t think we have clarity just yet of who will be the main benefactor. I don’t think Perez’s arm alone makes him viable for DFS on a full four game slate.
Prediction:
I think DC wins and this game ends up high scoring. Arlington usually comes out hot and scores early so I don’t think we’ll have an over opportunity in the 1Q but we may have a LIVE chance on DC’s moneyline.
Memphis Showboats @ Birmingham Stallions – 7pm Saturday (4/13)
Coming into this season I had really high hopes for the Memphis Showboats offense and to be honest, they have been a bit disappointing up to this point. They are loaded with what I think is the most talented offensive skill group in the UFL but their inability to form anything resembling a ground game has hindered them vastly. Case Cookus has only thrown for 398 yards through two games and has a putrid completion percentage of 56.3%. That isn’t going to cut it throughout the season. Memphis has a tough, tough matchup this week against what I think is the best defense in the UFL. This bodes well for DFS as I think Memphis will be playing from behind and I actually do think they can get some scores here. I expect Cookus to have a high volume day. The receivers I like most are Daewood Davis who has a crisp 19 (2nd) and Sage Surratt who has 13 targets (7th) through two games. Next Vinny Papale comes in at 11th in the UFL with 12 targets while Jonathan Adams is 16th with 10 targets. Daewood has been used a lot over the middle of the field and edges and has emerged as Cookus’ favorite target. Surratt and Papale are security blankets with a few designed plays but Papale really shines in the 2-minute drill situations which I expect more from this offense given a play from behind Gameflow. Jonathan Adams is a deep threat who physically dominates his opposing corners, I expect a few shots here for him so if you’re looking for that splash play, Adams is your guy.
Birmingham is good. On offense we can continue to see split time from Matt Corral and Adrian Martinez. With them splitting, it is almost impossible to play them in DFS or predict which one will take more snaps and when they’ll take them. Last week Martinez threw the ball 15 times compared to Corral’s 12 with Martinez adding eight rushes for 65 yards and Corral ran it four times for 28 yards. As I’ve mentioned before, the Stallions don’t really have a go to WR or TE that they pepper with volume but more so just design 2-3 plays for their guys and will go back to it if it is working. Marable gets about 65% of the rushing work and did see three receptions for 29 scoreless yards in Week 2 but it is tough to trust either him or Ricky Person to get into the endzone, which is what we need on these four game slates to really put our DFS lineups over the top. Jace Sternberger would be my favorite play from the Stallions if I had to pick one but I want to note he didn’t see a target in Week 2.
I want to note Birmingham’s defense. They have one of the best run defenses in the UFL. They have posted a defensive run grade of 82.2 (2nd) and have BY FAR the best tackling grade of (87.2) via PFF. The 87.2 grade is glaring as there is no other team above 63.3. To go with that, overall Birmingham has a 90.2 grade which is first and the next closest is San Antonio with a 73.7 grade. Their pass rush grade is 90 and coverage grade is 83.3. Both of those grades are best in the UFL through two weeks. This defense is good and why the Stallions win so many games.
Prediction:
The Stallions will win this game and is yet another scenario you can parlay them to get odds down. They are at home and it is extremely unlikely the Showboats can overcome that. Birmingham will score 4+ TDs and I expect Memphis to get a few themselves, pushing this game over its current 41 o/u line.
Houston Roughnecks @ Michigan Panthers – 12pm Sunday (4/14)
The Houston Roughnecks fell to 0-2 last week but in terms of what we look for, they upgraded. Reid Sinnet is set to be the starter for Houston for the foreseeable future, maybe the rest of the season. He took over for an injured Guarantano early in their Week 2 loss to DC and played well. He went 19/30 for 221 yards and a score with a 7.4 YPA. The Roughnecks scored two TDs with him in there and it was the best they looked so far this year. His main target’s were Keke Chism, who caught a 34-yard TD, Kirk Merritt who had a 57-yard reception before getting tackled and eventually fumbling, and Justin Hall, who works out of the slot and is uber athletic, having the ability to take it to the house anytime he touches the ball. I like this offense much more moving forward with Sinnett under center and they should get a boost if Mark Thompson ever returns to the lineup at RB. If he doesn’t, TJ Pledger is an undersized back (5’8”, 196lbs) who is taking almost all of the backfield snaps for them. He saw four targets in Week 2.
Michigan is a well coached team that, as I’ve mentioned, plays tough defense and wants to run the ball. They didn’t play very well last week but they did have to go up against the Juggernaut that is the Birmingham Stallions. Where they played well was in the red zone. They tightened up and only allowed Birmingham to have one TD out of six drives inside the 20 last week. With Michigan’s offense being a bit limited behind EJ Perry, I’m not confident this game contains enough firepower and offensive philosophy to get to the over that is currently at 39. I’m just going to avoid it. In terms of DFS, the Panthers targeted Trey Quinn and Marcus Simms eight times each. I prefer Simms over Quinn for DFS purposes due to his speed but I don’t think this game breeds much offense once it’s all said and done. I don’t think Wes Hills will have much room to run against this Houston run defense this week so I’ll also be off of him.
Prediction:
I think Houston wins a lower scoring, close game. Reid Sinnett is the X factor here and I like him to perform late in the game ove EJ Perry. I’m not overly confident in anything in this game though to be honest.
St. Louis Battlehawks @ San Antonio Brahmas – 3pm Sunday (4/14)
This is the game I am most excited for this weekend. St. Louis is 2-0 after two close wins each of the last two weeks. Having AJ McCarron is an edge that can’t be denied but after watching Chase Garbers last week, I’m not sure how much it will factor here outside of points being scored. Through two weeks, McCarron is predictably at the top of the UFL leaderboards in terms of statistics. He has a 65.2% (3rd) completion rate with a 7 YPA (4th) and 464 passing yards (1st). This has put both Marcell Ateman and Darius Shepherd at the top of leaderboards for receivers. Ateman has the most receiving yards (174) through two weeks and Shepherd has the 2nd most receptions (14) while also having the most targets (20). On the ground, Mataeo Durant has emerged as the Battlehawks top RB. He out touched Wayne Gallman 14 to 2 in Week 2, accumulating 104 rushing yards and a score on the ground. In the air, Durant saw the lone RB target, catching it for five receiving yards. Durant is viable in DFS as is AJ McCarron, Ateman, and Shepherd.
The Brahmas are sitting at 2-0 with an impressive Week 1 win over DC and a very impressive Week 2 comeback win over Memphis. They are well coached and arguably the 2nd best team in the UFL in contention with the St. Louis Battlehawks, who they host in this game. The winner of this game will be viewed as the 2nd best team in most power rankings and given they are the home team, I’m getting a jump on it. Last week the Memphis Showboats were up 16-0 before the Brahmas decided to score 20 4th quarter points to emerge with a 20-19 victory. Garbers ended with 287 yards passing on 29 of 40 passing with three TDs and a pick. He also added 20 yards rushing on the ground on three carries. With that, the Brahmas matched the Battlehawks with WRs atop the receiving stat line for the season through two weeks. Marquez Stevenson has caught 11 (4th) of his 14 targets (4th) for 143 yards (2nd) while Jontre Kirklin has caught 15 (1st) of his 18 targets (3rd) for 114 yards (6th) so far. Behind them is WR/TE hybrid Cody Latimer with nine (7th) receptions on 10 targets (17th) for 98 receiving yards (11th). All three are viable with a game stack with Garbers this week, which is likely the route I go with some mixing and matching. On the ground, we didn’t see much substance in Week 2. This was mainly because the Brahmas were trailing most of this game like I mentioned. McFarland ran the ball five times for six yards with three targets and John Lovett ran the ball three times for 10 yards with three targets. If you were looking for one of them for DFS to pair with a Battlehawks stack, I would go with McFarland.
Prediction:
I can’t say for certainty who wins this game. I think it is a legit coin flip. However, I do think we see some points here and I still think the game total of 43.5 is still too low even though these games have started out a bit lower scoring. I think both offenses push the other higher and we’ll see the QBs play well in this one, putting their playmakers in position to succeed.
Plays
DC/ARL o43 (-110): 2u – Draftkings
BIRM ML / HOU ML Parlay (+196): 3 – Draftkings
STL/SA o42 (-110): 3u – Draftkings
