Another scoreless third period swung our night in the NHL. I thought we were in a tremendous spot when Calgary tied the game with five minutes left in the second period. We are in the final three to five games of the regular season and have a helluva race in the Eastern Conference. The Islanders picked up a huge win over the Rangers while Montreal dragged Philly. Washington picked up a big regulation win over Detroit to take over the final wild-card spot. There are only three games on tonight, all Western Conference games, that will be important to the Pacific Division race. St. Louis is all but out of the wild card hunt but are not mathematically eliminated, so they will be our target tonight. The Blues get the Blackhawks at home to keep their hopes alive. St. Louis is currently five points out, with a total of eight points left on the table, so a win is mandatory. Vancouver has not been the same team and has scored four goals or more in four of their last twenty-one games. Edmonton has an outside chance to catch them for the division lead, but it’s going to take some work and luck, and a matchup against Vegas, who are looking to jump the Kings in the standings themselves, will be no easy task.
Official plays:
- 8:08 pm St. Louis Blues Team Total over 3.5 -115: 2.5u
Thursday Breakdown:
Florida still has an outside shot to win the division and a matchup against Columbus is a great opportunity to pick up another two points. Boston has the night off so a Florida win will put some added pressure on the Bruins next matchup against the Penguins, who themselves are fighting to claim the final wild-card spot. Boston’s remaining games are against Washington and Ottawa which helps Pittsburgh’s chances as well. This is a must-win for Florida if they want to catch Boston, and their twelve wins in their past fourteen matchups bodes well for them. Florida has scored less than four goals in only three of those fourteen matchups. This play will cost us as the 3.5 team total is -185. Catching it live will be difficult because the line should open at 4.5 live and jump up as a plus money line risking Florida scoring early and taking us off the 3.5 line. Florida hasn’t been playing great losing six of their last ten but this is a matchup they should help. Carter Verhaeghe (33G/38A) being out has been a big hit for their offense but they should have him back for the playoffs. Jet Greaves should be in net again and should struggle the more he plays to end the season. I expect Florida to take control of this game and run the score up to a 4-0 / 5-1 type game.
I will be laying off the Flyers/Rangers matchup. The Rangers can win the President’s Trophy but have Boston and Carolina on their heels, with Carolina still looking for a division win. Philly has lost 11 of their last 13 games and have free fallen furthers out of the playoffs. This is a division rivalry game but the Rangers have won ten of the last eleven. I don’t see any value in any lines on the Rangers and see this as a potential trap game for them. The Rangers will need to put up four goals for us to hit a team total and I just don’t feel confident enough in them doing that. If they do, so be it we can jump on their team total late in an empty net situation.
Normally we would be max playing the Red Wings/Penguins over, but this game is too important for both teams. I expect both teams to slow down the pace tomorrow and play cautiously. Pittsburgh is two wins behind Detroit but are tied in points, both one point out of the final wild card spot. These two have scored six or more in eight of their last night, but I’m hesitant this game ends in a 3-2 OT win for either team. I would like to see the Pens pull this one out but they make too many mistakes to be confident enough in them to dominate this game.
Tampa Bay may be the biggest threat to anyone in the playoffs and a matchup at home against Ottawa should produce goals. Tampa has an outside shot to take the third spot in the Atlantic division but one loss will eliminate that. I am more focused on Tampa keeping the momentum they have right now going into the playoffs to think they will slow down. These two teams like to play back and forth high scoring games and I expect that to continue here with Tampa playing with absolutely nothing to lose (other than injury) with a better standing to gain.
We will be on Toronto tomorrow and continue to attack the Devils against them. We hit on this total yesterday and will target Jake Allen again. Jack Hughes is out and the Devils continue to struggle losing five of their last six. Toronto has Tampa Bay on their heels but can also catch Florida for a chance to gain home ice against them in the first round. Toronto has a game in hand on Florida and play them the second to last game of the season.
Official plays:
- 7:07 pm Florida Panthers Team Total over 3.5 -185: 2.5u
- 7:08pm Ottawa/Tampa Bay over 6 -145: 2.5u
- 7:08 pm Toronto Team Total over 3.5 -135: 2u
