UFL Week 6
We are halfway through the UFL season and we should be up a lot more units than we currently are. We have lost quite a few games on the hook so far and I expect that to flip to our favor. All in all, we are up 21.35u with the UFL so far this year. As always, I’ll be playing the bets I post below as well as targeting anything I see live. If you’re playing DFS, I put together a chart every week for my own personal reference and I’ve linked it below. I also have the PFF ratings for all of these UFL teams in there on the 2nd tab.
NOTE: Feel free to add Birmingham or St. Louis MLs to any parlay, even both of them. Both teams should cruise to victories this week but are heavily juiced.
DFS/PFF Ratings
Power Rankings
- Birmingham Stallions
- St. Louis Battlehawks
- San Antonio Brahmas
- Michigan Panthers
- DC Defenders
- Houston Roughnecks
- Memphis Showboats
- Arlington Renegades
Plays
Birmingham Stallions -11.5 (-110): 5u – Draftkings
HOU/STL o47.5 (-110): 2u – Draftkings
ARL/MICH o41.5 (-110): 3u – MGM
San Antonio Brahmas ML (-120): 2u – Fanduel
ADDED:
Darius Victor u27.5 Rushing Yards (-118): 3u – ESPNBet
Hakeem Butler o58.5 Receiving Yards (-118): 3u – ESPNBet
Wes Hills (MICH) o47.5 Rushing Yards (-118): 3u – ESPNBet
John Lovett (SA) o45.5 Rushing Yards (-118): 3u – ESPNBet
Luiz Perez (ARL) o235.5 Passing Yards (-118): 1u – ESPNBet
ADDED 5/4 @ 10:37am
Darius Victor u27.5 Rushing Yards
Victor is a solid back but he has been unable to get anything going at all in this Memphis Showboats offense. Out of the five games this year, he has only topped 27 yards twice and those two games were against San Antonio and St. Louis. Both games were close games into the 4th quarter, with Memphis even leading the Brahmas by 16 going into the 4th quarter of that game. In the other three games this year, Victor has only seen 21 carries for a whopping 19 rushing yards. The last time these two teams played, Victor only saw two carries and his running mate, Titus Swen, only saw six. They combined for eight rushes for only 13 rushing yards. That game was only a six point game at halftime before Birmingham pulled away in the 4th quarter. The Showboats threw the ball 41 times in that game compared to those eight rushes. This week, the Stallions defense will have Antonio Gates at LB and anytime he plays, their already good run defense is taken to another level. As I’ve stated earlier in the week, I expect the Stallions to smash here and the only thing I’m worried about is a broken play by Victor on only of his 8ish rushing attempts.
Note, ESPNBet has player props. I’ll likely be adding some for the 2nd game (3pm) today but I’m taking some time to dive into these props a bit more and not rushing it. Just wanted this one out since the game starts at noon. They’re only two props available for this 12pm game. I don’t have a good feel for the prop, Daewood Davis o/u50.5. I’ve made it known I think Birmingham smashes here so we do have a game script made for Davis to see 6+ targets but his targets are all low depth and in the two full games with Cookus at QB (Weeks 1 and 2), Davis only accumulated 6/58 and 7/43. He only popped last week because he got behind the defense right before hald and burnt them for an 82 yard score, otherwise his performance is more or less PPR based without much security in the yards. With that said, I lean the under but wouldn’t be shocked if he tops 51 yards.
ADDED 5/4 @ 12:50pm
Hakeem Butler o58.5 Receiving Yards
Over the last three games Butler has seen at least nine targets in all three, catching at least six balls in each and accruing at least 61 receiving yards in each. As I mentioned below, Houston has a very good run defensive but their pass defense is very bad. They have the worst cover rate per PFF (53) in the UFL and sport the 2nd worst tackling metric (38.2) and have the 3rd worst pass rush grade (69.2). The Battlehawks rely on Butler early in games, he is always open and has been a YAC monster in this league.
ADDED 5/5 @ 8:44am
Wes Hills o47.5 Rushing Yards
The Panthers want to run the ball and that’s their path to victory. On the season, Hills has had at least 11 carries in three of the four games. The two games he didn’t hit double digits was in Week 4 against San Antonio and Week 2 against Birmingham. In Week 4, he ran the ball four times for 25 yards with a 24 yard long in there. This was a weirder game where EJ Perry and Danny Ettling combined for 27 passing attempts where the RBs only ran the ball 11 times, mainly due to Michigan being down by 10 after the 1st quarter and 13 at half. His opponent today, the Arlington Renegades, have by far the worst run defense in the UFL. They tote a 58.1 rush defense grade per PFF with a 45 tackling grade. They have given up the most rushing yards this year, 617, and the highest YPC (5.1). This is mainly due to being 0-5 and never finding themselves in situations where the opposing offense is forced to pass. I expect points in this game and the betting line of -4 suggests that Michigan will once again be in control of this game, leading to another 11+ carry game for Hills, putting him in a great spot to blow by 48 rushing yards.
Luiz Perez o235.5 Passing Yards
On the season, Perez has been right at or well over 236 passing yards in four out of five games with the exception being Week 4 against the Houston Roughnecks. In every game except that Week 4 game (144 passing yards, 5.1 YPA), he has topped 28 passing attempts and a 7.3 YPA in every game. As I started earlier in the week, I think the Panthers defense is a bit overrated and is coming off of the high of facing the Memphis Showboats, accumulating seven sacks in that game. The way Arlington runs their offense is a quick timing offense that takes periodical shots downfield, rather than just leaving their QB out to dry like Memphis does. Perez is also one of the faster processors in this league and has some of the best accuracy. Michigan’s coverage rating is 4th in the UFL (71.3) and their pass rush is 4th (69.2) as well. However, over the last three games Michigan has allowed passing yard totals of 248 (Troy Williams, MEM), 269 (Quentin Dormady, SA), and 197 (Reid Sinnett, HOU). Michigan has leaked big plays and Arlington is set up to take advantage of the leakage over the top in their secondary.
John Lovett (SA) o45.5 Rushing Yards
San Antonio’s offense is chugging along as we are halfway through the season and one reason is their ability to stick to the ground game, creating balance. The benefactor of this is John Lovett, who has carried the ball at least 12 times each of the last three weeks after only running it for 24 yards on 13 carries in the first two weeks. He is coming off fresh from a 13 rush, 95 yard game capped with two scores. Also, San Antonio now sports the 70.7 offensive run grade, good for 4th in the UFL. DC has given up the 4th most rushing yards (475, 3.7 YPA) so far this year but they sport the worst PPF rush defense grade (57.5) and the worst tackling (30.5) metric. There is a strong chance Lovett has consistent gaps to run through and will break a few tackles, leading to some big gains.
Birmingham Stallions -11.5
I’ve never been more confident in a team covering this many points. The Memphis Showboats are lost while the Birmingham Stallions are finding their groove. It was less than a month ago (Week 3) when the Stallions trounced the Showboats, 33-14, on the back of an Adrian Martinez coming out party. In that game, The Stallions should have had even more points than they did while Martinez threw the ball for 334 yards and two scores, adding another 44 on the ground and another rushing score. In this game, I do expect Matt Corral to take the snaps under center but I don’t think it will matter. Last week, the Showboats’ season all but ended. They fell to 1-4 and their team is sliding. Their Offensive Line isn’t very good and to double down on that, their offensive play calling is predicated on at the very minimum a solid run game so they QB can take deep shots down field via play action. None of this works and the QB is constantly crushed week in and week out. This has resulted in a ridiculous count of their QBs being sacked 25 times through only five games which is by far the most in the UFL. On the flip side, the Birmingham Stallions have the most defensive sacks, sacking opposing QBs 18 times throughout the season. To further drive that home, we have the biggest discrepancy in PFF grades between Birmignham’s pass rush (91.4) grade and the Memphis pass block (46.4) grades. The Stallions have by far the best grade in the UFL and the Showboats have the worst grade on the other side. The Stallions also sport the biggest point differential (+64) while the Showboats have a league low (-46) point differential. I don’t care if Troy Williams or Case Cookus back there, they are going to be hit all game long and likely turn the ball over multiple times. I prefer to face Troy Williams in this instance but I don’t think it matters at the end of the day.
HOU/STL o47.5
I’m banking on the squeaky wheel getting the grease in this game for Houston. I have no doubt that the Battlehawks are going to easily drop 5+ touchdowns on the Roughnecks, it is the Roughnecks inability to do the simplistic task of handing the ball to Mark Thompson that concerns me a little here. The Battlehawks have scored a league high 151 points through half the season, good for 30.2 per game. Over their last four games, they have been in games totaling 51, 55, 49, and 57. The Roughnecks have a very good run defense but equally bad passing defense. This plays to the strengths of the Battlehawks, I expect them to have everything they want, whenever they want it on offense. Two weeks ago, the Roughnecks won their only game of the season and it was cemented by a drive led by Mark Thompson. Last week, he somehow only saw four carries as the Roughnecks looked bad on offense, losing 32-9. After the game, reporters peppered the staff as to why Thompson didnt get more work and they didn’t have an answer. Then after that happened, Mark Thompson went to social media and said
To be honest, he is right. All of the success the Gamblers (now the Roughnecks) had last year was through Mark Thompson and it allowed them to find a rhythm on offense. I’m banking on that happening here and I think the Roughnecks feed Thompson. The Battlehawks are middle of the road against the run so if they commit to it, I think they’ll have enough success to get to a few offensive scores.
ARL/MICH o42
There is a lot of talk about how Michigan’s defense improved last week because they got seven sacks but I think it was a lot more to do with the Memphis offense than it was the Michigan defense. They had a lot of mishaps and to be honest, they were quite disappointing and if it wasn’t for off timing from the Showboats, they would not have won by double digits when they should have won by 30. I think this is a game that Arlington can steal away from Michigan due to that. They won’t be getting home for seven sacks against Luiz Perez and this quick timing passing attack. On the flip side, I think Michigan will be able to run it all over Arlington. Arlington has the 2nd worst run defense per PFF (58.1) and holds a poor tackling grade of 45. Last week, Michigan ran for 160 yards and FIVE scores against Memphis. Their running game is hitting its stride with both Wes Hills and Matt Colburn contributing. Last week, Hills ran it for 82 yards and three scores on 16 attempts with Colburn adding 68 yards and a score on 15 attempts. I’m going to sprinkling the Arlington Moneyline a little unofficially but I think the far more secure bet here is the over.
San Antonio Brahmas ML
The Defenders are cooked. They are showing how overrated and poorly coached they are without Abram Smith this year carrying the load at RB. They have been unable to find an offensive identity and Jordan Ta’amu looks awful. His stats are hard to look at to be honest. He is completing only 52.1% of his passes with a 6.1 YPA, having only seven scores in five games while throwing five picks and being sacked eight times. The Brahmas defense is way too good, coached under Wade Phillips, to let the Defenders score more than 20 points in this game. The reason the Brahmas are only favored by 1 and we have a favorable Moneyline to hit is because the game is in DC. However, the Battlehawks proved last week that the home field advantage in DC isn’t quite as favorable when the Defenders aren’t very good. The Brahmas look good with Quinten Dormandy under center and they will look to continue their playoff run this week in DC.
