Week 1 overreactions:

Week 1 Results:

• Thursday: +16.54u
  • 8:30 pm Cowboys team total over 16.5 -175: 5u
  • 8:30 pm Cee Dee Lamb 2+ TDs +1000: 1u
  • 8:30 pm Cee Dee 70+ receiving -129: 5u
  • 8:30 pm Cee Dee 90+ receiving +162: 3u
  • 8:30 pm Cee Dee 100+ receiving +234: 2u
  • 8:30 pm Cee Dee 120+ receiving +473: 1u
  • 8:30 pm Cee Dee 130+ receiving +650: 1u
• Friday: :-1.5
  • 8 pm Ladd McConkey 60+ receiving -150: 5u
  • 8 pm Ladd McConkey 70+ receiving -105: 3u
  • 8 pm Ladd McConkey 80+ receiving +143: 2u
  • 8 pm Ladd McConkey 90+ receiving +210: 2u
  • 8 pm Ladd McConkey 1000+ receiving _+300: 1u
  • 8 pm Chiefs over 23.5 -150: 3u
• Sunday: -1.9
  • 1 pm James Conner over 14.5 receiving: 3u
  • 1 pm ARI/NO over 41.5 -150: 3u
  • 1 pm TB/ATL over 46.5 -130: 3u
  • 1 pm Drake London over 76.5 -125: 2u
  • 1 pm De’Von Achane over 28.5 receiving -125: 2u
  • 1 pm Terry McLaurin over 56.5 -110: 2u
  • 1 pm Garrett Wilson over 53.5 receiving -110: 5u
  • 1 pm Garrett Wilson over 4.5 reception -135: 3u
  • 1 pm Breece Hall over 45.5 rushing -115: 3u
  • 1 pm Breece Hall over 16.5 receiving -130: 3u
  • 8 pm Lamar Jackson over 45.5 rushing -115: 3u
• Monday:  +8u
  • Vikings team total over 20.5 -130: 3u
  • Monangai anytime td +400: 1u
  • Monangai 15+ rush yards -125: 5u
  • DJ Moore 50+ receiving -160: 3u
  • Bears/Vikings over 42.5 -160: 5u
  • Vikings ML LIVE +400: 1u

Our losses were very minimal this week, losing only 1.5u on Friday and 1.9u on Sunday. Our wins were very nice, hitting for 16.54 on Thursday and another 8u on Monday, netting us a weekly total of 21.14 units. Sunday afternoon should have been a better result, but there is a lot to take away from Week 1 from a betting perspective as well as a fantasy perspective. 

Thursday night will be quick to touch on, as there were some significant variables skewing the results. First, Jalen Carter’s ejection before the first snap of the game may or may not have affected our betting results. On the counter of that, the weather delay may or may not have affected our results as well. I expect a big season out of Cee Dee and will be a target of our plays more often than not. With Micah Parsons gone, I expect the Cowboys to be playing a lot of high-scoring, fast-paced, offensive games, and Lamb should benefit. 

There is a lot to learn in Fantasy, especially for those who are venturing out onto Sleeper and joining more leagues, like I have this year. I am in a total of 14 leagues, 13 dynasty and 1 redraft, ranging from $60 buy-in (1), to $500 buy-in (2)- the rest are $100 (8), $250 (2), and $300 (1). If you are not playing fantasy, you can skip over this section. Javonte Williams is an interesting play here. Williams was going late in dynasty drafts and positioned as a bench player. His draft capital was cheap, and he had a huge week 1, so I expect many owners to have put him on the trade block, expecting to sell high. We will touch on this strategy later, as there are many other players you should see being put on the block (Hollywood Brown, Quentin Williams, Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, etc). Very few of these moves by opposing owners will be worth looking into, but Williams is one of them. If you are in redraft leagues, I’d be more willing to trade for him based on his week 1 performance. Dynasty leagues need to be careful. Inquire about his price, and feel free to leave comments on this article, asking trade advice for fantasy. 

I spent a lot of time putting out a draft guide that wasn’t used or read. Frankly, I stopped doing it. Putting the time into content has been very difficult, seeing and knowing that people are not using it. The more people use the content, the more able I will be. We are in the prime time of the year. Football is back, and the NHL starts in les than a month. I would like to bring Gameflows back to what we were when we opened, but I need all of you to make that happen…

Right now, I am offering everyone a chance for a free month to come back. Here is the link for the monthly subscription:

https://gameflows.com/join-now/?add-to-cart=2092&quantity=1&coupon=Gameflows20&redirect_to=checkout

If you click this link and sign up, you will get the next 4 weeks for one cent. Anyone who chooses to renew after the four weeks are up will receive a 50% discount on the monthly price. 

There are many takes I have put out over the offseason that proved true in week one. The Philadelphia Eagles’ wide receiving corps of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith combined for four catches and 24 yards. I will put out a table of every fantasy share I have. Two names that will not be on any of my 14 teams are A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. You are in for a long, disappointing season if you have either of these two. 

The Friday night game this week doesn’t have as much to take from it, except for one very important thing. Those who said the Chargers will be extremely run-heavy under Greg Roman were wrong. The Charges’ rushing game combined for 18 rushes (15 from Omarion Hampton), while Justin Herbert continued to sling the ball 34 times for 3 touchdowns and 300+ yards. Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Kennen Allen are buys. Ladd was all over the draft guide as a buy from the start, but Keenan Allen still has it and will benefit from all the weapons the Chargers have. I am not buying in on Johnston, as his price tag will be through the roof from delusional fantasy owners putting him on the block, and he’s boom or bust. McConkey will cost the most but will be worth it. Allen will cost the least but will be worth the price tag, and you are buying him knowing he’s a flex option and not a league-winning option. 

I enjoyed the game on Friday from the standpoint of how the Chargers looked and were able to win. We’re getting away from this Chiefs narrative of always coming back, getting the calls, and seeing teams choke. I thoroughly enjoyed seeing Herbert and the Chargers rebound from last year’s playoff loss. I look forward to watching this offense and Ladd.

Sunday is where things went haywire. There is a lot to digest here. Let’s start with the worst of the worst. The Miami Dolphins are a ticking time bomb. Tyreek Hill will not make it more than a few more weeks, Tua will be benched, and all your Waddle shares will be wasted. De’Von Achane is the only one worth holding onto, or even acquiring. I don’t think it will turn into much, but if you didn’t draft Zach Wilson as a bench stash in your dynasty leagues, you can explore what his cost will be. The Dolphins looked like the Browns of years past. Achane had five catches towards our afternoon bet and produced five yards on them (his touchdown). You will not see me making any more plays on this team for a bit. 

The next game I was a bit surprised in was the Arizona/New Orleans game. Don’t get me wrong, I do not expect any production from the Saints in the win column, and expect Tyler Shough (buy him as I mentioned in the draft guide) to take over for Rattler sooner than later, but I did expect a little more out of Arizona scoring-wise, and a few more points out of the Saints in garbage time. The Saints did have a chance to tie it at the end, which should have cashed the total if they went to OT. When I post all my fantasy shares across my teams, one name you will see I have the most shares of is Juwan Johnson. Johnson went 8 for 76 last wee,k and I expect that production to continue for him this season, especially with Taysom Hill out. Johnson is a talented player who will reap the rewards of Spencer Rattler’s inefficiencies and be a game-changer in your lineups if you are weak at tight end or flex. If you can buy him for pennies on the dollar since he was undrafted in some league, you should. Johnson will be a safety blanket for Rattler and even Shough, with the potential to be a top 6-8 TE at the end of the year. I am not buying Marvin Harrison yet. 

Here’s something you all should second-guess yourselves on for next time. THE NEW YORK JETS WILL NOT BE USING A RUNNING BACK COMMITTEE. BREECE HALL IS THE NUMBER ONE GUY AND WILL BE THE NUMBER ONE GUY. Anyone who listened to it and sold on Hall on the fact that Glenn said they’d be rotating was duped. The Jets stars (Wilson and Hall) were buys. Justin Fields may not be a great quarterback, and the Jets may not win many games, but they will be playing from behind, and Fields’ elusiveness running the ball benefits both Hall and Wilson. The Jets looked good offensively this week, and they looked good against a very good Steelers defense. As stated, the Jets may not be a playoff team, but they are going to score and have good, productive fantasy games. 

The Detroit Lions will be a very different team without Ben Johnson, and the Bears will not be what Ben Johnson made the Lions. Both teams should hurt a lot of bettors this year, so we will proceed with caution.

Author: Nightghost