Top game stacks
DET @ CHI
CLE @ MIA
JAX @ KC
Justin Fields (Chicago Bears – $6,500/$8,300)
As I mentioned last week before his eruption, Justin Fields has turned a corner. The Bears are letting him run more and more, he has eclipsed 12 rushing attempts in three of his last four games when he didn’t do that a single time the Bears first five games of the season. Detroit gives up the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFL to the QB position, behind only the Miami Dolphins who Fields just smashed for 178 rushing yards, which was a single game NFL record. On top of that, the Lions are giving up the 4th most passing yards per game to opposing QBs with the highest YPA (7.5) against in the NFL. The table is set for Fields to feast again in Week 10.
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs – $7,900/$8,500)
Patrick Mahomes is now the betting favorite to win the MVP for the remainder of the season. Mahomes has thrown 3+ TDs in three of his last five games. He has put up at least 19.62 points in each of those five games with two of them topping 30 points and four of the five being over 23 points. In Week 10 he will face off against the Jaguars who have the 6th worst pass DVOA in the NFL. This game carries the week’s highest game total of 50.5 so Vegas certainly likes Mahomes’ chances of continuing his MVP bid.
Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence (JAX), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Case Keenum (Buffalo Bills – $5,000/$6,100)
The obvious value play this week will be Case Keenum should Josh Allen sit out. I elaborate a little more on why I would be fond of a Keenum/Diggs stack in my Diggs write up but Keenum has a revenge game narrative at play here on top of being the cheapest option on the board. The Vikings underlying pass defense metrics have them middle of the pack but they have given up the 9th most fantasy points per game to the QB position with 19.1 so far this season. Keenum would go into this game with a full arsenal of healthy weapons and all he would have to do is distribute the ball. Keenum can certainly hit 20+ points and that would be a homerun play if he does.
NOTE: If Josh Allen is active for this game, I would pivot to Jacoby Brissett (Cleveland Browns – $5,400/$7,000) as an alternative. Miami gives up the most points per game to the QB position and Brissett is not only coming off of a bye but his last game played he tossed a gorgeous game of 17/22 for 278 yards parlayed a score with 12 rushing yards and a rushing TD in the Browns dominate win over the Bengals on TNF in Week 8. The Browns are well rested and this game is likely to turn into a shootout, like all Miami games do these days.
Saquon Barkley (New York Giants – $8,600/$9,500)
Barkley is going up against the worst run defense in the NFL without question. They are dead last in adjusted rush DVOA and have given up by far the most PPR points per game (33.3). They are being destroyed for 154 rushing yards per game at a 6.2 YPC clip against enemy backs and have been hit for an added 4.75/33.5 per game in the air. On top of all of that, they have given up the most rushing TDs to opposing backs with 12. Barkley deserves every bit to be the highest priced back on this slate after the Giants are coming off of a bye. I expect 20+ elite touches for one of the best players in the NFL against this awful defense.
Travis Etienne Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,100/$8,000)
I honestly don’t know what the fuck Fanduel and Draftkings are doing with Etienne’s pricing. He is now at the point he should be priced up with the other elite backs in the NFL like Barkley and Henry on this slate. Etienne has had the backfield all to himself over the last three games and he has gone off. He has seen 66 carries for 379 rushing yards and four rushing TDs. He has had at least 109 rushing yards in each of those three games and has had at least 18.9 PPR points. The Kansas City Chiefs are giving up 4.7 YPC to enemy backs which is the 11th most in the NFL and they are giving up almost eight receptions a game to opposing backs. Etienne hasn’t been used much as a receiver these last three weeks but that was what his strength was going into the NFL so there is little doubt he can excel in the receiving game. Also, as I mentioned above, this matchup against the Chiefs has the highest game total on the slate at 50.5 and the only one above 49. I expect Etienne to be in line with both Barkley and Henry ownership wise so I really like the concept of saving a little coin pivoting down to Etienne over Henry or Barkley, Henry specifically.
Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans – $8,300/$9,400)
Surprisingly enough, the Denver Broncos present a ripe matchup this week. The Broncos have one of, if not the best, pass defense in the NFL. That won’t help them here where the Titans are literally lining up and telling the entire world the ball is going to Derrick Henry and no one is stopping it. Henry has been on an absolute tear these recent weeks. Over his last five games, he has seen a total of 129 carries for 678 yards (5.26 YPC) with seven rushing TDs. During that five game span he has had at least 16.8 PPR points, 102 rushing yards, and 17 touches in every game with 25 touches in four of the five. He is the entire offense and the Titans don’t care who knows. The Broncos rushing defense is coming off of a bye but the weeks before, they were smoked by Travis Etienne for 24/156/1 and Breece Hall for 4/72/1 (before his injury). It is going to be tough to fit two of Henry, Barkley, and Etienne in lineups this week but I’ll likely have at least one.
D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions – $6,400/$6,800)
Swift is one of the most talented backs in the NFL and this week he faces one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. I wish it could be that simple. When Swift returned in Week 8, he saw 55% of the backfield snaps over Jamaal Williams who only saw 36.7% of those snaps. The Lions felt they got out of hand with that and the following week, Week 9, they reduced Swift to only 10 (16.1%) snaps, which was behind the 3rd back on the depth chart, Justin Jackson (13), and way behind Jamaal Williams who saw 38 (61.3%). This has left a bitter and bad taste in a lot of mouths across the industry which is going to cause Swift to fly under the radar in a fantastic matchup. So far this week Dan Campbell has said that Swift has put together two good days of practice and he wants to get Swift on the field more in Week 10 as long as they’re no setbacks. Swift has played over 50% of the snaps in three games this season and he has compiled outputs of 26.5, 16.7, and 14.3 in those games. He has had at least three receptions and 27 yards receiving with at least one score in each of those three games. Over the season, the Bears have been leaking fantasy points (26.6 per game) to RBs and are now moving forward without one of the best linebackers in the NFL in Roquan Smith. In Week 8 Tony Pollard ran for 131 yards on 14 carries and scored three times. In Week 9, the Miami Dolphins backs, Raheem Mostert & Jeffrey Wilson, combined to go for 77 yards on 18 carries (4.28 YPC) and added three receptions for 21 yards and a score in the air. All we need is 50% or more snaps from Swift and he is going to pay off big time.
David Montgomery (Chicago Bears – $6,000/$6,700)
No one is going to play Montgomery in DFS this week. His price is about right and they’re plenty of concerns over the “hot hand” approach in Chicago. This originated from the Bears coaching staff with them saying they will play the best players. Yet, every single game this season where Montgomery has been active, he has out-snapped Herbert except Week 3 which was the week he got hurt before missing Week 4. It isn’t really like Montgomery is barely beating out Herbert either. Since returning after missing in Week 4, Montgomery has played snap shares of 72%, 77.8%, 56.3%, 69.6%, and 70.3%. This sure seems like Montgomery is leading this backfield. During that five game stretch, Montgomery has seen at least 15 touches in every single game. He has only two touchdowns over that span but with this matchup, they are inclined to be in position to score more than a neutral matchup. I think you can treat this similar to a Ravens stack where you can certainly play Fields with Montgomery and Kmet/Mooney/St. Brown with Amon-Ra St. Brown coming back from Detroit and even adding in Swift for a full complete game stack at these price tags this week.
Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor (IND), Dameon Pierce (HOU)
Devin Singletary (Draftkings – Buffalo Bills – $5,600/$5,600)
This is a play on gameflow and situation more of matchup. Every time the Bills find themselves in tough games, they resort to their best players and the ones they trust the most. The Bills are falling down from opening up at 6 point favorites and as I write this, they are only 3.5 favorites at home. If Josh Allen is ruled out Saturday night, the line will certainly flip another 6-7 points in favor of the Minnesota Vikings with Case Keenum helming the Bills offense. Enter Devin Singletary who I think would then be in line for 20+ touches with quite a few check downs. In this script, we would expect to see a competitive game and higher chances the Bills are playing from behind which results in more dump offs to their RBs to keep the chains moving. On a site that gives an entire point per receptions and a price tag of only $5,600, Singletary could pay off his price through the air alone. Add in 12-15 carries and some goal line work since Josh Allen won’t be stealing it and that’s how Singeltary pays off his price for .5 PPR.
Stefon Diggs (Minnesota Vikings – $8,300/$9,100)
Write the revenge narrative game in stone. Stefon Diggs runs purely on emotions and this game will be towards the top. Both Case Keenum and Diggs played together in Minnesota and led the 2017 Vikings team to a 13-3 record and a memorable Divisional game win where Diggs caught a 61-yard TD pass from Keenum with time expiring to send them to the NFC Championship game. The following season, Kirk Cousins joined the team and Keenum was left to explore free agency. Now I don’t know how Keenum feels about it, I’m sure he doesn’t feel great the Vikings would have rather thrown guaranteed cash at Kirk Cousins over keeping him, so if he gets the nod, he is going to want to show them what they used to have. However, Diggs lives with a chip on his shoulder. He sees the world saying Justin Jefferson is the best WR in the NFL and that’s who the Vikings drafted with the 1st round pick they acquired when they traded Diggs to Buffalo. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have the 3rd worst DVOA against opposing teams WR1s. Over the last three games, the Vikings have faced three legit WR1s. Last week, Terry McLaurin went 5/56/0 on nine targets. In Week 8, DeAndre Dopkins went off for 12/159/1 on 13 targets and in Week 7, Tyreek Hill went for 12/177/0 on 15 targets with Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompsin throwing him the ball. So all in all, not only does Diggs have a great matchup, he has the revenge game narrative in his name and we don’t have to worry about the QB throwing him the ball.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions – $6,900/$6,900)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been disappointing in the stat line as of late. He has failed to top 14 PPR points, score a TD or hit 100+ receiving yards since Week 2. However, the last two weeks the volume has been there. He has seen 19 targets over those two games, pulling in 11 of them for 124 scoreless yards. He honestly doesn’t have a glaring matchup statistically covering the entire season in this one on the surface but we just watched Tyreek Hill drop 7/143/1 and Jaylen Waddle 5/85/1 on this Bears secondary in the same game. The week before CeeDee Lamb went 5/77/1 proving that teams are having success with their top WR against this Bears defense that has recently lost their two best players. I don’t think ARSB is going to have any issues getting open and the Lions offense should be back to humming in this one.
Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900/$6,800)
The Jaguars are 9.5 underdogs against the Chiefs this week. Off the bat, we know that vegas thinks the Jaguars are going to be forced to throw a lot in this one. After the Jaguars Week 6 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Doug Pederson said they need to get back to Christian Kirk and get him more volume. He said Kirk was their #1 target in free agency and they need to treat him as such. Well, since then Kirk has seen at least seven targets in all three games and 26 overall which is a 26% share. He is averaging 15.23 PPR points per game over this span, pulling in 18 receptions for 212 yards and a score. The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL at guarding the slot, giving up the 6th most points per game to the position with 23.2 per game being scored against them. Kirk has run at least 66% of his snaps in the slot in every game this season except for Week 4. In total, 75% of his snaps come from the slot. With the volume there, Kirk the Jaguars #1 WR and the Chiefs inability to cover the slot, expect big things from Kirk this week.
Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins – $7,600/$8,200)
Pick your poison on which Miami Dolphins WR you want to start this week. I’m going to go with the Robin of this Batman and Robin duo. Waddle has been balling this year, as he is the WR8 in PPR PPG this year for players who have played at least four games. He is now up to six TDs in his nine games, scoring at least 12.8 PPR points in seven of those nine games. This week the Dolphins will square off against the Cleveland Browns in a game that could very easily burst into another shootout. Cleveland has the 7th worst DVOA to the WR2 according to Football Outsiders and they have given up the 9th most fantasy points to perimeter WRs, which is where Waddle has run 72.7% of his routes this season. Over his last three games, he has been out wide 87.9%, 55.6% and 79.3% of the time. Expect Waddle to play the majority of his snaps out wide where the defense is vulnerable. I am perfectly fine paying up for Tyreek Hill but Hill is going to carry a higher salary on both sides and four times the ownership with him.
Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints – $6,800/$7,500)
Olave is the #1 WR for the Saints for the remainder of the season. He has seen at least six targets in seven of their eight games this season with three of those games topping 13 targets. He has multiple 100+ yard games and is now facing a defense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs in the NFL.
Honorable Mention: Courtland Sutton (DEN), Diontae Johnson (PIT)
Equanimeous St. Brown (Draftkings – – $3,500/$)
The St. Brown brothers are going to go at it this weekend in what is projected to be a high scoring affair. Equanimeous has yet to top 8.8 PPR points on the season but honestly, we don’t need much more than that. Over his last three weeks he is pulling a 17% target share for an offense that is opening the ball up more. The Detroit Lions have been one of the worst teams in the NFL covering opposing teams WR2’s. This is primarily due to the emergence of former 1st round pick, Jeff Okudah on the perimeter for the Lions. I expect Okudah to do his best to stop Darnell Mooney in this matchup which will leave new starter Jerry Jacobs to cover St. Brown. Jacobs is an undrafted rookie who is taking over for Amani Oruwariye who was benched for Jacobs last week. Oruwariye is one of the main reasons that the Lions are so inept at covering opposing teams WR2 but I’m going to attack undrafted rookie free agents all day long. It only takes one play against a bad defense for St. Brown to pay off his salary.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Fanduel – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,400)
MVS is a big play waiting to happen. The Jaguars give up the 10th most points to perimeter WRs and MVS is clear cut the burner for the Chiefs. He has been held scoreless so far this season so if you’re one who likes the “due” narrative, MVS is due. He has five games this year where he’s topped 44 yards and has at least four targets in six of his eight games.
Foster Moreau (Las Vegas Raiders – $3,200/$5,200)
The Raiders had to place both starting TE Darren Waller and starting slot WR Hunter Renfrow on the IR this week. Waller has been absent since Week 4 so Moreau has been operating as the starting TE since Week 7. Over the last three games, Moreau has seen almost 19% of the Raiders offensive targets and is second on the team in share behind Davante Adams. He has compiled 11 receptions for 101 scoreless yards good for only 6.43 PPR PPG over that time frame. This is probably why his ownership is going to be suppressed and he won’t be the highest rostered TE on this slate. The Indianapolis Colts have a history of leaking points to the position due to their zone schemes that allow for space over the middle for easy completions. On the season they sit middle of the pack giving up 13.2 PPR points per game to the position. However over the last three weeks they have faced NE, WAS, and TEN, all teams without a viable starting TE. If you look at weeks 1-6, they were giving up the 5th most points to the position with opposing TEs scoring 15.4 PPR points per game against them, a full two more points than their current average. I foresee 5-8 targets for Moreau here with higher percentage targets and the ever dependant on touchdowns to pay off his price tag. If he can fall in the endzone with five receptions, he’ll easily pay off his price tag at low ownership, freeing you up to pay for other positions this week.
Tyler Higbee (LA Rams – $3,600/$6,000)
In Week 3 the Rams faced off against the Cardinals and Higbee pulled in all four of his targets for 61 yards. However, Higbee’s production has cooled off significantly over the last month of the season. Over his last three games he is only seeing 12.1% of the target share and has only seen nine total targets, with six of them coming in Week 8. After his Week 9 dud of only one target, I think most people are just going to pivot elsewhere. However, the Arizona Cardinals are the best matchup of the week for any TE on this slate. Every single game, no matter the opponent, they get worked by the opposing teams TE. Last week the Seahawks TE group saw Noah Fant pull in five of his six targets for 96 yards and Will Dissly have three for 24 himself on four targets. The combination of Irv Smith and Johnny Mundt put up 5/29/1 against the Cardinals in Week 8 and Juwan Johnson dropped a 5/32/2 line on them in Week 7. This is as good of a get right spot as you can draw up for Tyler Higbee.
Honorable Mentions: Travis Kelce (KC), Evan Engram (JAX)
Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears – $3,400/$5,300)
Foster Moreau is cheaper than Kmet so I’d truthfully have him here if I didn’t think Moreau was the best play overall on the slate when equating price, production and ownership but Kmet isn’t far behind him. Kmet has scored three TDs over his last two games which is why no one is going to roster him here. The odds of him scoring another one this week would seem to decline simply because of recency bias. However, he gets to face off against the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions are still giving up the 4th most points against the TE position in the NFL. They have given up the T-4th most TDs in the NFL to the position as well with the 6th most yards. Their underlying metrics also suggest that this inability to cover the TE is going to continue. The Chicago Bears offense is clicking and I certainly see a back and forth offensive matchup in thos one.
Dallas Cowboys ($4,000/$5,000)
The Cowboys are coming off of a bye and are visiting the Packers in Green Bay. The Packers have one of the offenses in the NFL so far this season. They have only scored slightly above 17 points per game as an offense. They are, however, only surrendering 2 sacks per game. However, they were just completely embarrassed in Detroit against the Lions, a game in which Aaron Rodgers threw three red zone interceptions. The walls may be closing in on the QB who is set to turn 39 in a couple of weeks. The Packers will be without their leader in targets on Sunday, Romeo Doubs, and their star player, Aaron Jones, will be hobbled and limited, if he even plays. The Cowboys pass rush is by far the best in the NFL and giving Dan Quinn an extra week to prepare seems like cheating. I’d confidently fire up the Cowboys even at their price tag at next to no ownership.
Indianapolis Colts ($2,500/$4,100)
The Colts are floating in the upper to middle third of the NFL in most pressure statistics such as sacks, pressure rate and hurry percentage. They will face off against the Raiders who have been completely crushed with injuries this year. The Raiders have absorbed sacks and have been scoring in the middle third of the NFL so there isn’t a huge, glaring edge there. The reason I like this play is due to its pricing and its floor mixed with the defense for the Colts coaching staff being completely untouched. I expect Jeff Saturday to implement offensive game plans based around establishing the run aided by playing solid defense on the other side of the ball. With the Colts rush defense being towards the top of the NFL, this is going to force the Raiders to pass a bit more than they want against a tough zone defense which should force mistakes. I think this is going to be one of the lowest scoring games of the weekend so I’m aiming for a high floor here with the potential of a defensive or special teams score from the Colts defense. The price tag for the Colts on Draftkings offers a lot of room for error against this bad offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,800/$3,600)
If you’re looking to save some money on defense this week, I like firing up the Pittsburgh Steelers. The stats throughout the season point that this is a very good matchup for the Saints passing attack, and I do like them here. But not for DFS. The Saints offense just would never offense that ceiling we look for and odds are the Steelers offense does a lot of nothing in what is projected to be a low scoring affair. The Steelers are coming off of a bye, the Saints were just sacked four times by the Baltimore Ravens at home on MNF. The Steelers are getting back All-World edge rushing TJ Watt in this one and the defense is finally getting healthy. Being at home off of a bye is a very tough matchup for anyone, let alone a QB who is as average as Andy Dalton. With how cheap the Steelers DST is, they offer a great floor and a potential ceiling game as well.