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Week 9 DFS (GPP – Main)

This week is going to be a fun one. They’re a lot of plays I like and more games to stack than a normal week. Per usual, hit me up in chat if you have any questions on how to tackle this slate. I also want everyone’s opinions on what type of contests they typically play. Does the content I make help you, and if you’re left desiring more, what would you like added to the article? As I’ve mentioned plenty of times in chat, I am looking to be as transparent as possible and help everyone better themselves individually. I want to remind everyone as well that I play strictly GPPs and I gear more towards Fanduel but I do also play Draftkings.

 

Top game stacks

LAC @ ATL

MIA @ CHI

GB @ DET

 

Honorable Mention: LV  @ JAX

 

QB

Justin Herbert (LA Chargers – $7,200/$7,800)

Herbert is the lucky winner of getting to face the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons have been smoked this season by opposing QBs for 21.8 PPG and have given up by far the most passing yards in the league. Herbert is averaging 44 pass attempts per game this season which is the most in the NFL. He is going to be without both of his stud WRs in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen but that is all the more reason to play him in DFS. Coming off of the bye, the Chargers are going to be extra prepared to take down the Falcons in Atlanta after the Falcons are coming off of an emotional divisional OT win over the Panthers. I like pairing him with any two of his skill position players, including Ekeler, Palmer, Everett, or Carter. You can easily bring it back with Patterson from the Falcons due to the Chargers being the 2nd worst run defense in the NFL and the Falcons being one of the best rush offenses in the NFL.

Justin Fields (Chicago Bears – $5,300/$7,400)

The Bears and Dolphins game has sneaky shootout potential which is why everyone is here, to find the games that can go under the radar and fly past expectations. The Dolphins are giving up the 7th most fantasy points per game to the QB position while giving up the 5th most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Over the last four weeks, Fields is the QB8 in PPG and is averaging 21.21 PPG. 

Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers (GB), Kirk Cousins (MIN – Revenge Game)

Value Play

Trevor Lawerence (Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,200/$6,800)

The Raiders are always a get right spot for any QB who is having a tougher stretch. Lawrence is coming off of a predictably bad performance in London against the Broncos. The Broncos are the best pass defense in the NFL and it showed. This week, the script is flipping completely as Lawrence gets the worst pass defense in the NFL in regards to fantasy production (23.4 PPG). The Raiders are getting beat for the 5th highest mark with 7 yards per attempt from opposing QBs. They are also giving up over two passing TDs per game with only three INTs on the season. I like Lawrence to get right this week and you can pair him with either Kirk or Engram, who both have good matchups as well. 

 

RB

Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers – $7,400/$7,800)

The last two weeks we have seen the volume we expected Jones to have before the season. It seems as if Rodgers has turned his attention from getting his young and below average WR group into shape to just trying to win games with their best players. That means this offense will funnel through Aaron Jones for the rest of the season. The last two weeks Jones has seen touch counts of 17 and 24 with 13 of those being receptions on 15 targets. He has totaled 166 rushing yards and 67 receiving yards with two total TDs. He gets to face divisional foe, the Detroit Lions, this week. A team that is giving up 27.4 PPR PPG to opposing backs and being hit for 5.2 YPC by opposing backs. The Lions statistically have one of the worst defenses in NFL history and I expect Jones to feast in this contest.

Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,300/$7,600)

Travis Etienne is balling this season, and the last four weeks in particular. Over that span, he has averaged 17.825 PPR points per game while running for 427 yards ( 7.36 YPC) and two TDs. He has seen 15 targets over the four games as well, catching nine of them for 76 yards. Part of the reason the Raiders are giving up a ton of points to opposing QB is due to their inability to stop RBs through the air. They are giving up an average of seven receptions for over 60 yards per game to opposing backs. Both marks are 2nd in the NFL to only the Kansas City Chiefs. Alvin Kamara, a player that Etienne was compared to when coming out of college, just finished with the Raiders in Week 8 going 18/62/1 on the ground with 9/96/2 in the air totalling 42.8 PPR points. I’m not sure even the best run defenses can stop Etienne right now, but if the Raiders manage to do that, Etienne is just going to rip them apart in the air.

Cordarrelle Patterson (Atlanta Falcons – $5,800/$7,200) / Tyler Allgeier ($5,400/$6,400)

I’m hoping that come Sunday the market is still a little hesitant on Patterson and we get him at low ownership. Patterson was balling out in his three games before his injury, having multiple 100+ yard games. In Weeks 1-3, before he got hurt in Week 4, He took at least 59% of the RB snaps in those games. By Week 5, Allgeier was inserted where Patterson was before, taking at least 56.7% of the RB snaps during the last month of the season. As I write this, I do not have an answer on where Patterson is going to be active or not. If Patterson is active, I’ll confidently be firing him up. It seems the Falcons have been smart with Patterson so when he comes back, I think he’ll get a full workload. If Patterson misses, I’ll confidently be firing up Allgeier in his place. The Chargers have the 2nd worst rush defense in the NFL behind only the Houston Texans. They give up the highest mark to RBs with 6.1 YPC and opposing RBs average 128 rushing yards per game against them. It is well known at this point that the Falcons are going to run the ball down opposing teams throats regardless of score. Whoever the starting RB is for the Falcons, I’ll be playing them with confidence at low ownership. 

Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins – $6,100/$6,500)

Mostert is coming off of a game in which he disappointed against the Detroit Lions. But, he still saw 65% of the offensive snaps and toted the rock 14 times for 64 scoreless yards. The issue with Mostert is that if he doesn’t score, he will be a failure for fantasy purposes. This week he will get to face off against what is potentially a better matchup than he had last week. The Bears just traded their best defensive player, Inside LB Roquan Smith, to the Baltimore Ravens. Before Smith left, the Bears were still giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing backs and had given up the 9th highest YPC (4.9) in the league. This is only going to get worse for Chicago and they are a defense we should be attacking on the ground every week.

Honorable Mention: Kenneth Walker (SEA), James Conner (ARI – Eno if Conner is inactive)

Value Play

Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders – $5,400/$6,100)

JD McKissic has been ruled out of this matchup so this may propel AG’s ownership higher than I’d like. However, since Brian Robinson has returned, Gibson has seen at least four targets in every game and has caught at least three in each even when JDM has been healthy. Last week this jumped up to seven targets, catching all seven of them for 58 yards and a score. On top of the air work, he has seen ten and seven carries each of the last two games, totalling 78 yards on the ground. He has back to back weeks of over 16.7 PPR points. This week he faces a middle of the road matchup against the Vikings on the ground but the Vikings are giving up the 8th most receptions and receiving yards to enemy backs. The pricing is tightening up on both sites so this value play isn’t as cheap as I’d like it. The only other player I’d consider down in this area is Caleb Huntley at $4,900/$6,000 if Cordarelle Patterson misses. On Fanduel, I’d rather just pay for Mostert or Allgeier this week but I do still like Gibson. 

 

WR

Joshua Palmer (LA Chargers – $5,100/$6,200)

When Keenan Allen was missing time this season, Palmer filled in the Slot role of this offense. Palmer has played four games this season where he ran at least 34% of his snaps out of the slot. In those four games, Palmer failed to top 30 yard receiving and the most receptions he compiled was four. All in all, he averaged 2.75 receptions and 21 yards even in those games. Palmer has also played two other games this season, and in those games he played only 19% and 18% of his snaps in the slot. In those games, Palmer accumulated a whopping 155 yards on 15 receptions. It is clear that Palmer is more comfortable out wide and Herbert has more success connecting with him in those conditions. With both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen out, I expect Palmer to take the majority of his snaps outside (Carter in the slot) and act as the primary WR for the Chargers. This slides in perfectly with his matchup as the Falcons have given up the most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this year (20.5).

Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,200/$7,700)

The only team in the NFL giving up more fantasy points to perimeter WRs is the team I mentioned above, the Atlanta Falcons. The Rams are giving up 19.4 PPR PPG and just got beat by Brandon Aiyuk who pulled in all six of his targets for 81 yards and a score. Evans has been known to be a little boom or bust but over his last two games, he has seen 26 targets, catching 15 of them for 219 scoreless yards and also dropped a 75-yard TD against Carolina. He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 4 and he’s due to hit paydirt.

DJ Moore (Carolina Panthers – $5,200/$7,000)

I’m going to continue to ride DJ Moore this week. Two weeks ago something changed in DJ Moore’s route pattern. Over the first six games of the season, DJ Moore only ran more than 29% of his routes in the slot just once. However, the last two weeks, Moore has run 45.8% and 41.5% of his routes from the slot. The first 6 games of the season, DJ Moore saw 38 targets with a stat line of 20/204/1. Most of this time was spent with Baker Mayfield at QB before Walker took over in Week 6. Over the last two games, DJ Moore saw 21 targets, catching 13 of them for 221 yards and a score in each game. It is no coincidence that the combination of a QB upgrade as well as running almost twice as many routes in the slot has helped Moore’s volume and fantasy output. This week he faces what appears to be a tough matchup on paper, which is likely to suppress Moore’s ownership. Well, the Bengals have given up only 30 PPR PPG to opposing WRs which is the 8th best mark in the NFL. The attractive part to all of this is that they have been ripped for the 7th most points per game (22.2) from the slot, where DJ Moore is lining up now for almost half of his routes. The Bengals are going to be without top perimeter CB, Chidobe Awuzie as well as their slot CB, Mike Hilton. Their other perimeter CB, Eli Apple, has spent the week on the injury report with a hamstring issue. The Bengals pass defense is going to be throwing players into roles that they aren’t used to and I’m willing to bet on DJ Moore’s talent again. 

Romeo Doubs (Green Bay Packers – $5,300/$6,100)

This matchup irks me a little bit because I think most people are going to luck into seeing Doubs having a good matchup. The Lions are actually pretty good at defending perimeter WRs and that’s where Doubs has played most of this season. Every game up until last week against the Buffalo Bills, Doubs played a minimum of 68% of his snaps outside and predictably a previous high of 32% in the slot. However, against the Bills he took 59.4% of his snaps in the slot and only 40.6% outside. The Lions are getting smoked for the 4th most points (23.4 PPG) to slot WRs this year, and 2nd highest on this slate behind only the Falcons. Doubs is seeing a 18.9% target share in his last three games with at at least 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions – $6,600/$7,100)

I’ll keep it short and sweet with ARSB. His price doesn’t reflect his talent and the volume he is going to see. He should be upwards of $8,500 on Fanduel and over $8,000 on Draftkings. You are going to get 10+ targets from ARSB and the talent is there. The Packers present a tough matchup and statistically are a top 3 pass defense. However, if they had a weak point, it would be in the slot. The Packers pass rush will likely have issues with the Lions top tier offensive line and with a game total of 49.5, if you stack this game then ARSB needs to be a staple.

Honorable Mention: Curtis Samuel (WAS), Darnell Mooney (CHI)

Value Play

Michael Bandy (Draftkings – LA Chargers – $3,500)

I want to give some diversity but I would definitely look to fire Marshall down here at $3,900 as well as Bandy this week. I think Bandy is going to play a good chunk of snaps outside for the Chargers this week. You can refer to my write up about Palmer as to why the Falcons are a great matchup for the Chargers receiving core. With Palmer expected to be the main option on the outside at the X, I expect Bandy to be the Z with Carter playing in the slot at the Y. 

Terrace Marshall (Fanduel – Carolina Panthers – $5,400)

I am really liking this new style Carolina Panthers offense that is funneled to Marshall and DJ Moore. As I mentioned with DJ Moore above, the matchup against the Bengals is nicer than it shows on the surface. Marshall saw nine targets last week against the Falcons, pulling in four of them for scoreless 87 yards. As I mentioned in the Waiver article, Marshall was in prime position to score but just couldn’t pull in either of his two targets in the endzone last week. It is becoming more and more obvious the Panthers are moving forward to see what they have in Marshall alongside DJ Moore. I wouldn’t play both of them in the same lineup but if you don’t play Moore, I would certainly look down to Marshall.

 

TE

Gerald Everett (LA Chargers – $4,800/$5,800)

Everett has been seeing elite volume the last two games with 16 targets. He’s pulled down five in each of those two games for a total of 92 scoreless yards. This week the Chargers are going to need him to step up big. Luckily for him, he has a gravy matchup against the Falcons. Even last week against the trio of bad TEs the Panthers trot out, they gave up 52 yards on four receptions. In Week 7 Hayden Hurts dropped 6/48 on eight targets and in Week 6 Kittle hung a 8/83 performance on ten targets. All in all, the Falcons have given up 54 receptions and 552 yards to the position yet only one TD. To give up the 4th most points to a position and only one single TD is honestly rather impressive. Sign me up for Everett this week 

Robert Tonyan (Green Bay Packers – $3,800/$5,000)

Aaron Rodgers may kill a man this year. He has become beyond frustrated with his entire offensive supporting cast so as I mentioned above with Jones and Doubs, I expect him to centralize his target tree. He has given his team enough time to step up to the plate and no one has. Tonyan has seen 22 targets over his last three games and I expect that to continue in an above average matchup for Tonyan. The Lions have given up the 6th most PPR points to opposing TEs and in a game with a 49.5 game total, points will be scored. 

Honorable Mentions: Robert Tonyan (GB), Tyler Higbee (LAR)

Value Play

Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,300/$5,200)

We are blessed with a slate that has some amazing matchups for TEs but no one has a better one than Evan Engram. I’m sure everyone’s tired of me mentioning that the Raiders bleed points to the TE position but it’s just simply true. They are giving up the 2nd most points to the position behind only the Arizona Cardinals. It doesn’t matter if the TE is lined up inline with the offensive line or up in the slot. Engram plays both just as much as the other anyway. Engram himself has been seeing elite volume at the TE position. We hit on him last week to have Engram see his first TD of the season. Over his last four games Engram is seeing 7.25 targets per game and pulling in almost five per game. I like for Engram to start a streak of TDs and score his second in as many weeks in this one.

 

DST

New England Patriots ($4,100/$4,900)

The Patriots enter this week with the highest hurry rate (15%) and the 2nd highest pressure rate (28.9%). To go with that, they are T-5th in the NFL (2nd among teams on this slate) in straight up sacks and are facing a 6th round QB who is making his 2nd career NFL start. In Week 8, Colts QB Sam Ehlinger, looked halfway decent against an above average Commanders defense. This week he may be without Jonathan Taylor, who will be hobbled if he does play, and there will be some game tape on him. The Patriots are at home and should have no problem feasting on the young QB this week. 

 

Indianapolis Colts ($2,700/$4,200)

Playing the Colts this week is more of a knock against Mac Jones rather than playing a top notch defense. The Colts have been near the middle of the pack in every pass rushing statistic but Mac Jones has been dreadful this year. Last week the Jets got home six times and hit Mac Jones a total of eight times. They also had a pick six called back on a roughing the passer penalty where Jones threw the ball right into coverage and no one has any idea who Mac was actually trying to throw to. I expect the Colts to get to Jones in this one and Jones should have 2+ turnovers. It helps that the game total is only 39.5.

Value Play

Carolina Panthers ($2,300/$3,300)

If you want to pay near the minimum, I’d go with the Carolina Panthers. Since their former head coach was relieved of his duties and Steve Wilks has taken over as head coach, the Panthers have given up 21.3 PPG. It is fresh in people’s minds watching them give up 37 to the Atlanta Falcons but when you look further into it, it is the run defense that is letting the Panthers down. They are playing solid ball against the air game and even shut the Bucs down to only 3 points. I want to focus on the Bucs game because I think that game closely mirrors what the Bengals try to do on offense. The Bucs couldn’t protect Brady and couldn’t establish anything on the ground. The Bengals are having the same issue without Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup. They are unable to establish anything on the ground and teams are loading up to stop Higgins and Boyd and it gives them the extra split second to get to Joe Burrow, who has always held on to the ball a bit too long in his career. With the cap savings, I think they can get home to Burrow enough to return 7-8 fantasy points on each site. 

Sanaynay
Author: Sanaynay

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