Gameflows

11/5 Game Notes

11/5 Game Notes

November 5th, 2022
Ghost

Islanders vs Detroit:

  • The home team has won this series 7 of the last 8 matchups with the Islanders winning 7 of the last 10 overall.
  • The Islanders are the far better team here and Semyon Varlomov should be in net. Last I saw, Varly was getting work as the starter with a b2b coming up this week. Lambert, I believe, wants to get him work today so he’s ready for the next start. 
  • Today’s line for the Isles should be in the upper -170 range so being only -130 is a bit worrisome. When lines are too good to be true in matchups like these it usually is. Mis-priced lines in our favor are usually still -150 or higher or a lower goal total. 
  • In terms of gameflow it’s tough to gauge which matchup you will see today. In each scenario the Isles should end up with the win, it’s just a matter of how many goals will be scored in the game.
  • The Isles should be the better paced team, better defensive team, and even though Varlamov is the #2 to Sorokin now, The Isles have arguably the best 1-2 goalie tandem in the league with Varlamov still being a reliable top goalie.
  • I am going to play the Isles TT today from 2.5 through 4, and play them to win. 

Columbus vs Colorado:

  • After yesterday’s game, the lines today are juiced up. 5.5 is over -200, and the line is favored at -130 for 6.5. If I were to play this game I would use 4.5 or 5 as a parlay piece for the over.
  • The pace should follow yesterday’s gameflow with Colorado maintaining the momentum. My personal leans yesterday were on the Avs to win, the game over, and Columbus team total. All three hit. 
  • Today, both starting goalies are getting the day off with Joonas Korpisalo and Pavel Francouz in net. 
  • Keep in mind this game is out of the country and a 2pm start our time.

Blackhawks vs Winnipeg:

  • With Arvid Soderblom starting in net for the Hawks I expect a big game for the Jets. 
  • Winnipeg is an underrated team sitting second in the central right now at 6-3-1. THey are the far better team in this matchup and are 3-1 at home. 
  • Connor Hellebuyck is a top tier goaltender in the league and should be the difference maker in this one. I expect Winnipeg to get out to 3 goals by the late second/early third giving us a great shot to cash a 3.5 team total in the 3rd period.
Nightghost
Author: Nightghost

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