Wild Card Weekend Breakdown – Saturday

Hey what’s up everyone. For the playoffs I’m going to be doing game by game breakdowns for each game. I’ll go through where we can attack each game and give as much context as I can as to why I am betting what I am as well as give information that you can use to generate your own bets for the games. My main focus is on player props but during the postseason I do like to attack teasers a bit more because I think we have a massive edge given the majority of these games will be close one way or another. We have been absolutely smashing alternate lines this last month so I’m going to continue to be aggressive with it this weekend. If you are new and haven’t reaped those benefits, adjust accordingly and scale down to what you are comfortable with across the board. My recommendation would be to play the bets I posted in full but scale down to what fits your budget. We were up 73.43u last weekend alone and were up 112.88u in December if you followed me then. Due to that, I’m not as focused on nitpicking and driving an immediate positive day as much as I am trying to bring home another big alternative line day. I want the ceiling this weekend and I want to hit multiple alts with the baseline plays paying for them. I understand it is a lot upfront but as I mentioned, it comes from being up so much entering this weekend. So, know that before you start entering the plays and go about it as an entity. As always, let me know in chat if you have any questions about any of the games. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: Betting Results (+213.15)

CLE @ HOU

• Joe Flacco o265.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – BetRivers

• Joe Flacco 375+ Passing Yards (+700): 1u – PointsBet

• Joe Flacco 400+ Passing Yards (+1200): 2u – PointsBet

• Amari Cooper o73.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings

• Amari Cooper 125+ Receiving Yards (+500): 1u – PointsBet

• Amari Cooper 140+ Receiving Yards (+900): 2u – PointsBet

• David Njoku o56.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Fanduel

• David Njoku 95+ Receiving Yards (+550): 1u – PointsBet

• David Njoku 110+ Receiving Yards (+1200): 2u – PointsBet

• CJ Stroud o242.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel

• CJ Stroud 300+ Passing Yards (+350): 1u – Draftkings

• CJ Stroud 325+ Passing Yards (+600): 1u – PointsBet

• CJ Stroud 350+ Passing Yards (+1100): 2u – PointsBet

**ADDED (1/11/2024 @ 10:36m)

• Nico Collins o74.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
• Nico Collins 110+ Receiving Yards (+350): 1u – PointsBet
• Nico Collins 125+ Receiving Yards
• Nico Collins 140+ Receiving Yards
• Dalton Schultz o37.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
• Dalton Schultz 80+ Receiving Yards (+600): 1u – PointsBet
• Dalton Schultz 95+ Receiving Yards (+1300): 2u – PointsBet

**ADDED (1/12/2024 @ 1:56pm)

• Amari Cooper 155+ Receiving Yards (+1700): 1u – PointsBet

MIA @ KC

• De’Von Achane TBD

• Raheem Mostert TBD

• Isiah Pacheco o59.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings

• Isiah Pacheco 100+ Rushing Yards (+475): 1u – Draftkings

• Isiah Pacheco 120+ Rushing Yards (+1000): 2u – Draftkings

**ADDED (1/13/2024 @ 1:06pm)**

• De’Von Achane o42.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – BetRivers
• De’Von Achane 95+ Rushing Yards (+900): 1u – PointsBet
• De’Von Achane 110+ Rushing Yards (+1500): 2u – PointsBet
• De’Von Achane 1+ TD (+210): 2u – Fanduel
• Raheem Mostert o46.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – BetRivers
• Raheem Mostert 95+ Rushing Yards (+700): .5u – PointsBet
• Raheem Mostert 110+ Rushing Yards (+1300): 1u – PointsBet
• Raheem Mostert 1+ TD (+165): 2u – Fanduel

**ADDED (1/13/2024 @ 4:12pm)**

• Isiah Pacheco 140+ Rushing Yards (+1200): 2u – PointsBet

Cleveland Browns (11-6) @ Houston Texans (10-7) CLE -2.5, O/U 44

Joe Flacco has played better than ever this year for the Cleveland Browns. He has thrown the ball a whopping 204 times in his five games played for 1,616 yards (7.9 YPA) and 13 scores. He has thrown the ball for at least 254 yards in every game this year and at least 309 in each of his last four games, averaging 340.5 a game over that span. He has also thrown at least two TDs in every game he has played in this year so far. These totals come with both volume and efficiency. Flacco has thrown the ball at least 42 times in four of the five games and the only game he didn’t he only needed 29 pass attempts to throw for 309 yards against the Jets. In that game against the Jets, he did the majority of his damage in the first half and was well on his way to throwing the ball 40+ times again but the game was already over. In this game, Joe gets to face a bottom 10 pass defense with the Houston Texans. The Texans have given up the 8th most passing yards (253) per game and the 3rd highest yards per attempt (7.7) in the NFL this season and that number was boosted up due to a certain Browns QB’s performance back in Week 16. In Week 16 these two teams collided and Joe Flacco threw the ball for 368 yards on 42 pass attempts, 8.8 yards per attempt. With the volume that the Browns are giving Joe Flacco in this offense, his floor should be 45 passing attempts and 300 or more passing yards. 

The two main targets we should be looking at for Joe Flacco to get the ball two is WR Amari Cooper and TE David Njoku. Over Amari Cooper’s last three healthy games with Joe Flacco, he has caught 22 passes for 451 yards and three scores. Over that span of games between Week 14 and Week 16, Amari had a 29% target share with at least eight targets in all three games and reached 14 and 15 targets in the other two. Amari is on the field for nearly every single snap with a 92% route participation and is peppered constantly by Joe Flacco, who is playing loose and letting it rip for his playmakers. It would be negligent to do anything other than bet Amari Cooper to hit his ceiling in this game, inside on a turf against an opponent that is giving up 160 yards per game to opposing WRs. Speaking of opportunistic matchups, David Njoku falls into this category as well. The Texans have given up the 4th most passing yards to opposing TEs this year with them averaging 60 a game against them. Teams are targeting the TE spot against the Texans defense at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL in terms of volume with 8.5 targets a game going to the spot. In the five games with Joe, Njoku is seeing a 23% target share and has seen a 30% share or higher in two of his last three games. In those two games with a 30% share or higher, Njoku topped 104 receiving yards in each of them. Over the last four games in total, Njoku has caught at least six balls in each of them and has topped 91 yards in three of the four. The ironic part is that in the game he didn’t hit 91 yards? Week 16 against this very same Houston Texans defense when he caught six of his nine targets for 44 yards and a score. I’m not looking too far into that specific performance and I think his talent and volume is going to far exceed that isolated spot. The Texans give up way too many seam routes to the TE spot and leave them open way too often for Njoku not to have a game closer to the other three (91+ yards) rather than just 44 receiving yards. The trio of Joe Flacco, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku is going to be a target of mine in this game. To round out the Browns receiving ground, we have guys like Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, and David Bell. I’m not focused on any of those players because as long as Amari Cooper is healthy, he is going to see the majority of the targets from the WR group.

On the ground, the Texans are stout as they hold the 2nd best rush DVOA in the NFL. They have held opposing RBs to the 4th fewest rushing yards (76) this year and still hold the league’s best 3.3 yards per carry. This all comes on the heels of Jonathan Taylor eating them alive in Week 18. In that game, Taylor ran for 188 yards on 30 carries. If you remove that game, the average drops from 76 down to 68 and their yards per carry against drops down from 3.3 to 3.1, both best marks in the NFL from Week 1 through Week 17. The Cleveland Browns don’t have Jonathan Taylor on their roster. What they have is a boom or bust RB in Jerome Ford and a “do it all okay” back in Kareem Hunt. Jerome Ford is leading the way volume wise for the Browns, seeing 48% of the snaps, 43% of the rushing attempts, and carries a 39% route participation over his last five games. Over the same span, Hunt is taking 35% of the snaps, taking 37% of the team’s rushing attempts and holds a 20% route participation. If we are going to attack the Texans with RBs, it is going to have to be in the air and with Jerome Ford. The Texans are giving up the 10th most receiving yards (36) and 12th most receptions (5) per game to opposing RBs. Ford has at least two targets in all five games with Flacco and at least three in four of the five games whereas Hunt has seen just one target in four of the five games and then has a game (ironically the Texans) with four targets. All in all in that game against the Texans in Week 16, the two backs combined for six targets, catching only three balls for three yards. This is a relatively solid spot to attack and Joe Flacco historically does check down to his RBs but I’m going to pass on it here. Flacco is playing loose and slinging the back downfield, taking shots. He is playing like a man with nothing to lose, checking down isn’t on his things he wants to do when he takes the snap. I’m fine missing out here and targeting the trio of Flacco, Amari, and Njoku. 

CJ Stroud has had a phenomenal rookie season. He has thrown for 4,108 passing yards with a 8.2 yards per attempt in only 15 games. If he didn’t miss two games, he would have been neck and neck for most passing yards in the NFL this year. On top of that, he threw 23 TDs with only five interceptions. He missed out in Week 16 when these two teams met a few weeks ago so honestly everything we saw from the Texans offense is irrelevant. It will be a much different story this time around. Stroud plays much better at home than he does on the road. At home this year (8 games), he led the NFL with 2,486 passing yards (8.9 YPA) and 17 TDs with only 4 picks. His 8.9 yards per attempt ranked third in the NFL behind only Brock Purdy (11) and Lamar Jackson (9.3) and his 17 passing TDs also ranks third behind only Dak Prescott (22) and Josh Allen (18). It doesn’t matter how good the Browns defense is on paper, I think Stroud is going to have his way with them. But, the Browns have had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL this year. They have given up the 2nd lowest yards per attempt (4.8) and the fewest first downs (136) via the pass. However, as of late they haven’t played quite to that standard. Removing Week 18 since it was an irrelevant game and pulling games from Week 13 to Week 17, the Browns pass defense was a bit more beatable. Over those five games, they gave up the 10th fewest passing yards at 234 yards per game. Over that span they allowed 279 passing yards to Matthew Stafford, 257 passing Yards to Trevor Lawrence, 211 combined passing yards to Case Keenum and Davis Mills, and 261 passing yards to Trevor Siemian. They, however, held Justin Fields to 166 passing yards on 40 attempts. It is worth noting that Lawrence and Siemian got to 257 and 261 because Lawrence threw the ball 50 times and Siemian threw it 45 times. However, this is expected with how the Browns are playing football right now. Their offense is throwing at one of the highest rates in the NFL as Flacco throws the ball 42+ times a game. On top of that, he is chucking the ball up and taking his shots, and successfully converting them. I went over that a bit more in depth above, but long story short, their offense is scoring points at a quick rate and through the air, prolonging games. This is forcing opposing teams to pass earlier in the ball game and they are having success with sustained drives. CJ Stroud at home has the ability to take advantage of this and if the script goes in his favor and he throws the ball 40+ times? He is going to blow his passing yardage out of the water.

The Houston Texans give us the gift of a narrow passing tree and this makes it easy when projecting who will get the targets. In regards to WRs, I want Nico Collins. I’m not interested in anyone behind him in the WR group but at TE, I am interested in Dalton Schultz, which came in as a surprise to me. I’ll start with Dalton Schultz and move then focus on Nico Collins since my interest in Schultz was surprising. Overall on the season, the Browns ended as one of the toughest matchups in the NFL against the TE. They allowed the fewest receptions (60), fewest receiving yards (541), and 3rd lowest yards per reception (9) on the season. However, as of late, as I mentioned above with Stroud, they have fallen off a bit when guarding above average to elite TEs and when you look beyond that, you realize the reason they are so good against opposing TEs is because they haven’t played anyone. Since Week 14, they have allowed all four TEs to have successful games against them. In Week 14, Evan Engram caught 11 balls for 95 yards and two scores. Week 15 Cole Kmet caught five balls for 23 yards and a score, Week 16 our very own Dalton Schultz caught eight passes for 61 yards and in Week 17, Tyler Conklin caught five passes for 45 yards. Over that four game stretch between Week 14 and Week 17, they allowed the 2nd most receptions (33), 6th most receiving yards (279), and 3rd most receiving TDs (3) to opposing TEs. This is downright horrible. When you peel back the layers and look beyond that, the only other talented TEs that the Browns really stopped this year and stopped were George Kittle and Trey McBride. If we all remember, the 49ers game went completely sideways as PJ Walker led the Browns to a victory with the 49ers sustaining multiple injuries in that game. Trey McBride was shut down because his QB was Clayton Tune so he never stood a chance. Back in Week 4, Mark Andrews gutted them for 80 yards on five catches and two scores.  After Dalton Schultz saw a whopping 28% target share and 33% targets per route run in Week 18, I think we see a repeat of that in this game. Now, as impressive as that 28% target share is, Nico Collins topped it with a 36% target share in Week 18. For those of you who were in chat, you reaped the benefits of that 36% target share. Collins caught the first play of the game for a 75 yard TD reception and continued on to catch nine in total for 195 yards. All in all, Collins saw nine of the available 14 WR targets in this game. Combining Nico and Schultz, they saw 16 of the 26 available targets, good for a 62% share. I’ll be back to riding both of these guys in this game. I think Stroud throws the ball way more than 26 times resulting in extreme volume and production for both Nico and Schultz.

On the ground for the Texans, I think they have some success. Back in Week 16 with Mills and Keenum under center, Singletary and Pierce combined for 12 carries for 50 scoreless yards. This largely means nothing given the fact that CJ Stroud was inactive and the Browns dominated the Texans defense, pushing the Texans to throw late. On the season, The Browns gave up the 8th fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs this season at 78 per game but this was due to lack of volume against them as they had the 11th yards per carry allowed as opposing backs averaged 4.3 yards per carry against them. Over their last few meaningful games this year, the Browns let guys like Breece Hall (13/84/0), Kyren Williams (21/88/1), Javonte Williams (18/65/0), Samaje Perine (7/55/1), and Jaylen Warren (9/129/1) have at least mild success against them. With that said, I do like Singletary in this game. With the season in the wings in Week 18, Devin Singletary took 86% of the Texans backfield snaps and 100% of the rushing attempts while also sporting a 61% route participation. He ran the ball a ridiculous 24 times but failed to get much space to work with as he only gained 2.6 yards per carry, resulting in a measly 63 rushing yards. Last weekend against the Colts was a better matchup than this weekend will be against the Browns. Due to that, it isn’t a screaming play to bet Singletary’s props and is going to be a spot I just view from afar and hope he has a great game so that it sustains drives for the receiving group to continue ripping off chunk plays and push this game from all angles to more points. 

Takeaway

I think this game is a fun one. Joe Flacco is playing carefree football and knows he has nothing to lose. Both of these teams have started to gel and are both well coached. Due to that, I think Flacco has a lot of success throwing the ball just like he did in Week 16 and has since he has become a Cleveland Brown. This offense is PERFECT for his play style and he has been able to take Kevin Stefanski’s offense to the next level. On the back end, we’ve consistently seen CJ Stroud step up in big games like he did last week. I think we see haymakers thrown back and forth in this one and pushes the production up the board. I see the Browns taking home the win in a high scoring, entertaining affair. 

Miami Dolphins (11-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) KC -3.5, O/U 44

The Miami Dolphins have been a disappointing offense of late. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 11 against the Raiders and has only topped 240 once over his last four games. The Dolphins are coming off of back to back disappointing games after getting blown out by the Ravens 56-19 and losing at home to the Buffalo Bills 21-14. Tua’s passing line comes in at 252.5 here and it isn’t one I’ll be attacking. The Chiefs have quietly had a great pass defense this year as they gave up the 4th fewest passing yards at only 176 per game while also allowing the 3rd lowest yards per attempt (4.9). On top of that, they sported the 5th best pass DVOA in the NFL this year. Since Week 8, the only QB to top 253 passing yards was Jordan Love in Week 13 as he threw for 267 yards on 36 attempts. The cherry on top here is that the weather is going to be FUCKING COLD. The temps are expected to float from 0-10 degrees during the game with 15+ MPH sustained winds giving it a windchill of -18. The Dolphins are traveling from Miami to this weather. No thanks.

I could spend days going over Tyreek Hill and this receiving group. I’ll be dead honest, I’m not in the right state of mind when it comes to Tyreek Hill to even recommend playing his player props even if it was a good matchup. He cost all of us so much money this last month that it’s time to look elsewhere. Good for us though, this is a tough one for Tyreek even if it is a revenge game. To compound with what I just mentioned above with the Chiefs pass defense overall, they gave up the 5th fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs through Week 17 at only 125 per game. They have the 5th ranked DVOA against opposing WR1’s and have only allowed 49.4 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1 which is the 2nd best mark in the NFL. With Jaylen Waddle coming back from an ankle injury, I can’t trust him to be at a healthy enough point in this cold to be profitable. I’m avoiding this passing game all together and would be shocked if they show any sort of consistency in this cold.

Even though I don’t have interest in the Miami Dolphins passing game, I do in their running game. There is a full expectation that Raheem Mostert will return in this game which is good for the Dolphins and for our De’Von Achane lines. The last time these two backs were both 100% healthy and in the line was back in Week 13 against the Commanders. In that game, Achane was the alpha back, taking 59% of the offensive snaps and handling 50% of the team’s rushing attempts and showing a 64% route participation. Raheem Mostert lagged behind with 39% of the team’s snaps, a 32% rush share and only a 36% route participation. In that game, Achane handled 17 carries for 73 yards and two scores while Mostert handled 11, gaining 43 and getting to paydirt once. This is the workload I expect for both of these backs in this game. Mike McDaniel knows that this is the core of his team and knows that it is going to be cold. Good thing for them, this is where the Dolphins have a shot to win it if they want to pull off the upset. As good as the Chiefs are against the pass, they are that bad against the run. They sport the 27th ranked rush DVOA, their defensive line ranks 25th in adjusted line yards, and they are dead LAST in power success rate. On top of that, they ranked 29th this year in open field pursuit. Miami’s offensive line flips the script in that area as they rank 4th in adjusted line yards, 1st in RB yards added, and 1st in second level help and 1st in open field blocking. This is a dangerous advantage for the Miami Dolphins and I fully expect BOTH Achane and Mostert to have consistent success and break multiple long runs. 

Patrick Mahomes has played well but the Chiefs inability to surround him with playmakers has finally taken its toll on his statistical output. Mahomes was uncharacteristically human this year, throwing for only 4,183 yards with a league average 7 yards per attempt over his 16 games, throwing for only 27 TDs (2.3%) and having a career high 2.3% INT (14 total) rate which ranked 12th highest in the NFL this year. All of these marks were the worst of Mahomes career on an efficiency basis. The matchup here is a tough one on paper against the Miami Dolphins defense that is playing like one of the better defenses in the NFL against the pass since Jalen Ramsey returned. However, they are severely banged up with injuries. If Xavier Howard can play, it helps the Dolphins defense immensely as they were gutted by Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson the last two weeks for a combined 680 passing yards on only 59 passing attempts between the two QBs with Howard out. With Mahomes’ line sitting at 258.5, I can’t confidently say this game trends in the direction where he has consistent success all game to get to 260 passing yards, a mark he has only hit three times over his last nine games. This passing attack is just too inconsistent to trust.

To build on what I said about Mahomes, the same goes for the receiving group in the sense of it being a tough matchup. Since Week 12, there are really only two members of this Chiefs passing attack that are getting volume. Over the last six meaningful games for the Chiefs, Rashee Rice has a 27% target share, seeing at least a 22% share in all six of those games and topping out at a 32% share. He has at least nine targets in five of those six games and overall has a 79% route participation. No other WR on the team has over a 7% share over that span. He has at least eight receptions in four of the six games and has at least five in all of them. He has gained at least 57 yards in all six, has topped 70 four times and has topped 90 three times. I think the rookie has the toughest matchup of his young career this week as he is likely going to be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. He may get to 68 yards in this one but I’m not confident in it when you combine Ramsey and the cold. Since Rice has emerged, only one other Chief has a target share over 7% and you guessed it, Travis Kelce. Kelce has at least a 15% share in every one of those six games and overall has a 19% share. He has been disappointing over his last three games, failing to top 44 in all three of them. However, the previous three games of this six game sample size I am focusing on, Kelce averaged 85 receiving yards per game, topping 81 in all three games. He has at least four receptions in all six of those games but his receiving lines this week sit at 5.5 receptions and 59.5 receiving yards. Again, I think Kelce has the potential to have a big game, we’ve seen him do it time and time again. But, I can’t confidently put money on it. He has been too inconsistent, even if history tells us he emerges in these big games. Father time is undefeated and a -18 wind chill is no joke. I’d rather focus on the player I’m going to talk about next, Isiah Pacheco. 

It is no secret that I love Isiah Pacheco and how he runs the football. Over Pacheco’s last five games, he has topped 89 yards in three of them and topped 110 yards in two of them. In all five games, he has at least 15 rush attempts in four of the five games. In those games, he has a 71% snap share and has taken 79% of the team’s rush attempts with a 56% route participation. He is a flat out bell cow when he is healthy and Andy Reid trusts him to be out in every situation. With this being such a big game, I expect those numbers to continue and it to reflect something like his Week 17 usage. In Week 17, Pacheco saw 92% of the snaps, 90% of the rushing attempts and had 82% route participation. In situations like this with Pacheco presenting big play ability, opposing matchup isn’t taken as much into consideration for me. However, Miami does have a solid rush defense overall. They have given up the 7th fewest rushing yards on the season at only 77 per game and a res[ectable 3.9 yards per carry to go with it which is 8th best in the NFL. Back in Week 9 when these teams played last, Pacheco ran the ball 16 times for only 66 yards. Since that game (8 games total), they have only allowed only one other RB to top that 66 yard mark and that was Gus Edwards in Week 17 who had 68 rushing yards on only 16 carries. On top of that, they have allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs overall in the NFL during that span at only 63 per game at a 3.6 yards per carry. However, as I mentioned, this defense is decimated with injuries. They will be without both Linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker for the remainder of the postseason. Both of these players are vital for Miami’s defense to stop the run so they will be relying on players coming off the couch to stop Pacheco. I don’t think they’ll be able to do it and even though Miami’s run defense presents a tough matchup on paper, other circumstances indicate that Pacheco has running lanes in this one.

Takeaway

I think the Chiefs take home the win. Traveling from Miami to this extreme cold when you’re not used to it and haven’t played in it before can be crippling over the course of an NFL game. On top of that, the Miami Dolphins are just too banged up to hang in there with the Chiefs for a full 60 minutes. The Chiefs play great at home and are well rested after sitting the majority of their important players in Week 18. I think the Dolphins keep it close but Patrick Mahomes will just be too much at the end of the game for the Dolphins to pull off the upset. 

Unofficial Bets

Game 1

• None – All posted

Game 2

• Rashee Rice 120+ Receiving Yards (+650) – Draftkings

• Travis Kelce 120+ Receiving Yards (+1000) – Draftkings