Wild Card Weekend Breakdown – Sunday

Hey what’s up everyone. For the playoffs I’m going to be doing game by game breakdowns for each game. I’ll go through where we can attack each game and give as much context as I can as to why I am betting what I am as well as give information that you can use to generate your own bets for the games. My main focus is on player props but during the postseason I do like to attack teasers a bit more because I think we have a massive edge given the majority of these games will be close one way or another. We have been absolutely smashing alternate lines this last month so I’m going to continue to be aggressive with it this weekend. If you are new and haven’t reaped those benefits, adjust accordingly and scale down to what you are comfortable with across the board. My recommendation would be to play the bets I posted in full but scale down to what fits your budget. We were up 73.43u last weekend alone and were up 112.88u in December if you followed me then. Due to that, I’m not as focused on nitpicking and driving an immediate positive day as much as I am trying to bring home another big alternative line day. I want the ceiling this weekend and I want to hit multiple alts with the baseline plays paying for them. I understand it is a lot upfront but as I mentioned, it comes from being up so much entering this weekend. So, know that before you start entering the plays and go about it as an entity. As always, let me know in chat if you have any questions about any of the games. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: Betting Results (+TBD)

PIT @ BUF

• Josh Allen o8.5 Rush Attempts (-125): 3u – Draftkings

GB @ DAL

• Jordan Love o242.5 Passing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel

• Dak Prescott o275.5 Passing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel

• CeeDee Lamb o98.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings

LAR @ DET

• Matthew Stafford o270.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – PointsBet

• Cooper Kupp o68.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel

• Cooper Kupp 125+ Receiving Yards (+700): 1u – PointsBet

• Cooper Kupp 140+ Receiving Yards (+1300): 2u – PointsBet

• Puka Nacua o75.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – PointsBet

• Puka Nacua 140+ Receiving Yards (+900): 1u – PointsBet

• Demarcus Robinson o40.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 2u – Draftkings 

• Demarcus Robinson 95+ Receiving yards (+1300): 1u – PointsBet 

• Jared Goff o255.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – PointsBet

• Amon-Ra St. Brown o87.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Fanduel

• Amon-Ra St. Brown 125+ Receiving Yards (+330): 1u – PointsBet

• Amon-Ra St. Brown 140+ Receiving Yards (+550): 1u – PointsBet

• Amon-Ra St. Brown 155+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – PointsBet

• Amon-Ra St. Brown 170+ Receiving Yards (+1500): 2u – PointsBet

• Jameson Williams o34.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 2u – Fanduel

• Jameson Williams 95+ Receiving Yards (+1400): 1u – PointsBet

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6) BUF -12, O/U 35.5

This game is going to be boring. Mason Rudolph is way in over his head after a string of solid games. Since taking over as the Steelers starter in Week 16 (3 games), Rudolph has thrown the ball 71 times, completing 53 of them (74.6%) for 716 yards (10.1 YPA) with 3 TDs and no picks. It has been a relatively impressive stretch given Week 16 he gutted the Bengals, completing multiple long passes to George Pickens, throwing for 290 yards on 27 attempts and then again gutted the Seahawks in Week 17, throwing for 274 yards on 24 attempts. Week 18 is a tough one to gauge due to that game being a weather mess with consistent heavy rain and 15+ sustained winds. He still managed to complete 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards and a score. However, playing in Buffalo with cold, windy temperatures in the low 20s with potential snow and sustained winds over 15 mph and gusts upwards of 30 mph is a different beast. This particularly affects Rudolph because he has found success throwing deep on the edges and that is neutralized with these high winds. On the season, the Bills have given up the 6th fewest passing yards (215) per game. Since Week 11, they have been even better, ranking 2nd in the NFL over that span and only allowing 188 passing yards per game at an elite 6 yards per attempt. They only allowed six passing TDs while holding four of the eight QBs they faced during that span to zero pass TDs. They forced 10 INTs, having at least one pick in six of the seven games. They have allowed only one QB to throw for more than 215 yards against them in that span and that was Patrick Mahomes in Week 14 who needed 43 pass attempts to get to 271 yards. Coupled in the extremely tough matchup with the high winds, this one spells disaster for Mason Rudolph. 

Under Mason Rudolph only two WRs have been a factor and it is George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. Pickens has led the team with a 94% route participation and a 23% target share and that comes with having NO targets in Week 18. He saw a 24% share in Week 16 and a whopping 45% share in Week 17. I think we see him have around a 25% share in this game but there won’t be enough volume for either WR to have much of a chance at success. Diontae Johnson has been running behind Pickens overall, with a 76% route participation and a 22% target share, seeing more consistency than Pickens as Diontae has fallen between a 20% and 25% share in all three games with Rudolph under center. No other receiving option on this team has above an 8% target share (Pat Frieiermuth) and mixed with these winds, we won’t be able to trust any of them.

I’ve mentioned quite a few times how this backfield lays out but lets go over how it has faired with Rudolph under center. In those three games since Week 16, Najee Harris has a 52% snap share, taking 65% of the team’s rush attempts and holding a 22% route participation. Jaylen Warren also has a 52% snap share, taking 26% of the team’s rushing attempts but has a 65% route participation which has led to a whopping 23% target share. All three of these games have been positive game scripts for the Steelers, leading to a heavy Najee Harris workload on the ground so it is very encouraging to see Jaylen Warren still hold a 52% snap share and a 23% target share. Over those games, Najee Harris has averaged 24 rush attempts, 104 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry per game with four rushing TDs. In comparison, Jaylen Warren has only averaged 10 attempts per game for 44 yards and has had one rushing TD. However, over these last three games Jaylen Warren still ranks 7th in the NFL with 5 targets per game, good for 4.7 receptions (14 overall) and 23 receiving yards per game. If we were to keep the time frame (Since Week 11) of when the Bills fired Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey, they have given up the 6th fewest rushing yards (71) per game. Over that span, they only allowed three backs to top 50 rushing yards and only one topped 65. However, the Bills rush defense seems to be more of a byproduct of what their offense has become. Their offense has become extremely run heavy and efficient which has allowed the defense to stay fresher and play more opportunistic personnel and matchups. Teams have only run the ball on them an average of 16 times per game due to this. Don’t get me wrong, they’re playing fine but it’s not like they are a top 10 rush defense, more like middle of the pack maybe closer to bottom third area. This bodes well for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren if the Steelers manage to keep it close in this game. However, I don’t think we get a full 4 quarters of full blown hammering the rock with this offense. Due to that, I’m having a hard time trusting the rushing for Najee Harris and leaning more towards the receiving of Jaylen Warren. I’m going to see how his line falls and how we do Saturday before I make a play here, if I do at all.

Since the Bills fired Ken Dorsey and gave Joe Brady the keys to the offense, Josh Allen has been “eh” and still hasn’t regained his 2021 form. Over those seven games, Allen is averaging 243 passing yards per game, which is the 13th most in the NFL over that span and that comes with the inclusion of a 359 yard performance against the Miami Dolphins, a game in which he left a lot more yards on the field with poor throws. He has more games under (4) his 243 passing yardage average than he does above it (3). Before he threw for 359 yards, he had four straight games under 237 and two games under 170 yards. He has only thrown for 10 TDs over that seven game stretch with Brady and has only thrown for five in his last five games while having seven picks and at least one pick in six of those seven games. The reality of it is, Josh Allen can air it out and throw it if he needs to but he is too mistake prone for the Bills to “want” to do that week in and week out. He is too inconsistent for us to bet on his passing here, especially with the weather the way it is. However, we will have an edge with Allens rushing abilities. Josh Allen always turns it on during bigger games and lets loose rather than trying to conserve his body for big wins. Since Brady took over as the Offensive Coordinator, Josh Allen is 3rd in the NFL for QBs with nine rushing attempts (9) and rushing yards (39.7) per game. Combining the weather and it being a home playoff game in the cold and high winds, I expect Allen to exceed double digit rushing attempts in this game. 

The Bills WR group is more or less a jumbled mess with Stefon Diggs at the top and Gabe Davis injured. Since Week 11, Stefon Diggs has a 29% target share followed by Gabe Davis at 12%, Khalil Shakir at 11%, and rounded out by Trent Sherfield at 5%. With the targets centralized to Diggs, he has seen at least seven targets in six of the seven game sample size but hasn’t seen more than eight in a game since Week 14. Behind Diggs, only on three occasions in this stretch has a WR topped four targets. That was Gabe Davis in Week 12 (11), Gabe Davis in Week 16 (6), and Khalil Shakir in Week 18 (6). Behind Diggs, there just isn’t another WR we can confidently trust with a high enough floor in this game to target. If there was, my dart would be on Khalil Shakir. Also, even with the volume, we can’t trust Stefon Diggs anymore. While he has averaged 8.4 targets, he is only catching 4.9 (57.6%) of them for 45 yards (9.3 YPR) a game. He ranks 114th in the NFL over that span with a 1.4 yards per route run even though he has a fine 10.1 average depth of target and ranks 32nd in the NFL with 30.7% of his team’s air yards and 20th overall with an average of 85 air yards per game. The reality is, he just isn’t connecting with Josh Allen and it is due to Josh Allen’s inaccuracies and inconsistencies, Diggs is open. With all of that said about the WR group, I want to flip to the TE spot because if I end up attacking this defense through the air, it will be with Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid has morphed into the team’s WR2 more or less. He has a 72% route participation since Week 11 with a 19% target share and 21% target per route run with a 9.35 average depth and 18% of the Bills air yards to go with that. His targets (6) rank 7th in the NFL, target share 6th, receptions (4) 8th, yards (40) 12th, target per route run 6th, average depth of target 7th and team’s air yard share ranks 5th per game. These are all respectable numbers and as I’ve mentioned quite a few times, the Steelers get bludgeoned by the slot. Dalton Kincaid has run 60.3% of his routes out of the slot this year. Again, for this game I’m not going to have a ton of volume because it will be a low scoring affair due to the focus on the run for both teams and the weather, but Kincaid is on my radar depending on how we do Saturday.

On the season, James Cook has been the Bills RB1. Since Week 1 Cook has taken 55% of the team’s offensive snaps and seen 52% of the team’s rushing attempts as well as seeing a 47% route participation. I mentioned this because I was kind of shocked that his workload numbers haven’t really changed since Joe Brady took over as Offensive Coordinator, just the pure volume of offensive plays has changed. Since Week 11, Cook has taken 54% of the team’s offensive snaps, seen 49% of the team’s rushing attempts and has a 46% route participation. Cook went from averaging 12 carries and 61 rushing yards per game from Week 1 through Week 10 to averaging 16.4 rushing attempts and 72 rushing yards per game. The matchup in this one isn’t one I would necessarily attack as the Steelers have the 9th best rush DVOA plus they are middle of the pack, giving up the 10th most rushing yards (96) per game this year and have held opposing backs to a 4.2 yards per carry which ranks 14th in the NFL. I think we can expect to see a run heavy game plan based around Josh Allen and James Cook handling the load against the Steelers defense due to game script and weather concerns along with TJ Watt missing this game. Expect a back RB, whether it is Latavius Murray or Leonard Fournette, to get about 25% (7-9) but it won’t be enough to be impactful.

Takeaway

The only chance the Steelers have to win this game is to milk the clock and not make mistakes. Their best bet is to run constantly and keep the Bills offense off the field and capitalize on the inevitable mistakes by Josh Allen, keeping him out of a groove so he can’t go superman and get his team back ahead. I don’t think they can do it and the Bills walk away with an easy win here.

 

Green Bay Packers (9-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5) DAL -7.5, O/U 50.5

Jordan Love is playing out of his mind right now. Since Week 10, Jordan Love is 4th in the NFL with 270 yards per game, 16th with a respectable 7.6 yards per attempt, and is 5th with 2.2 passing TDs per game (20 overall) and has only thrown three picks. He has done this with also boasting the 5th most completed air yards (145) per game and has the 7th best EPA per play against pressure. In that time frame, he has thrown for at least 243 yards in seven of the nine games. The matchup here isn’t as daunting as one would think. The Cowboys defense isn’t playing as well now on the back end as they were to start the season. From Week 1 through Week 11, they gave up the 2nd fewest passing yards (177) per game and were only allowing 6.3 YPA which was 6th best in the NFL. Since Week 12, they have been hit for multiple 300 yard games and have surrendered 270 or more passing yards to four of their seven opponents. Mixed in that sample size is the anomaly game against the Buffalo Bills where Josh Allen threw it only 15 times, Jalen Hurts throwing for 197 yards on 27 pass attempts (7.3 YPA) and Sam Howell in Week 18, who is a terrible QB, throwing for 153 yards on 27 attempts. Overall in that span, with those three games in there, the Cowboys gave up 234 passing yards per game and a strong difference with a 7.5 YPA compared to the previous 6.3 YPA. I’ll go over more with the Cowboys passing attack below, but due to the Packers’ piss poor defense, the Cowboys are going to score a lot of points in this game and it is going to force the Packers to throw. With how well Jordan Love is playing and how bad this Cowboys pass defense can be at times, I give the edge to Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love here. I expect Love to have a great game.

I’m going to look at the Packers offense from Week 10 since that is when Jordan Love has begun to turn the corner and become a very good QB. Jordan Love spreads the ball around, that’s about as best as I can describe, more than any other team I’ve seen. Christian Watson led the team in target share in the four games that he was active. He saw a 21% share from Week 10 through Week 13 before he missed the remainder of the regular season. Over that span he had 81% route participation and commanded 33% of the Packers air yards. Watson saw 6.8 targets per game, catching 4 of them and averaged 52 receiving yards. Behind him is Jayden Reed, who has come on strong lately in Watson’s absence. Since Week 10, Reed has seen 6.8 targets per game, catching 5.1 of them and has averaged 57 receiving yards with an 11.2 yards per reception with five receiving TDs all while adding 100 rushing yards and two rushing TDs to his output. He has a 62% route participation with a 28% target per route run and an overall 19% target share and sees 83% catchable targets due to his lower end 8.5 average depth of target. He has notably seen an average depth of target of 16.67 over the last two games, however I expect it to shorten back towards that 8.5 number with the expectation Christian Watson returns for this matchup. Behind Watson, we have Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. Doubs and Wicks have both worked on the perimeter with Doubs seeing a 78% route participation, 16% target per route run and a 14% target share overall. Wicks has a 55% route participation, 23% target per route run and a 14% share overall. Wicks notably jumped up to 65% route participation with Watson out but still stuck around a 22% target per route run with a 16% target share. Even with all of that disbursement with the Packers WR group, we have the TE duo between Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft stealing targets. Since Week 10, Musgrave has been active for three games (Weeks 10, 11, and 18), having route participations of 72%, 74% and 18% with targets per route run of 13%, 16%, and 17% (14% overall), to go with an overall 10% target share, seeing 12%, 14% and 3%. In Week 18 it was his first game back from the IR so he only had that 18% route participation as they eased him back in. Tucker Kraft, on the other hand, has played well in Musgrave’s absence. He has a 74% route participation, 15% target per route run and a 13% target share. He has had a 9% target share in every game since Week 13. This receiving group is collectively all playing well together and it allows Matt LaFleur to be in his bag, which is wide open due to Jordan Love’s performance. I’m not going to try and pick out who is going to eat in this one and I’ll focus on Jordan Love exceeding expectations. 

Over the season this has been a near 50/50 split from the Packers backfield between AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones. A big contributor to that is Aaron Jones constantly battling injuries throughout the year mixed with his age. We are at a spot now during the playoffs where it is win or go home and I fully expect Aaron Jones to see a huge workload in this game. On the season, Dillon actually has a 51% snap share, 50% rush share and a 38% route participation with a 6% target share. Aaron Jones sports a 49% snap share, 51% of the rush attempts and a 42% route participation with a 12% target share but notably has a 24% target per route run. I think in this game we get a little bit closer to what we saw in Week 18, which was more or less a win or go home game for the Packers. Notably, AJ Dillon missed this game but I don’t think he’ll eat THAT much into Aaron Jones this upcoming Sunday. In Week 18 Aaron Jones saw an 82% snap share, 85% rushing attempt share and a 68% route participation with a 22% target per route run (16% target share). The target numbers will stay steady but he will likely only take ~65% of the snaps and rushing attempts in this game, both still great numbers. The matchup this week is going to be a tough one. The Cowboys have managed to stay solid against the run all season long, holding opposing backs to 85 rushing yards (4 ypc) per game which ranks 13th fewest in the NFL. At home, they get a bit better but this is mainly due to the fact their offense puts up a ton of points consistently at home, leaving opposing offenses forced to air it out. At home, they give up the 6th fewest yards at only 70 (3.5 pc) per game and have only allowed two RBs this year to rush for 70 yards or more and both were road games (James Conner in Arizona and James Cook in Buffalo). In the air, they allowed the fewest receptions (2.5) and 3rd fewest receiving yards (18) per game to opposing backs at home this year. They’re so many other spots to attack in this game that I’m leaving this backfield alone.

I’ll continue to compound and talk about this prolific Cowboys passing offense and it stems with Dak Prescott. We’ve smashed his props but every week it feels like so much is left on the table because opposing offenses either can’t keep up or small mistakes like CeeDee Lamb fumbling out of the end zone or the refs costing the Lions a 2 point conversion. His passing line is set to 275.5 and I expect that to creep up closer to 285 as the weekend progresses. Since Week 6 when the Cowboys offense really took off after the 49ers loss in Week 15, Dak Prescott has averaged the 2nd most passing yards (287), 6th highest yards per attempt (8), most passing TDs (2.6), and 5th most air yards (284) a game. He also has produced the 4th best accuracy (71.6%) between 11-20 yards down the field and the 3rd best accuracy (62.2%) over 21 yards. He also sports the best completion percentage (62.7%) under pressure and plays a defense that blitz 29.3% of the time (10th most in the NFL) and has a 24.3% pressure rate which is 6th in the NFL. Dak Prescott is going to have a field day on this turf and consistently rip off chunk plays.

Previous weeks I have tried to shotgun this WR group but this week I’m not concerned with Jalen Tolbert or Michael Gallup. If they go off, great, it helps our Dak line. But it is impossible to ignore the tree with the Dallas Cowboys and how they are going to attack the Green Bay Packers. Keeping the same time frame since Week 6, CeeDee Lamb has a 93% route participation, 33% target share, 31% target per route run and has 39% of the Cowboys air yards with a 10.4 average depth of target. He has topped 98 receiving yards in eight of those 12 games, averaging a league high 115 receiving yards per game. He is also leading the league with 12.2 targets, 9 receptions and .9 receiving TDs per game. His target share is second to only Tyreek Hill and his yards per route run (3.1) is second to Tyreek Hill (3.6) and Nico Collins (3.4). Since Week 15 the Packers have allowed the 8th most receiving yards to opposing WRs at 171 per game. And honestly, it doesn’t even really matter how good or back the Packers defense is. There is no one in the NFL who can cover CeeDee Lamb right now and everyone knows it. Mike McCarthy is going to call plays to get Lamb the ball and Dak has shown time and time again the ability to do that at a high level. Behind Lamb, my next favorite player in this game is Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is second on the team with a 17% target per route run and a 16% target share. I expect the Cowboys to attack the middle of the field here with both Lamb and Ferguson and for both to have monster games. Behind them is Brandin Cooks who has 83% route participation and a 14% target share and then Michael Gallup at 50% route participation and 8% target share and lastly Jaylen Tolbert at 41% route participation and a 6% target share. Both Gallup and Tolbert have more or less fallen off since Week 13 and can’t be trusted to make a big play. Brandin Cooks is interesting but I’m unlikely to jump on and just focus on both Lamb and Ferguson.

Tony Pollard has been a massive disappointment this year even though he has taken 71% of the snaps mixed with 59% of the rushing attempts, has a 58% route participation and a respectable 11% target share with a 16% target per route run. The issue with Pollard is that he just isn’t getting into the endzone. Per PFF’s expected fantasy points model, Tony Pollard should have scored 10.96 rushing TDs this year yet only get in the endzone six times which is almost a five TD gap. In terms of receiving, he should have scored 2.9472 receiving TDs yet he had none. That is an eight TD gap in this offense in terms of how we view Tony Pollard. With that said, variance is HEAVILY on the side for Tony Pollard to trip and fall into the endzone in his game against a very, very poor Packers defense. The Packers rush defense is bad and has been bad all year but their passing defense has taken over as being worse. Due to that, I think the Cowboys throw the ball a ton as I mentioned above. However, the Packers, on the season, have allowed the 11th most rushing yards (95) per game to opposing backs and that number jumps to the 8th most (106) when they are on the road. On the road, they have allowed 4.6 yards per carry and eight rushing TDs in their nine games played. Tony Pollard’s rushing line is set to 60.5 and between Week 10 and Week 15, they allowed every single RB to top that mark and even allowed Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to both get over 82 in the same game. Over that span 117 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) and five backs to top 80 rushing yards. I bring up that time frame because their last three games have been played against the terrible Panthers offense, the Minnesota Vikings, a game in which we all wish we could forget where the Vikings defense couldn’t get off the field and the Vikings only ran the ball 13 times today total, and the Bears in Week 18. Pollard should have success on the ground here but I’m just concerned about his volume with how the Cowboys play offense.

Takeaway

I think the Cowboys handle the Packers here. The Packers are a nice feel good story but they will just be overmatched here. I do think the Packers keep it relatively close and Jordan Love shows the world just how good he is but Dak Prescott and company will be too experienced and too good to be overthrown. 

LA Rams (10-7) @ Detroit Lions (12-5) DET -3.5, O/U 51.5

Matthew Stafford is returning to Detroit for the first time since he was traded for Jared Goff back in 2021, almost exactly three years to the day (1/31/2021). He has had a stellar season this year as the Rams have quickly flipped back into an NFC competitor, finishing with a 10-7 record behind Stafford’s arm. He has thrown for 3,965 yards (7.6) in 15 games this year and has averaged almost 265 per game while throwing for 24 TDs, including 15 of them in his last six games. Over his last six games, between Week 12 and Week 17 (he rested in Week 18), he led the NFL with those 15 passing TDs and was third in the NFL with 284 passing yards per game behind only Joe Flacco (323) and Jake Browning (285). This week, with a full and completely healthy arsenal of weapons, he gets to tee off against the Detroit Lions god awful pass defense. Over the last three weeks the Lions have given up an astronomical 384 passing yards per game (9.76 YPA), including counts of 411 and 396 to Nick Mullens and 345 to Dak Prescott. The next closest team over the previous three weeks is the New Orleans Saints at 318, a whopping 66 yards lower per game. We would have likely seen Dak Prescott get to at least 375 passing yards if it weren’t for the referee debacle at the end of that game, among other things halting an offensive explosion there. On top of that, they have seen 432 air yards against them per game, 128.3 more than the next closest team (LA Rams at 303.7). Stafford is going to have a field day downfield hitting all three of his WRs consistently for chunk plays. 

This leads me to the Rams WR group. It is really quite simple so I won’t spend a ton of time on it. The Rams trot out three main WRs consistently as Head Coach, Sean McVay, has run an 11-personnel grouping at the highest rate in the NFL since he took over as the Head Coach for the LA Rams. That grouping puts three WRs, one TE, and one RB on the field at a time. Due to that, we see a trio of WRs run nearly every route when the Rams are on offense. Since Week 12, Cooper Kupp leads the way with a 100% route participation, Puka Nacua is next at 89%, and third is Demarcus Robinson at 84%. Kupp literally has a 100% route participation in five of his last six games played, and the 6th game he had a 98% participation. He has a 24% target share across these six games and has 20% of the team’s air yards, averaging eight targets a game and 49 air yards a game. Puka Nacua has a 91% route participation in five of the six games (51% in Week 13), and has topped 95% every game since Week 14. He actually has led the team in target share over this sample size with a 25% share and a generous 32% of the team’s air yards. He is seeing 8.17 targets per game and 82 air yards per game. Coming in third is Demarcus Robinson who has seen at least a 94% route participation each of the last four games and has a very nice 18% target share over these six games with at least a 15% share in four of his last five games played. Robinson is seeing the downfield targets as well, seeing a 32% share of the team’s air yards with Puka. Overall he is seeing 82.33 air yards and six targets a game. No other WR has over a 6% route participation over the last three weeks and no one has higher than a 3% target share. These three between Kupp, Puka, and Robinson make up for 67% of the team’s targets over the last six meaningful games for the Rams. With that, the Lions have given up 847 (73.52%) of those passing yards I mentioned above with Stafford to WRs and 264 (22.92%) to TEs. They have allowed Justin Jefferson to catch 18 balls for 333 yards and two scores, CeeDee Lamb to catch 13 passes for 227 yards with a score, KJ Osborn caught seven passes for 104 yards and a score, Brandin Cooks caught five for 60 yards and a score, and Jordan Addison caught five for 59 yards and a score. It is worth noting as I mentioned that the Vikings played the Lions twice so those numbers are both games combined. Tyler Higbee is the only other pass catcher for the Rams worth noting. He has a 15% target share over the sample size I keep referring to and has a 72% route participation, hitting at least 61% in every game he played over that span. He gained 36 receiving yards or less in four of the five games the played since Week 12 and the only game he topped 36 was in Week 17 against the Giants, going six for 62 on seven targets. My focus is on the Rams pass catchers as I think the Rams take a lot of shots deep and I’ll be alting all three of them to their max with the expectation that two of the three will hit their main line with the potential for all three to get there. I’m going VERY heavy with this pass catching group paired with Stafford. 

I’ll start off by saying Kyren Williams is a beast and I’ll never bet against him. His volume is elite and up there with the best of the best. Keeping the same sample size mentioned above since Week 12 when the whole band has been healthy, Kyren has a 82% snap share, 60% route participation, a 12% target share and has taken 75% of the team’s rushing attempts. Over these six games, he leads the NFL with 331 snaps, 131 rushing attempts, 688 rushing yards, 425 yards after contact, 11 missed tackles, and has the 3rd most rushing TDs over that span. He has at least 20 rushing attempts in each of his last five games and 87 rushing yards in each of them. He has run for a TD in each of those five games and has been virtually unstoppable. With that said, I can’t play his rushing line in this game with confidence. This season, the Lions have been absolutely stout against the run which is directly correlated to why their pass defense is so horrid. They have allowed the fewest rushing Yards (60) per game and have held them to the 3rd lowest yards per carry (3.5) while boasting the league’s best rush DVOA. They rank top 6 in almost all adjusted metrics including adjusted line yards, power success (3rd or 4th down with less than 2 yards), second level (5-10 yards) and open field (10+ yards). They have not allowed a single RB to run for 70 or more yards on them at all this year. One of the key pieces to that is their ability to put up points on offense, so we could look at it from the angle that the Rams will stay in this game and will never go away from the run unless the Lions are up double digits with less than 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter which is unlikely, but I’m not risking it. Like I said, I won’t bet against Kyren and his volume, they stand alone in terms of matchup but the Lions have earned the right to be called the best run defense in the NFL. I won’t be surprised if Kyren tops 90 rushing yards in this one off of volume alone and can break a 20+ yard run any time he touches the ball but I won’t be playing it.

This is a major revenge game for Jared Goff. If everyone remembers, back in 2021 the Rams ditched Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford and left Goff to the rebuilding Lions while the Rams went on to win the Super Bowl, led by Stafford. Goff had hard feelings about that departure and held on to it for quite a bit. Goff has since turned into a trustworthy passer and has played very well for the Detroit Lions. This season he almost led the NFL in passing yards, throwing for 4,575 (7.6 YPA) in 17 games with 30 TDs and 12 interceptions. He threw for at least 257 yards in each of his last four games, averaging 281.5 per contest, maxing out at 320 passing yards against the Vikings in Week 18 and averaging 8 yards per attempt across those games. On top of Goff playing well, he has a great matchup this week. Between Week 11 and Week 17, only one team in the NFL (CIN) has given up more passing yards (275) per game than the LA Rams. Every single QB over that span has thrown for at least 226 yards (Brissett and Howell combined for 226 in Week 15) and they have allowed three of the seven QBs to throw for 315+ yards. Not only does Jared Goff have a phenomenal matchup and the biggest chip you could imagine on his shoulders, this is the first home playoff game for the Detroit Lions since 1993. Jared Goff has played in a Super Bowl, these bright lights won’t be too bright for him in this one. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown may be my overall favorite play of the weekend. He has a stellar matchup against the LA Rams and it is directly correlated to what I mentioned above with Jared Goff. The Rams have given up the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing WRs in those weeks I listed above (11-17). The only team to give up more? You guessed it. The Detroit Lions. The Rams gave up 192 receiving yards to opposing WRs over that span (DET is 198) and let a WR top 94 receiving yards in five of the seven games. Also, they allowed at least one WR to get to 83 or more receiving yards in all seven games. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best WRs in the NFL and he has shown it over the last month of the season. Since Week 15, he has caught at least six balls and surpassed 90 or more receiving yards in all four games. He has topped 105 or more in three of the four games and has averaged eight receptions for 113 yards and a score over that span. His receptions rank 2nd in the NFL, his yards third in the NFL and he is tied for the most TDs. Outside of ARSB, there is only one receiving option I am interested in for the Detroit Lions. With Sam LaPorta out, we can’t trust any of the Lions TEs outside of a 1st TD of the game dart throw or something like that. The option I am interested in is Jameson Williams. We were so close to cashing all of his alt plays against the Cowboys in Week 17 but Williams got hurt in the 3rd quarter with 69 receiving yards. Over the three games prior to getting hurt, Jameson saw at 16% target share to go with a 60% route participation, and that includes only playing 47% of the snaps in Week 17. He saw a beautiful 13.19 average depth of target  and commanded 29% of the Lion’s air yards over those three games. I think his line should be well above 40 yards as the Rams are susceptible to perimeter WRs and the big play, which the Lions most certainly will be going after. His skill set brings forth fantastic value with alternate lines in this game. 

The Lions shouldn’t be doubted on the ground against anyone but the ground is not where opposing offenses have had success so far against the Rams. They have not allowed an opposing RB to top 55 rushing yards in a single game since Week 9. Between Weeks 10 and 17 (Rams rested in Week 18), the Rams gave up the 2nd fewest rushing yards in the NFL (57) per game and sported the 7th best yards per carry. However tough the matchup, the Lions really don’t care. They have the 6th highest rush rate (42%) in the NFL and both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have seen 10 or more rush attempts in each of the last five games. David Montgomery has started to take a backseat to Jahmyr Gibbs, who took 57% of the team’s offensive snaps over that five game stretch compared to Montgomery’s 42%. The gap with rush attempts is near even as Gibbs has seen 47% of the rush attempts compared to 48% for Montgomery. The separation comes with Gibbs seeing a 50% route participation compared to Montgomery’s 29% and Gibbs seeing a 10% target share compared to Montgomery’s 5%. Both of these rushing lines are right on mark with how I view them with Gibbs having a slight edge at 48.5 rushing yards compared to Montgomery’s 54.5 line. Neither back has topped 20 yards receiving since Week 11 against the Chicago Bears when they both were able to accomplish the feat. 

Takeaway

I started out this week thinking the Rams were definitely going to pull off the upset but the more I dug into the Ram’s defense, the more concerned I am for the Rams and the more I think the Lions can take home the win. One thing I do know is that this game has potential to be a classic. Both offenses are crisp and extremely well coached. This is by far the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend.

Unofficial Bets

Game 1

• Najee Harris o57.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Draftkings

• James Cook o65.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Fanduel

Game 2

• None

Game 3

• None