Gameflows

10/20 Breakdowns

10/20 Breakdowns

October 20th, 2022
Ghost

Anaheim vs Boston:

  • There’s two ways you need to look at a slate when betting it for me. One, if you want to try and guess who is going to win each and every night, or betting the long term of each matchup to come out ahead. If the Ducks and Bruins met 10 times this season, on paper the Bruins should win 8 of them, but the Ducks are a franchise Boston has struggled with as of late. Over their past 10 meetings in 6 years, the Ducks have won 7 of them.
  • The Ducks are a much different team this year and one of the worst to start. After a come from behind victory over Seattle (which isn’t necessarily something to brag about, but it was a great win), they’ve given up 17 goals in 3 games to the Islanders, Rangers, and Devils. 
  • While the Bruins lost to Ottawa two nights ago, they still managed to put up 5 goals and lost on defensive and goaltending let downs. The Senators came into that game with a revved up crowd and Daniel Alfredsson dropping the puck. The Bruins should be more sound tonight against the Ducks especially at home.
  • While the Bruins for me are a top tier team this season, the history against Anaheim is worrisome. Coming in at -200 is a bit of an eye raiser as well because I do believe this line should be higher. The line is set for everyone to use Boston in parlay pieces and keep bettors off the Ducks ML. This game is one of the trap games on the slate for me so while I will be playing the Bruins, it will be selective and in a parlay with a team I feel is in a similar situation. 

 

Arizona vs Montreal:

  • The line is priced for you to be able to take Montreal, who are the better team, but this is a matchup Arizona knows they can win. What I like about Arizona is while they may finish last in the league and be a bottom team each year, they don’t roll over. They will grind you and make you earn it and that’s a concern for a team like Montreal. 
  • Montreal should win this game and are the much better team so I will be taking them on the ML. How much is going to depend on who starts in net tonight. If Jake Allen gets the start I’m going to reduce it to a 1u play but if Sam Montembeault is in net it will be for 2u.
  • Feel free to build a multi leg parlay including Boston with Montreal and some other heavy favorites to get some +300 odds (Boston, Montreal, Rangers, Flames). 

 

Dallas vs Toronto:

  • With Dallas starting 3-0 and Toronto looking well under expectations, this is a game I am going to be laying off of. 

 

Kings vs Pittsburgh:

  • I still have PTSD from the Penguins last game and will be laying off. 
  • With it being an out of conference game where these two teams don’t see each other often, it’s more likely to see variance here. The Kings have won the last three matchups 
  • Pitt comes in at -190, a 6.5 game total, a 3.5 team total, and I just don’t feel there is any significant edge worth playing in this game. 

Nashville vs Columbus:

  • This is an out of conference game that I feel has a significant edge to it. I wish the total came in lower than 6.5 but I do believe this is Nashville’s game.
  • While Nashville is on a three game losing streak, I do believe they are the far superior team not only in this matchup but in this league. They have some internal maturing to do to be able to get over certain aspects of their game. Nashville had their last matchup with the Kings all but won going on the power play with three minutes left with a one goal lead. Matt Duchene then took a penalty to go 4 on 4 leading to the Kings tying the game. They then lost 1-0 in the shootout. 
  • Tonight has to be a get right game for Nashville if they want to move forward. A loss tonight would raise some serious concern for the Preds to a team without top goal scorer Patrick Laine and Elvis Merzlikins struggling to find his footing. 
  • Columbus is a -8 in goal differential being bottom in the league in scoring and bottom in the league in goals against. This is a game where Nashville needs to come out fast, out pace Columbus, out shoot Columbus, and get ahead early and often. 
  • I will be jumping on Nashville’s ML straight while using their team total of 2.5 in multiple parlays. 

 

San Jose vs New York

  • As long as San Jose keeps losing, we will continue to bet against them. 
  • The Rangers team total of 3.5 is in play tonight with Kaapo Kahkonen in net for the Sharks. I will be using their 2.5 in a play with Nashville and Boston as well. 
  • The Rangers have been dominating. While they lost to Winnipeg, being able to read that they were due to lose that game makes knowing their ceiling more clear. With Halak starting against Winnipeg, in Canada, on a back to back allows you to classify that loss as just fate. They can’t win every game and in my opinion, that loss makes them a stronger team heading into their upcoming schedule of San Jose and Columbus. These two games are games the Rangers should win dominantly before heading into a back to back with Colorado and the Islanders where they will drop one of those games. They will then have two days off heading into another favorable few games against Dallas, Arizona, and Philly. The Rangers should be a very profitable team for us this coming week. 

 

Going to reset and refresh here and come back later to analyze the next set of games. These are my most favorable ones heading into goalie confirmations. No official plays yet until I know the lineups match what I am expecting. 

Nightghost
Author: Nightghost

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