Divisional Weekend Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone. We had another successful and positive weekend. One reason is due to the alt plays we continue to hit. I’ve been listening to chat and starting this week I am going to try out two different play sheets. I will post my normal play sheet that I’ve been doing. I’ve been having a ton of success with these alternate lines and I’m going to continue to ride the wave. However, I also understand that not everyone in chat can get those lines. So what I am going to do is create a second unofficial sheet for those who can’t play alternate lines or are on tighter books. I’m doing my best to be as transparent and profitable for everyone in chat so if anyone has any requests or suggestions, let me know and I’ll see what I can do. Let’s continue this wave and ride to championship weekend with another positive week!

 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

Disclosure: How I bet

Betting Log: Betting Results (+222.24)

Unofficial Betting Log: Betting Results (Unofficial) (TBD)

HOU @ BAL

Official (with alts)

• CJ Stroud o244.5 Passing Yards (-120): 3u – Draftkings

• Nico Collins o78.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings

• Nico Collins 110+ Receiving Yards (+310): 1u – PointsBet

• Nico Collins 125+ Receiving Yards (+550): 2u – PointsBet

• Nico Collins 140+ Receiving Yards (+1050): 2u – PointsBet

• Lamar Jackson o225.5 Passing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel

• Lamar Jackson 300+ Passing Yards (+550): 1u – PointsBet

• Lamar Jackson 325+ Passing Yards (+1100): 2u – PointsBet

ADDED (1/19/2024 @ 10:10am)

• Odell Beckham Jr. o31.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 3u – Caesars

Unofficial (without alts)

• CJ Stroud o244.5 Passing Yards (-120): 3u – Draftkings

• Nico Collins o78.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings

• Lamar Jackson o225.5 Passing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel

GB @ SF

Official (with alts)

• Jordan Love o243.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – BetRivers

• Brock Purdy o259.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – BetRivers

• Christian McCaffrey o88.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 5u – MGM

• Christian McCaffrey 2+ TD (+155): 1u – Fanduel

• Christian McCaffrey 3+ TD (+650): 2u – Fanduel

ADDED (1/17/2024 @ 10:03pm)

• Jordan Love 300+ Passing Yards (+310): 2u – Fanduel
• Jordan Love 325+ Passing Yards (+550): 1u – PointsBet
• Jordan Love 350+ Passing Yards (+1100): 2u – PointsBet
• George Kittle 110+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 1u – PointsBet

Unofficial (without alts)

• Jordan Love o243.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – BetRivers

• Brock Purdy o259.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – BetRivers

• Christian McCaffrey o88.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 5u – MGM

• Christian McCaffrey 2+ TD (+155): 2u – Fanduel

• Christian McCaffrey 3+ TD (+650): 2u – Fanduel

Houston Texans (10-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-4) BAL -9.5, O/U 45.5

CJ Stroud just got done waxing the Cleveland Browns to the tune of 274 yards (13 YPA) on only 21 attempts with three TDs and no turnovers in his first career playoff game. That is a far cry from his Week 1 performance against this Baltimore Ravens defense when he threw the ball 44 times, completing 28 for 242 yards (5.5 YPA) and no scores. He has now thrown for at least 260 yards in seven of his last nine games and has thrown for 274 or more in six of those nine games. Over that span, Stroud has the 2nd most yards per game (288) in the NFL and the 3rd best yards per attempt (8.8) and 14 TDs to boot. This week, however, Stroud is going to face his toughest task since emerging as a star in this league. The Ravens defense boasts the top DVOA in the NFL overall and the top pass DVOA in the NFL this year. They are allowing the 8th fewest passing yards (218) per game, the lowest yards per attempt (5.9) on the season and have allowed the 2nd fewest passing TDs on the season. They lead the NFL in takeaways (31), TD rate (2.8%), sacks (60) and have the most expected points added by their passing defense (69.63). They also have the 2nd most passes defended (92) and 5th in QB hits (117). Point blank, this Ravens pass defense is next level. Stroud is going to have to bring his A-game if he wants to take home a win in Baltimore this week.

As I mentioned last week, the Texans receiving group is rather easy to identify which makes it easier for us to predict who will get the ball. Nico Collins continued his dominance by seeing a 35% target share, catching six balls for 96 yards and a score, doing most of his damage early as the Texans cruised to a victory. I could honestly wrap it up there because Nico is matchup proof and is probably going to give us a generous line in this one because it is such a hard matchup. But, last week against the Browns, his receiving colleagues were also able to get some work behind him in front of Dalton Schultz. While Nico by far led the team with seven targets, John Metchie was next with three targets (14%) followed byRobert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson who each saw two targets (10%) apiece. Dalton Schultz ended up falling into this category as well, seeing only two targets himself. Since Week 12, the Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable against opposing WRs. They have allowed the 14th most receiving yards (156) to them per game, a far jump up from the 25th most (130) against them from Week 1 through 11. Over this span (six games), the Ravens have allowed three opposing WRs to top 100 receiving yards and at least one opposing WR hit 70 receiving yards against them in each game with six overall having 76 or more. I think there is a strong chance Nico Collins brings his best stuff to this game and surprises a lot of people by getting open consistently. I really like the combination of Stroud and Nico to gain chunk play after chunk play. 

Devin Singletary is where I think the Texans make some headway in this game if they want to win. As I brought up back in Week 18, the Ravens rush defense has been susceptible to opposing ground games the back half of the season. Since Week 10, they allowed five of eight backs to exceed 100 yards rushing yards in a single game. They allowed the 12th most rushing yards (101) per game and the 4th highest yards per carry (4.8) in the NFL over that span. The Texans have leaned heavily on Singletary in these last two must win games, giving him 80% of the team’s offensive snaps, 80% of the rushing attempts, a 62% route participation and a 12% target per route run. The volume will be there for Singletary as long as the Texans can sustain drives, which I suspect they will be able to do. I’ll once again be watching Singletary from afar and hoping for success so Stroud and Nico can continue to eat and we watch them climb the ladder. 

Your 2023 NFL MVP makes his first playoff appearance this week after dominating the last month of the season. Since Week 14, Lamar JAckson has the 4th most passing yards (265) per game with the 4th highest yards per attempt (8.6) and the most passing TDs (2.8) per game. On top of all that, he also does what he always does and led all QBs with 61.8 rushing yards per game over that span with a gaudy 6.9 yards per carry. To make things worse for the Texans, Lamar Jackson has been his best when he plays at home. He is second in the NFL with a 9.3 yards per attempt at home this year and 3rd in the NFL behind only Will Levis (10.7) and Baker Mayfield (9) with a 8.9 average air yards per attempt. Entering last week, the Texans gave up the 8th most passing yards (253) per game this season and the 3rd most yards per attempt (7.7) to opposing QBs. They are a neutral matchup, on paper, against opposing QBs who run but those stats are usually irrelevant since most QBs don’t run and only a few QBs in NFL history run like Lamar. But, they are somewhat susceptible to the run more so than just what Lamar brings to the table. On the season they have allowed guys who don’t typically run like Joe Flacco (3-13), Will Levis (4-25-1) Russell Wilson (10-44-1), and Joe Burrow (5-20) have above average success against them. Running QBs such as Kyler Murray (7-51-1), Anthony Richardson (3-35-2) and even Lamar Jackson (6-38-0) have had success against this defense rushing it. Look for Lamar Jackson to have a field day in this one. 

Looking at the Ravens WR group I am doing so in two parts. I want to look at the group and who is getting the volume over the last month that I mentioned where Lamar Jackson has really turned it on. Over the last month, Zay Flowers has still led the way with 87% route participation, a 21% target share and a 20% target per route run. Next up is Rashod Bateman, who is surprisingly right on the heels of Zay Flowers. Bateman has 60% route participation, a 19% target share and a healthy 22% target per route run. After those two, we have a mixture between Odell Beckham Jr who has 59% route participation, a 13% target share and a 18% target per route run and Nelson Agholor who has 58% route participation, 10% target share and 13% target per route run. Over this sample, Odell has led this group with a 20.56 average depth of target and 25% of the team’s air yards. Next up with great usage is yet again, Rashod Bateman who has a 16.26 average depth of target and 28% of the team’s air yards. Next is Zay Flowers with a healthy 9.74 average depth of target and 21% of the team’s air yards and lastly Nelson Agholor who has a shockingly low 3.58 average depth of target and only 4% of the team’s air yards. With all of this mentioned with the Ravens four WRs, we can’t forget about Isaiah Likely who is just as involved as them. Likely has 86% route participation, a 18% target share and a 15% target per route run to go with his 8 yard average depth of target and his 16% share of air yards. I think we need to attack what Vegas gives us here. Depending on how the lines shake out, I could be on any of the top four (minus Agholor) or none of them. Regardless, Lamar is going to have a great game spreading the ball around and at least one of them is going to have a great game with him. 

We can’t trust this Baltimore Ravens backfield. Since Keaton Mitchell got hurt in Week 15, the Ravens went back to a two headed backfield, using Justice Hill mainly in passing down situations and Gus Edwards in rushing situations. In Week 16, Justice Hill saw 61% of the team’s offensive snaps, had a 42% rush share and 53% route participation with a 9% target share and 14% target per route run. This is a great workload but we can’t bank on it. Just the following game in Week 17, Justice Hill only took 33% of the snaps and had a 10% rush share but he did maintain 54% route participation and a 23% target share with a 36% target per route run. Over those two games, when Justice wasn’t playing, it was Gus. Gus saw 44% of the snaps in Week 16 and 56% in Week 17. His rushing attempts were 38% and 55%, had 30% and 23% route participation and only saw one target over the two games. This workload would be fine if it was just these two moving forward. However, during their bye week, the Ravens signed RB Dalvin Cook. There is the expectation that Cook will immediately implement himself into the rotation and see meaningful snaps. This turns right back into a three headed rotation with unpredictability. I expect Gus Edwards to maintain the goal line work and Justice Hill to focus on the air game but Dalvin Cook is going to eat into both early down usage and 3rd down usage from Justice Hill. We have no sample size to go off of so I am just going to wait and see how it plays out. Also, I want to mention the Houston Texans have one of the better rush defenses in the NFL, allowing the 5th fewest rushing yards (76) to opposing RBs per game. I think the Ravens still have success running it but not enough to target anyone from this backfield. 

Takeaway

I think the Ravens win this game but it will be a lot closer and a lot more points than the general public thinks. The Texans offense is going to impress yet again, putting up points but at the end of the day, it just won’t be enough and Lamar Jackson will take over the game. 

Green Bay Packers (9-8) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-5) SF -10, O/U 49.5

Jordan Love has arrived. We all saw this past weekend how good Love actually is and should be viewed as one of the better QBs in the NFL. The Packers have hit again. This past weekend Love threw for 272 yards (12.95 YPA) and three scores on only 21 drop backs. He threw an average depth of target of 11.2 and absorbed no sacks at all. This week he faces a very good, but very beatable San Francisco 49ers pass defense. They boast the 5th best pass DVOA and have given up the 13th fewest passing yards (232) per game this year, the 5th fewest yards per attempt (6.4) and the 8th fewest passing TDs (20) to opposing QBs. They surprisingly only boast the 18th best sack rate (7.2%), 18th best pressure rate (20.9%) and have the 6th worst QB hurry rate (5.3%) this season. With LaFleur dialing up plays right now and the way he moves in the pocket, I expect Jordan Love to yet again have a good game and the 49ers offense to push Love into more passing attempts. 

As I mentioned last week, this Green Bay Packers receiving group is DEEP and it was on full display in the win last weekend. Romeo Doubs ended up being the guy who balled out for the Packers, seeing 76% route participation, a 29% target share, and a 38% target per route run. All of these led the Packers group as he dominated his way to 151 yards and a score on six receptions. No other Packers WR topped 25 receiving yards (Wicks). Dontayvion Wicks was next of the group with 62% route participation, 10% target share and 15% route participation followed by Jayden Reed at 52% route participation, 14% target share and 27% target per route run. Bo Melton and Christian Watson then rounded out the group with Watson having 38% route participation, 5% target share and 13% target per route run and Melton having 33% route participation, 10% target share and 29% target per route run. The Packers were running routes downfield and taking their shots all game. All of the Packers WRs are in play but I’m not going to try and distinct which ones will pop and instead focus on Jordan Love. At TE, it was a split duo between Tucker Kraft who had 62% route participation, 14% target share and 23% target per route run and Luke Musgrave who had 38% route participation, 14% target share and 38% target per route run. Jordan Love has elevated the performance of all of his teammates around him and I expect he continues to do the same here.

With AJ Dillon once again missing last week, Aaron Jones dominated the backfield. He took nearly every snap when the 1st team was on the field and the game was within reach. He ended with 118 rushing yards and three scores on 21 rushing attempts. He was gashing the Cowboys all game long and looked fantastic. This week he faces the 49ers who have given up the 2nd fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year to opposing RBs but are middle of the pack with 4.1 yards per carry landing them 17th in the NFL. They have allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing RBs (5.3) per game yet the 19th most yards per receptions (6.9). Mixing these points and the fact the Packers enter this game as 10 point road dogs, it points towards an Aaron Jones receiving game script. However, Jones only has a 9% target share since Week 10 and is too inconsistent to trust, putting him in the same category as the receivers above in terms of his receiving profile.

Outside of the Ravens game this year, Brock Purdy has been nothing less than sensational for the 49ers. Since Week 7, Purdy averaged the 3rd most passing yards (288) and 3rd most passing TDs (2.1) per game while having the highest yards per attempt (10.3) over that span. Over those games, Purdy only had one game under 7 yards per pass attempt which was Week 12 against the Seattle Seahawks. Over those 10 games, Purdy had at least a 9 YPA or higher in seven games and 11 or higher in five of them. On the season the Packers have the 28th ranked pass DVOA yet have allowed the 22nd most passing yards (223) per game. But, this is why DVOA exists. From Week 1 through Week 11 the Packers allowed only 208 passing yards per game which was 7th best in the NFL. Since Week 12, including last week against the Cowboys, the Packers have given up the 11th most passing yards (245) per game while allowing four of their seven opponents to throw for 310 or more yards. The three games that a QB didn’t eclipse that mark was Tommy DeVito in Week 14 who only threw the ball 21 times, Combination of Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens in Week 17 who combined for 180 yards on 32 pass attempts, and Justin Fields in Week 18 who threw for 148 on only 16 attempts. From Week 1 through Week 11 the Packers allowed 6.7 yards per attempt, 10th best mark in the NFL. However since Week 12, they have allowed 8.2 yards per attempt which ranks as the 2nd worst over that span. With having an extra week to prepare, Kyle Shanahan is going to be in his bag. I am excited to watch both Matt LaFleur and Shanahan go back and forth taking shots but I give a big upper hand to Kyle Shanahan here. Purdy is going to have a FANTASTIC game.

When Kyle Shanahan is coaching a game of high importance, he relies on his studs. So there honestly isn’t much of a point to touch on guys like Juwan Jennings or Ray-Ray McCloud, I don’t think they have much of a statistical contribution in this one unless it is one specific designed play that Shanahan works up and they connect on. So, I want to spend time talking about the big three, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Goerge Kittle. Any one of these three can go off in this game. My choice is Deebo Samuel. Since that Week 7 game I mentioned above with Purdy, Aiyuk and Deebo have pretty similar underlying metrics outside of average depth of target. Aiyuk leads with 86% route participation, 22% target share and 20% target per route run with a 13.91 average depth of target and 35% of the 49ers air yards. Deebo has 81% route participation, 22% target share and 23% target per route run with 7.25 average depth of target and 17% of the team’s air yards. The air yards honestly don’t mean much to me with these two. Purdy has a phenomenal connection with Aiyuk in the intermediate to deep levels of the field while Deebo is an absolute weapon and can house it any time he touches the ball. The Packers are allowing the 9th most receiving yards (167) per game to opposing WRs since Week 12 and have allowed seven WRs to top 90 receiving yards or more over that span. They have even allowed players such as Khalif Raymond, DJ Chark, Adam Theilen, and Michael Gallup to exceed that mark. If the Packers will be without CB, Jaire Alexander on the outside, it is going to be a very long game for this defensive backfield trying to cover and tackle these 49er playmakers. Adding George Kittle usage into the mix since Week 7, Kittle has 89% route participation, 23% target share, 21% target per route run and a robust 10.37 average depth of target, commanding 27% of the team’s air yards. Kittle is matchup proof but the Packers do offer a profitable matchup here. Since Week 12, while the Packers have allowed only 53 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs, which ranks 16th over that span, they have allowed the 7th highest yards per route run (12.2) which is where Kittle is going to attack anyway. Any three of these skilled position guys can eclipse 100 yards receiving in the blink of an eye and I expect at least two of them have a shot. I’ll be shotgunning this group with Purdy and trying to hit their long shot alternate lines as well on top of that.

All season long the Packers have had a subpar rush defense, holding the league’s 26th ranked rush DVOA while allowing the 11th most rushing yards (95) per game throughout the year. However, as I’ve consistently discussed, this is a bit misleading, not a ton, but it is misleading. From Week 1 through 11, they gave up the 7th most rushing Yards (103) per game with team’s averaging 24 rushing attempts against them a game. Keeping the same time frame of the previous seven games, they have allowed opposing RBs to average 85 rushing yards a week against them, ranking them 11th best in the NFL over that span. However, it is simply just due to the fact that opposing offenses ran the ball four less times a game against them. Their rush defense didn’t get any better, their pass defense just got a lot worse. When you face a team like the San Francisco 49ers, you have to be very, very good at defending at least one area of the field, and the Packers simply are not. Christian McCaffrey is the best RB in the NFL at the moment and Kyle Shanahan is the best running game play caller in the NFL, probably ever. CMC led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards this year averaging the 2nd most YPC at 5.4 yards per carry among RBs with at least 100 carries. I could go on and on about McCaffrey but I’d be wasting everyone’s time. He is elite, this ground game is elite, they’re at home, they are 10 point favorites and they have a profitable opponent. Don’t overthink it.

Takeaway

The 49ers are going to win this game. They are going to put the gas pedal down early and they won’t let up. I do think the Packers keep it close and we could actually end up seeing an extreme scoring game like last week in that 70+ point range with a final score around 41-31. The 49ers are simply just too good and Jordan Love’s inexperience shows in this one even though I expect him to have a great game.