Wild Card Weekend Breakdown – Monday
Hey what’s up everyone. For the playoffs I’m going to be doing game by game breakdowns for each game. I’ll go through where we can attack each game and give as much context as I can as to why I am betting what I am as well as give information that you can use to generate your own bets for the games. My main focus is on player props but during the postseason I do like to attack teasers a bit more because I think we have a massive edge given the majority of these games will be close one way or another. We have been absolutely smashing alternate lines this last month so I’m going to continue to be aggressive with it this weekend. If you are new and haven’t reaped those benefits, adjust accordingly and scale down to what you are comfortable with across the board. My recommendation would be to play the bets I posted in full but scale down to what fits your budget. We were up 73.43u last weekend alone and were up 112.88u in December if you followed me then. Due to that, I’m not as focused on nitpicking and driving an immediate positive day as much as I am trying to bring home another big alternative line day. I want the ceiling this weekend and I want to hit multiple alts with the baseline plays paying for them. I understand it is a lot upfront but as I mentioned, it comes from being up so much entering this weekend. So, know that before you start entering the plays and go about it as an entity. As always, let me know in chat if you have any questions about any of the games.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9
Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: Betting Results (+TBD)
PHI @ TB
- TBD
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) PHI -3, O/U 44
Jalen Hurts is hobbling into the playoffs. He has been dealing with a leg injury all year long that has hindered his rushing abilities and in Week 18 he broke a finger on his throwing hand. Even this week along, as of Thursday night, Jalen Hurts said he had not thrown a football. On top of that, Hurts has been downright bad as of late. Since Week 14, Hurts has only topped 200 passing yards once and that was a 301 yard performance against the lowly Giants. Over that five game span, Hurts is only averaging 172 yards per game with a 6.4 yards per attempt and has thrown more interceptions (5) than he has TDs (4). The Bucs are giving the 5th most passing yards per game (267) and have given up the 7th highest yards per attempt (7.5). Even though this is a ripe matchup for Hurts to exploit, we just can’t trust him.
To piggyback on the Jalen Hurts shame train, neither AJ Brown nor DeVonta Smith can be trusted in this game either. Both of them are battling injuries and again, even though this is a ripe matchup, I don’t think the Eagles can take advantage. The Bucs have given up the 4th most receiving yards (178) to opposing WRs this year and the 8th highest yards per reception (13.5). The matchup is just as good for Dallas Goedert at TE, as the Bucs have given up the 2nd most receiving yards (63) to opposing TEs, 3rd most receptions (6.1) and the 6th most TDs (7) per game this year. No team has had the TE position targeted more than the Bucs, whose defense is averaging 9.1 targets per game headed to the TE spot. I wish I could trust this passing offense but I just can’t. Between all of the injuries, the inability to run the ball, the inconsistent gameplans and play calling from first year Offensive Coordinator, Brian Johnson, I just can’t trust them to put our hard earned money on any consistency.
Speaking of inability to consistently run the rock on the ground, D’Andre Swift has been very inconsistent this year. The usage has been there for Swift as he has run the ball at least 10 times in every game this year except for Week 1 against the Patriots and Week 13 against the 49ers. He has been able to average 14.3 rush attempts per game for 65 yards with a respectable 4.6 yards per carry. However, Swift faces the pass funnel defense of the Tampa Bay Bucs in this game. The Bucs have the 8th best DVOA and gave up the 10th fewest rushing yards at 81 per game. They also only allowed 3.9 yards per carry which is 8th best in the NFL and only 5 rushing TDs on the season, 3rd fewest in the NFL. I think the Eagles have a tough time in this game moving the ball consistently and if they do, it is going to eat up a chunk of the clock while the Bucs offense does the same. This is an avoid spot for me.
Baker Mayfield, just like his counterpart in this one, is banged up. Both Hurts and Baker will play, but it is worth mentioning because this is also a smash spot for Baker that pushes me to avoid. The Eagles’ defense has been atrocious this year. They have allowed the 4th most passing yards (267) per game to opposing QBs this year. However, since the Eagles switched to Matt Patricia for their Defensive Coordinator, this has dropped to 234 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the NFL over the last four weeks of the season. I want to mention, however, that the QBs they have faced were Drew Lock, Tommy Devito, Kyler Murray and Tyrod Taylor. Kyler Murray threw the ball 31 times, completing 25 of them for 232 yards and three scores while Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards on 32 attempts on 23 completions for a TD and a pick. Drew Lock also played solid against them, throwing for 208 yards on 33 attempts with a pick. This pass defense is a tad improved but it still isn’t good. Since Baker is banged up, it really isn’t a spot I want to attack. I do want to mention though, over the last month of the season Baker Mayfield has thrown for 277 yards per game which ranks 5th in the NFL over that span. He also has the 5th most passing TDs (8) and only two interceptions since Week 15. The Bucs have had weak opponents over that span though, facing the Packers, Jaguars, Saints, and Panthers. The Panthers held him to 137 yards on 32 pass attempts (4.3 YPA). Baker will be fine here and I think he leads the Bucs to a victory but it won’t be a gaudy game and I think his passing yards line is right.
After the Bucs Week 13 game against the Carolina Panthers, Chris Godwin’s wife went on a rant on social media, calling out the Buccaneers coaching staff. Since then, Godwin has seen elite usage. He has a 91% route participation and a 29% target share with a respectable 10.45 average depth of target. He is 8th in the NFL with 46 targets over this span, 6th in the NFL with 30 receptions and 6th with 418 receiving yards. Behind him since the rant is Mike Evans who has a 93% route participation and a 19% target share with a very nice 13.61 average depth of target. He has trailed behind Godwin in production, catching 18 of his 32 targets for 243 yards and three scores. Third behind Evans is WR Trey Palmer who has come on as of late. Palmer has a 71% route participation with a nice 16% target per route run and a 13% target share overall with a nice 11.15 average depth of target. He has played well, making big plays for Baker Mayfield after the catch, accumulating 204 receiving yards and a score on 15 catches (22 targets). The only other pass catcher worth mentioning is TE Cade Otten who has a 93% route participation and a 12% target share with a 8.35 average depth of target since Week 14. If a play comes from this WR group, it will be from Godwin or Evans.
Rachaad White has a better matchup this week than everyone thinks. Since Matt Patricia took over as the Defensive Coordinator in Week 14, the Eagles have given up the 7th most rushing yards (109) per game, the 3rd most rushing TDs (5) and the 3rd most receiving TDs (2) to opposing RBs over that span. This is a stark difference from Week 1 through Week 13 under previous Eagles Defensive Coordinator, Sean Desai, who focused on stopping the run. Over that 12 game span, the Eagles had given up the 5th fewest rushing yards (67) per game and only three TDs total to opposing RBs. On the season, White has turned into a bell cow RB, taking 79% of the team’s offensive snaps and handling 67% of the team’s rushing attempts while also having a 71% route participation. He has earned a 13% target share himself and holds a 16% target per route run. White doesn’t come off of the field. This is the spot to attack this game for action from his rushing line to 63.5 and any time TD with -105, all of it is in play.
Takeaway
I think the Bucs win this game and I actually think they do it with relative ease. The Eagles are just too banged up and when you mix in coaching mismatches, the Bucs have the advantage almost across the board. This will be a low scoring game and the Bucs are my favorite “underdog” to pull off the upset this week.
Unofficial Bets
Game 1
- TBD
