Divisional Weekend Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone. We had another successful and positive weekend. One reason is due to the alt plays we continue to hit. I’ve been listening to chat and starting this week I am going to try out two different play sheets. I will post my normal play sheet that I’ve been doing. I’ve been having a ton of success with these alternate lines and I’m going to continue to ride the wave. However, I also understand that not everyone in chat can get those lines. So what I am going to do is create a second unofficial sheet for those who can’t play alternate lines or are on tighter books. I’m doing my best to be as transparent and profitable for everyone in chat so if anyone has any requests or suggestions, let me know and I’ll see what I can do. Let’s continue this wave and ride to championship weekend with another positive week!

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

Disclosure: How I bet

Betting Log: Betting Results (+222.24)

Unofficial Betting Log: Betting Results (Unofficial) (TBD)

 

TB @ DET

Official (with alts)

• Baker Mayfield o242.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – Fanduel (Posted 1/16/24 @ 5:42pm)

• Baker Mayfield 300+ Passing Yards (+360): 2u – Draftkings (Posted 1/17/24 @ 7:36am) 

• Baker Mayfield 325+ Passing Yards (+450): 1u – PointsBet (Posted 1/17/24 @ 7:36am) 

• Baker Mayfield 350+ Passing Yards (+850): 2u – PointsBet (Posted 1/17/24 @ 7:36am) 

• Baker Mayfield 375+ Passing Yards (+1500): 3u – PointsBet (Posted 1/17/24 @ 7:36am) 

• Mike Evans o65.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – BetRivers

• Mike Evans 95+ Receiving Yards (+280): 1u – PointsBet

• Mike Evans 110+ Receiving Yards (+500): 1u – PointsBet

• Mike Evans 125+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – PointsBet

• Amon-Ra St. Brown o89.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel (Posted 1/16/24 @ 5:42pm)

• Amon-Ra St. Brown 155+ Receiving Yards (+850): .5u – PointsBet

• Amon-Ra St. Brown 170+ Receiving Yards (+1400): 1u – PointsBet

Unofficial (without alts)

• Baker Mayfield o242.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – Fanduel

• Mike Evans o65.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – BetRivers

• Amon-Ra St. Brown o89.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel

KC @ BUF

Official (no alts in this one)

• Rashee Rice o6.5 Receptions (-105): 3u – MGM

• Josh Allen o.5 Interceptions (-110): 3u – MGM

• Dalton Kincaid o38.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) @ Detroit Lions (12-5) DET -6.5, O/U 48.5

Baker Mayfield is dealing right now. Over his last five games he has thrown for at least 282 in four of them. The only game he didn’t was against the Carolina Panthers, who boasted the best pass defense in a lot of metrics this season. Over that span (since Week 15) Baker has averaged the 4th most passing yards at 289 per game and has put up totals of 381 (@ GB), 283 (vs. JAX), 309 (vs. NO), 137 (@ CAR), and 337 (vs. PHI). He has a fantastic 11 TDs with only two picks and is boasting an attractive 8.8 yards per attempt. He is taking plenty of shots with plenty of volume, putting out 256 air yards per game. As I’ve gone over many times and we saw last week once again, the Lions pass defense is atrocious. They don’t really care if you rip off chunk plays, they just try to limit the explosive TDs. Key word, try. Going with the same time frame as I went with last week, the Lions have now given up a league high 291 passing yards per game since Week 10. Over these nine games, they have allowed five QBs to throw for 323 or more yards against them in a game, including each of their last four opponents. If we narrow it down to just the last four games, the Lions are allowing an absolutely insane 384 passing yards per game at 9.8 yards per attempt. The Lions come into this game as 6-point favorites with a 48.5 game total indicating the Lions are going to be winning and the Bucs are going to be slinging it from snap one. The Buccaneers have a very good run defense and funnel things to the air. The Lions are going to have some success on the ground but Lions Offensive Coordinator, Ben Johnson, is smart enough to devise a game plan good enough to generate open passing lanes for his guys and strike quick. This Baker Mayfield line is WAY too low. 

I’m going to look at the Bucs last five games for the receiving group to keep in line with Baker Mayfield’s sample size. Since Week 15, both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have paced the WR group.

	Route %	TPPR %	Target %	ADOT	Air Yard %
Mike Evans	93%	17%	20%	14.53	29%
Chris Godwin	90%	21%	24%	10.03	34%
Trey Palmer	63%	18%	14%	11.29	19%
David Moore	24%	17%	5%	9.25	5%
Deven Thompkins	9%	22%	3%	-2.75	-1%
Cade Otton	92%	13%	14%	6.26	11%

After Evans and Godwin, Otton has the most usage followed by Palmer and David Moore. Moore’s role grew in the Wild Card playoff game as he took 42% route participation and a season high 9% target share. In correlated usage, Trey Palmer saw his worst usage since Week 2. He only held 33% route participation and a 6% target share. Due to this, we can’t trust any WR of this group outside of Evans and Godwin in terms of volume and the others should be viewed as boom or bust. At TE, Cade Otton turned out his best game of the season in terms of volume in last week’s playoff matchup against the Eagles. Prior to last week, Ottons highest target share was nine targets in a game, a game in which he caught six of them for 70 yards and two scores. Last week he saw 11 targets, catching eight of them for 89 yards. Over the Lions last four games, at least one WR has topped 140 receiving yards and a score in each of them. To be blunt, they have faced some elite WRs but good thing for the Bucs, they have a pair of very good to elite WRs themselves. In Week 16 Justin Jefferson caught six of 10 targets for 141 yards and a score, Week 17 CeeDee Lamb caught 13 of 17 yards for 227 yards and a score. Week 18 was Jefferson again, catching 12 of his 14 targets for 192 yards and a score. Lastly was last week with Puka Nacua catching nine of his 10 targets for 181 yards and a score. Overall during that span, opposing WRs have averaged a league high 285 receiving yards per game with a 15.9 yards per route run and an average of 2 receiving TDs per game. My bet is for Mike Evans to take the top off of this defense and have one of his explosive games. In terms of Cade Otton, The Lions have been gashed by TEs over the last month but not nearly like they have been by opposing WRs. Opposing TEs are averaging 73 receiving yards per game against them which is the 8th most in the NFL over that span and opposing TEs have averaged 13.9 yards per reception which is 3rd most over that span. Opposing TEs are also averaging the 15th most targets (7) and 14th most receptions (5.3) per game against them. Otton should be in for another game but he is a tough one to predict with his inconsistencies so I’m sticking to Baker Mayfield and the top WRs in this one. 

Rachaad White has been a beast this year. Through last week’s game, White has a 79% snap share, 67% rush attempt share, a 71% route participation, a 13% target share and 15% targets per route run. He is a true bell cow back that has played well enough to earn that usage but this is one of, if not the toughest matchup he has faced this year. As I mentioned last week, the Lions have given up the fewest rushing yards (61) per game this season, the lowest yards per carry (3.5) and carry the league’s best rush DVOA. They rank top 6 in almost all adjusted metrics including adjusted line yards, power success (3rd or 4th down with less than 2 yards), second level (5-10 yards) and open field (10+ yards) and have still not allowed a single RB to run for more than 70 yards against them all year. During the sample size above with them being gashed in the air, opposing RBs are averaging 57 rushing yards per game against them at a 3.7 yards per attempt clip and only have one TD. I’ll stick to the air game in this one.

Jared Goff has played extremely well for the Lions and he has turned it on over the last month of the season. Since Week 15 (5 games), Goff has averaged 280 passing yards per game which is 6th in the NFL over that span. He is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, 10th highest in the NFL and has averaged two passing TDs per game (6th most), 10th overall. He has thrown for at least 257 yards in all five games, topping 270 in four of the five. However, the only game Goff topped 300 was against the Vikings in Week 18 where he landed on 320 passing yards. The Bucs have a solid pass defense in terms of personnel but they are a pass funnel defense. They have allowed the 5th most passing yards (267) per game on the season with a 7.5 yards per attempt from opposing QBs which ranks 7th most in the NFL. They do their best to clog up the run and bring exotic blitzes. This won’t mesh well against the Lions who are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and have a top 3 offensive line. If the Lions can move the ball on the ground, which I expect them to have at least moderate success doing so, and their blitz packages can’t get to him, Goff is going to have a ton of one on one and open passing lanes all game. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown is honestly the one WR we can trust to consistently put up volume and big numbers in this offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 92% route participation, a 31% target share and 8.29 average depth of target, good for 37% of the team’s air yards over the last five games. We saw last week that Josh Reynolds can emerge as a top target out of nowhere. The last two weeks Reynolds has seen 91% and 97% route participation with 23% and 24% target per route run with overall target shares of 23% and 28%. Prior to those two games, Reynolds didn’t top a 10% target share in any of the previous three games. Behind Reynolds is Jameson Williams, who can take the top off the defense and score from any point of the field. Keeping with the last five game sample size as above, Williams has 66% route participation, 19% target per route run and 14% target share overall. He has a generous 12.72 average depth of target and 25% of the Lion’s air yards. There is no one else worth mentioning in this WR group. At TE, we have the freak that is Sam LaPorta who was active last week after a massive knee injury scare. He ended up having 80% route participation with a 12% target share and 13% target per route run. It will be very hard to trust LaPorta in this game given the unknown of his limitations due to that knee injury he has. On the season, the Bucs have given up the 4th most receiving yards to opposing WRs and the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing TEs. They have allowed 13 WRs to top 90 or more receiving yards in a game this year and Amon-Ra St. Brown just happens to be sitting with an over/under of 89.5. I’m going to be shying away from LaPorta as I mentioned due to the uncertainty behind his injury even though he looked good last week. The Bucs have allowed 10 opposing TEs to top at least 37 receiving yards this year and LaPorta is one of the most talented TEs in the NFL. If he is healthy enough to be in the game plan, he should smash his prop. 

The Lions have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. As a team they had the 5th most rushing yards during the regular season with the most rushing TDs and 5th most yards per rushing attempt at 4.6 per attempt. David Montgomery starts out of the gate but this is a near 50/50 split between him and stud RB, Jahmyr Gibbs. On the season, Montgomery has a 46% snap share with a 51% rush attempt share and a 4% target share on 33% route participation. Gibbs has a 51% snap share, taking 44% of the team’s rushing attempts with an 11% target share on 44% route participation. Both of their rushing lines always hover in the low 50’s in terms of yardage and Vegas usually pins them down pretty well, not giving us much of an edge against a tough opponent. As I mentioned above when talking about Jared Goff, the Bucs have a pass funnel defense, meaning they do everything they can to stop the run and force you to throw. They have the 8th rank rush DVOA and allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards (81) per game this year with the 9th fewest RB yards per carry (3.94). Odds are at least one of these backs, if not both get into the endzone and both will likely end around their rushing yardage total give or take a few yards. I don’t see much of an edge with their lines at the moment.

Takeaway

The Bucs are playing solid football right but the Lions will just be too much for them to handle. They are just too good on every level of offense and will outlast the Bucs. I expect a lot of points to be scored and yardage to be obtained.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6) BUF -2.5, O/U 45

I’ll never doubt Patrick Mahomes. He is just simply too good but this is a tough matchup for him. We all know what Mahomes can do and the offense will always go through him. The Chiefs finished the season with a 67% pass rate which was 2nd in the NFL and led the league in pass rate over expectation at 6.6%. As I went over last week, the Bills have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 11 the Bills have allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards per game (175) and the 2nd fewest yards per attempt (5.9) in the NFL. The only QB over this span to throw for over 230 yards was, you guessed it, Patrick Mahomes in Week 14. In that game Mahomes didn’t play particularly well as he completed 25 of 43 passes for only 270 yards which was a 6.27 yards per attempt. He ended with one score and one pick. This was the game that Kadarius Toney was notoriously called for offsides on offense that thwarted any chances the Chiefs had at winning the game. I’d expect Mahomes to have volume but another tough time getting anything going in the air. I think when you factor in the frigid and windy weather (will feel like -5) his passing yardage of 258.5 is properly priced.

 

On the receiving end it is really only two players the Chiefs throw to. Since Week 12 when Rashee Rice emerged, he and Travis Kelce have accounted for 49% of the team’s target share with only Mecole Hardman topping a 7% share. I want to note that Mecole’s share is a bit misleading as he has only been active for three games with the Chiefs and he had a 37% share in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Chargers. He didn’t have a target in Week 17 and he only had three targets (9%) last week against Miami. Over those last seven games, Rice is 5th in the NFL with 9.9 targets per game, 4th with 7.3 receptions, and 6th with 92 receiving yards per game. He averaged 81% route participation, 28% target rate, 27% target per route run, and 25% of the Chiefs’ air yards. Over the same span, Kelce has 87% route participation, 21% target rate, 19% target per route run and 22% of the Chiefs air yards. The Bills have given up the 2nd fewest receiving yards (111) to opposing WRs since Week 11. They are only allowing 10.6 yards per reception (3rd best) and a 56.8% catch rate (5th best). The last time these two teams played in Week 14, Rice caught seven balls for 72 yards and a score on 10 targets while Kelce caught six of his 10 targets for 83 scoreless yards. I’m going to see how the weekend shakes out but if I land on anyone from this group it will be with Rice and his receptions based on volume.

 

When these teams played in Week 14, Isiah Pacheco was not active. In that game, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon combined to run the ball 15 times for only 48 yards. But, good thing for the Chiefs Pacheco will be 100% for this game. Since returning from his injury in Week 16, Pacheco has played three games, averaging a 73% snap share, 78% of the team’s rushing attempts and 58% route participation with a 14% target share. He has yet to fall below 69% of the team’s rushing attempts in those three games and has run for 130 yards and 89 yards in these last two games. The Bills rush defense is middle of the pack and isn’t one I typically attack. Pacheco is the type of back I would want to use against Buffalo in this situation with the weather being the way it is but I ironically just can’t trust his volume. Given how often the Chiefs throw the ball and how the Bills chew up clock on long drives, he may have a 75% rushing attempt share but only see 12-14 carries which falls right around his rushing line of 61.5 rushing yards. 

 

Josh Allen continued his average to above average ways in the air against the Steelers last week. He completed 21 of his 30 attempts for 203 yards and three scores. Good for him though, he didn’t have any turnovers. He added 74 rushing yards and a score on eight rush attempts in that game. The Chiefs passing defense comes into this game as one of the league’s best. Since Week 14, the last time the Chiefs and Bills played, the Chiefs have given up only 188 passing yards per game which ranks 3rd fewest in the NFL over that span. Opposing QBs averaged a league low 5.3 yards per attempt and they only averaged .7 passing TDs per game, also a league best. The only QB outside of Josh Allen to throw for over 200 yards was Easton Stick in Week 18, a meaningless game for the Chiefs and he needed 47 attempts to get there. In that Week 14, Josh Allen completed only 23 of 42 passes for 233 yards with a score and pick added in. He ran the ball 10 times for 32 yards and another score. Again, given the matchup and the weather, I’d expect around the same output. I’m not interested in his 227.5 passing yards. It looks like his rushing lines have stayed about the same with Vegas giving him 8.5 attempts and 44.5 rushing yards almost across the board. These lines are playable but I’ll like watch from the sidelines this week on Josh Allen. 

 

At WR, the Chiefs are likely going to shut down the Bills best option, Stefon Diggs. In Week 14 Stefon Diggs only caught four of his 11 passes for a measly 24 yards. The Bills receiving group as a whole combined to have only 80 receiving yards on 17 targets. Given that the Chiefs will double Diggs and do everything in their power to take him out of the game and make someone else beat them, I’m not interested in Diggs. Behind Diggs, Gabe Davis has led the WR group with 78% route participation, a 12% target share and 12% target per route run while seeing a whopping 18.8 average depth of target good for 24% of the team’s air yards. Gabe Davis was unable to play in last week’s playoff game against the Steelers and is very questionable for this game itself. Behind Davis is Khalil Shakir who has 75% route participation, a 11% target share and 12% route participation since Week 11. The player I would want to target, if I do, would be rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid has 71% route participation since Week 11 and is 2nd on the team behind Diggs with a 19% target share and 21% target per route run. He has a very nice 10.09 average depth of target and has 22% of the team’s air yards. He has had at least six targets and 59 receiving yards in each of the last three games. In Week 14 Kincaid caught five of eight targets for 21 yards. I think the Chiefs make Kincaid step up to the plate in this one and win his matchups consistently, which I think he does.

 

Since Week 11 under Offensive Coordinator, Joe Brady, James Cook is pacing a 55% snap share, 50% rush share (16.9 attempts per game), 47% route participation and 12% targets per game with a 23% target per route run. In Week 14, Cook dominated this Chiefs defense. In that game Cook gained 58 rushing yards on only 10 rushing attempts while catching all five of his targets for 83 yards and a score. On the surface I would love to go back and attack with Cook but I have a suspicious feeling that Chiefs Defensive Coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo is going to work up a scheme to slow down James Cook in the air. I may take a stab at his rushing line depending on how the weekend goes but the Chiefs aren’t typically a defense I would be targeting. If I end up on Cook’s line it would be due to the volume he is seeing mixed with temperatures rather than the matchup. The Chiefs are giving up the 12th fewest rushing yards (84), the 11th fewest receptions (4.4), and 7th fewest receiving yards (27) per game to opposing RBs on the season. Since Week 15 as they have given up the 5th fewest rushing yards (66), 11th most receptions (4.8) and 10th fewest receiving yards (25) per game.  

 

Takeaway

I honestly think you can flip a coin for who wins this game. I guess gun to my head, the Bills take it home. But I’m not better either side and if I had to pick, I’d bet the under. I think this is going to be a close game with both teams scoring in the low 20s, finishing around 23-20.

 

Unofficial Bets

TB @ DET

• Chris Godwin o58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – Draftkings

• Chris Godwin 110+ Receiving Yards (+700) – PointsBet

• Chris Godwin 125+ Receiving Yards (+1400) – PointsBet

• Josh Reynolds 80+ Receiving Yards (+800) – PointsBet

• Jameson Williams 80+ Receiving Yards (+750) – PointsBet

 

KC @ BUF

• Josh Allen o44.5 Rushing Yards (-112) – BetRivers

• Patrick Mahomes o27.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Fanduel