How I bet
I want to take a second to go over how I bet and where my main focus is. I have found over the years that by far the most profitable edges in football come through player props. You will find that almost every single bet I place is a player prop of some sort. Also, I usually play overs. I do this for two reasons. The first reason is because I like to center my focus in one direction and that is against poor defenses with good players. I have found this to be an easier thing to attack and more consistent over the years. Secondly, I simply find it funner to root for overs. I do this because I thoroughly enjoy it and it has become a second income for me. Every now and then I will play an under if I deem it to be a profitable line but since my focus, week in and week out, is mainly towards the bad defenses, it forces me to zero in on that bucket of the NFL. Because of this, I am not looking for an under bet naturally but rather looking for plays I don’t seem worthy of a bet. I would rather just lay off of a line rather than place a bet on every single player. Every now and then I will attack a game line, over/under, or even Team Totals.
Breakdowns
I do a breakdown for every single bet I place. I do this because I want the audience to understand why I landed on a specific bet. This then gives them the opportunity to scale their personal units to what they see fit. Also, I do this because if I can’t make a breakdown argument for why I am playing a player prop, I shouldn’t be playing it. I fully understand that this is your money I am recommending you bet with. That is a tall order. If I can’t do the simplest of tasks of making an argument as to why I am posting a bet, I shouldn’t be posting the bet. There have been countless times that I have liked a player and dug into it and couldn’t muster up enough evidence to do a write up for that play. This happens every single week actually. I also firmly believe that every single NFL game has at least one line that offers an edge, I just need to find it. It may not be a large edge, but it is an edge nonetheless. The only time that I have a tough time working up a breakdown is during a live bet. I will explain in discord any time I place a live bet with a few sentences on where my head is at with the bet.
Live Bets
It is imperative you get into the discord for live betting and turn on notifications. When it comes to a live bet, I will explain why I am placing the bet but I usually don’t have time for the explanation until after we get the bet in since live lines move so swiftly. I look for a few things when placing a live bet. First, I want to see who the player is and what they were pre game. Usually a sportsbook’s algorithm can’t keep up with certain players or lines if they weren’t projected for a lot pre game. I attacked the Cincinnati Bengals run defense with Minnesota Vikings RB, Ty Chandler, a few weeks ago because of this. The Vikings were playing the Bengals and on the first drive of the game, Bengals stud Defensive Tackle, DJ Reader, was injured and ruled out for the game. On that drive, Ty Chandler ate up the Bengals defense for 30 rushing yards which was half of his pre game total. Because of this, the live line could not properly adjust to where it needed to be. It can’t pick up that Reader was injured and it has a hard time adjusting to the workload I foresaw for Chandler. We immediately hit Chandler live (twice) while hitting the long shot play of over 125+ rushing yards at a +550 line. Another instance was a game when the Raiders played the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. The Raiders were only projected to score 17.5 points before the game started. It was obvious a few drives into the game that the Raiders wanted to make a statement. On top of that, the Chargers quit on their Head Coach and it was obvious. The score was 42-0 at half time. The books couldn’t properly adjust to such a shoot out and we’re still priming their lines as if the Raiders weren’t going to continue to score. The live line after half was the Raiders TT over 48.5. Coming out of half, the Raiders Head Coach said they were going to press their foot on the pedal even harder. Again, the books can not adjust to this, they can only adjust to the bets coming in to move the lines in an instance like that. The Raiders went out and scored an opening half TD and had 49 within a few game minutes. They ended up 63 and we walked away with 12u strictly from live betting the Team Total.
Unit Scale
Every bet I place I will put a unit size next to the play. I have a system of 1u through 5u on what I will play on a certain bet. If I place 1u on a bet, it is likely a longer shot bet and I usually don’t go after even lines with just 1 unit. I will typically stay between 2-3 units on regular props and use a 5 unit bet for plays I REALLY like. I rarely pull out the 5u mark and if I do, it is because the stars have aligned and I want to take advantage of a ripe situation mixed with a profitable line.
Odds Usage
When I place a bet it will either be a (-) in the -105 through -150 range and I will have an even unit size next to that bet. If it is a negative line I am betting, it will ALWAYS be a “to win” bet. For example, if the bet is a 2u bet with a -115 line, it will be “bet 2.3u to win 2u” on the books. If the line is a positive line (+) then I always be a “to bet” line. For example, if the bet is a 2u bet with a +200 line, it will be “bet 2u to win 4u” on the books. Please ask me in chat for any clarification on this.
Ladders
I also want to explain how and why I ladder. I will ladder a few different ways and I think the way I ladder is different from most people. I will list an example below of a ladder:
- Tyreek Hill o86.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u MAX
- Tyreek Hill 110+ Receiving Yards (+210): 2u
- Tyreek Hill 125+ Receiving Yards (+350): 1u
- Tyreek Hill 140+ Receiving Yards (+600): 1u
- Tyreek Hill 155+ Receiving Yards (+1050): 2u
In most ladders, you will see it slowly funneling down with the longer shot plays being the lowest bet amount. That’s not how I do a ladder. I want it like an hourglass to where my heaviest bets are at the top, we hit the main line and it pays for the remainder of the ladder with profit. Then once we get into the longer odds (in this instance it is 110+, bypassing 100+ because it isn’t worth the bet), we really make some money. When I do a ladder bet, I fully, 100%, expect to be contending for that last and final bet. So with this mindset, I want to take home the gold. I want to get the best bang for my buck and hitting for 21u in this instance is a game changer. There is no point, in my opinion, in putting half a unit on the longest shot. Why even play it at that point? Being profitable over the course of a season by trying to beat Vegas is extremely difficult. I’ve made a profitable living by attacking aggressively in spots that have longer odds. So when I find a line that I think we can exploit, I attack it. This is why you’ll see my heavy at the time, cruise through with 1u in the middle of the ladder and then always have more units on the final portion of the ladder, offering the best odds.
