Super Bowl LVIII
Hey what’s up everyone! The 2023-2024 season is coming to a close and we are going to end this year up at least 150u (hopefully a lot more). So, below I have gone back a bit to my roots before I got hot with the alternate lines. I don’t see anything in this game deserving of the alternate lines at their current price tags beyond just playing for fun. Speaking of fun, I want to emphasize that this game should be encountered that way. It is the final game of the season. Most of you will be watching with friends or family while stuffing your face with food, and maybe alcohol. This game is an event and I approach it by going heavy (as you see two 5u plays) on my main bets but using that expected winnings to help pay for “fun” bets which I have listed as unofficial bets at the bottom of this article. Please let me know in chat if you have any questions or would like my opinion on any of the other novelty props. Good luck!
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9
Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: Betting Results (+183.89)
SF vs KC
- Christian McCaffrey o89.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – Fanduel
- Travis Kelce o66.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Fanduel
- Isiah Pacheco o65.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
- Brock Purdy o11.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 2u – Fanduel
- Brock Purdy 1+ TD (+850): 1u – Fanduel
- Brock Purdy 1st TD (Rushing) (+4300): 1u – Fanduel
MVP
- Christian McCaffrey (+450): 1u – Fanduel
- Travis Kelce (+1700): 1u – Fanduel
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) SF -2, O/U 47
Brock Purdy is in for his biggest test of the postseason in this game. In his first two games he has played rather poorly and all of the bounces have gone his way, that is unlikely to happen in this one. In those two games Purdy has thrown the ball for 519 yards and two scores on 70 pass attempts which is at 7.41 yards per attempt, a far cry from his regular season average of 9.6 YPA. On top of that, 51 of those 519 yards (10.18%) came on a pass that bounced through the hands of a Lions defender and off his head, allowing Brandon Aiyuk to make an achromatic catch. If that ball is picked, like it should have been, Purdy has a 6.69 YPA and it is likely we are seeing the Lions in the Super Bowl rather than the 49ers. These mistakes and airmailed throws won’t work against this elite Chiefs passing attack. Since Week 15, the Chiefs have allowed only 193 passing yards per game over that seven game span. They have allowed only 5 passing TDs (.7 per game) and a ridiculous 5.5 yards per attempt. Lamar Jackson is the only QB over that span to top 200 yards (272) if you overlook the Week 18 game in which Easton Stick threw for 258 since it was a pointless game against backups. However, as I mentioned last week with Lamar, the Chiefs are susceptible to the run. They are not going to be game planning to take away the legs of Brock Purdy or any QB for that matter. Due to this, Purdy should see some opening lanes when the pass breakdown which is what he did in the NFC Championship as he ran for 48 yards on five attempts. His line is low, sitting at 11.5 so we could cash that in one, maybe two runs when he takes off.
Keeping the same sample size as above, the Chiefs have only allowed 107 receiving yards to opposing WRs and 50 per game to opposing TEs since Week 15 (7 games). With this being a tough matchup and the 49ers receiving group being centralized but also spread out in the same sense, I don’t see an edge on any one of the three between Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle. This isn’t a scenario where two of the three will hit, I thought that last week and picked the two who didn’t hit while Deebo smashed his line. On the season, Aiyuk has 87% route participation with a 24% target share and 22% targets per route run, Deebo has 76% route participation, 21% target share and 23% target per route run with at least three carries in five of his last 11 games, and Kittle has 89% route participation, a 19% target share and 18% target per route run. This group is condensed which is what I am for in a receiving core but it also is more or less unpredictable. Mixing in the unpredictability of Brock Purdy of recent, I’m shying away and focusing on CMC in this matchup.
I love Christian McCaffrey in this game. Not only will the 49ers lean on him due to natural tendencies of their offense under Kyle Shanahan, this is the best path to attack the Kansas City Chiefs. It won’t show on paper because Offensive play callers can’t get out of their way, but the Chiefs are flat out bad at defending the run. We won’t have that issue with Shanahan in this game as he approaches every game as if it is a low scoring haymaker battle. The Chiefs will trot out the 27th ranked rush DVOA on the season. Their defense ranks 25th in adjusted line yards, 28th in RB yards (4.57), 32nd in power success, 24th in stuffed rate, 16th in 2nd level and 29th in open field. The 49ers offense ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards, 2nd in RB yards (4.96 – duh, CMC), 7th in power success, 4th in stuffed success, 3rd in 2nd level and 2nd in open field. This is an extreme mismatch and I plan to be all over it. If the 49ers win this game, I think CMC will be the MVP. He has a great shot at two or even three TDs in this game.
Patrick Mahomes is ridiculous. He is playing out of his mind right now with an extremely limited supporting cast in terms of receiving abilities. His best and most dynamic WR is a rookie who has a 5.18 average depth of target and their main playmaker is a 33 year old TE who is still finding ways to get it done at an elite level. It isn’t pretty in the box score but watching these games over the last couple months, no one is stopping Patrick Mahomes. He is almost impossible to bring down in the pocket, he is making every throw imaginable and if everything is covered, he’ll scamper for 15+ yards and break the back of the defense, demoralizing them time and time again. The 49ers pass defense isn’t one I’d specifically target as since Week 10 they have held opposing QBs to a 6.4 yards per attempt. The only reason that they have allowed 230 a game is because they force opposing QBs to throw more than they want to due to dominating on offense. This isn’t a spot I’m going to be attacking with Mahomes as I think his passing yardage line is about right, maybe a tad low but if the 49ers can control the clock on the ground, Mahomes volume will be impacted which puts the prop line right where it should be. I’ll be focusing on Kelce, who I think has a huge advantage here. Mahomes rushing line of 24.5 is fine but again, I don’t see a huge edge. He is either going to break a long run or he isn’t, I’d rather put my money elsewhere.
The receiving group for the Chiefs has been narrowed down the second half of the season to just Rice and Kelce. This is even more evident in the playoffs, specifically against the Ravens. Over the three games, four players have a double digit target share and only two have at least a 10% target share in all three games. Rashee Rice has 87% route participation with a 25% target share and 23% target per route run and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 65% route participation with a 10% target share and 11% target per route run. Rice has a 5.13 average depth of target and MVS has a 19.38 adot. It is pretty clear what the Chiefs are doing on offense as they are using Rice at the line of scrimmage, letting him break tackles and make moves after the catch and going deep with MVS. Surprisingly the last (beside Kelce, I’ll get to him next) player to hit double digit target share is none other than Noah Gray. As I mentioned last week, the Chiefs are using a lot of two TE sets which is benefiting Gray. Gray has a 41% route participation with a 10% target share and 18% target per route run. He has at least three targets in each of the Chiefs last two games and with both Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore both expected to miss the Super Bowl, or play very, very little, I expect Gray to have another role in this offense. Everything else though? It is going to Travis Kelce. Kelce has an absurd 30% target share and 27% target per route run on 89% route participation with a 7.48 average depth of target in these playoffs. Over Kelce’s last 12 playoff games he has topped 71 yards and five receptions in every single one. He is averaging 8.67 receptions for 98.17 yards over those 12 games with 13 total TDs and at least one TD in all but two games. He has at least 10 targets in two of the three playoff games this year and just last week he caught all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a TD. It is clear the Chiefs are relying on Kelce and I don’t expect that to change in this game, regardless of matchup and this 49ers team just let rookie Sam LaPorta catch nine balls for 97 receiving yards on 13 targets. Fire Kelce with the utmost confidence and if you want a ladder, his reception ladder is the way to go.
Opposing offenses have had great success running the ball against the 49ers this postseason. In the divisional round, the Packers’ Aaron Jones ran the ball 18 times for 108 rushing yards. Last week in the NFC Championship game, David Montgomery ran the ball 15 times for 93 yards and a score while Jahmyr Gibbs ran the ball 12 times for 45 yards and a score. The 49ers are allowing opposing backs to have success both up the gut and on the edges while having trouble tackling in space. Isiah Pacheco enters this game with a 65.5 rushing line, a mark he has topped in each of his last four games and in all three postseason games so far this year. Over the last four weeks he is averaging 48 snaps, 20.3 rushing attempts and 96 rushing yards a game with a 4.7 yards per carry and four TDs. He has run the ball at least 15 times in each of those four games and has carry totals of 18, 24, 15, and 24. I expect the hard running RB to have success here and I do like his rushing line, I expect him to top both 16 rushing attempts and 66 rushing yards here.
Takeaway
Flip a coin on who wins this game. I’ll never bet against Patrick Mahomes but the 49ers have the better overall team and match up well on offense to run it down the Chiefs throats. I think this is going to come down to QB play and Mahomes has a significant advantage over Purdy. Gun to my head, I say the Chiefs win in a high scoring game with both offenses converting TDs rather than settling for FGs throughout the game.
MVP
This is just a long shot to take on someone other than the top 3 to win MVP. Obviously, if the Chiefs win Mahomes will be the favorite to win the MVP (+135) and if the 49ers win, it would theoretically fall in line with Purdy to win MVP (+200). However, I think that if the 49ers win, it will be because Christian McCaffrey absolutely balls out. As I mentioned above, this is a great matchup for him. If the 49ers win, and CMC goes out there and has 140+ all purpose yards and multiple TDs (very, very achievable), I think he would be in line for the MVP. If the Chiefs win this game, and Travis Kelce has a 100+ yard game with multiple scores while accounting for 35%+ of the KC receiving yards, I think he has a legit shot to win the MVP. The MVP voting is done by both the fans and media members. They’re 16 media members who vote on the MVP and they account for 80% of the vote while the remaining 20% is accounted for by the fans. Don’t underestimate the power of Taylor Swift fans coming to the rescue if the Chiefs win. If the Chiefs win, not only will Kelce have a shot to capture a ton of that 20% vote just by default, he has a shot to steal the media member votes if he has a great game. If the 49ers win, I think the fan vote more or less becomes irrelevant and outweighed by the 80% media members, who will hold logic above (I hope) and won’t just give the MVP to the QB even if the RB is who carried them to victory.
Gatorade
I’m throwing a few bucks on both Yellow/Green and Red/Pink. There isn’t really a ton of information to go off of here and this color can always come in from left field. Since 2021 one, there is a wide variety of outcomes.
Orange: 5 (21.7%)
Clear/Water: 4 (17.4%)
None: 4 (17.4%)
Blue: 4 (17.4%)
Yellow: 3 (13%)
Purple: 3 (13%)
Red/Pink: 0 (0%)
There is a correlation in years past between sales numbers and the color that Gatorade wants to push to be dumped on the winning coach. The issue comes into play when players may grab the wrong bucket even when instructed to dump a specific cooler so there really is no surefire way to bet this. Looking at the current popularity of Gatorade colors, I’m going with the Yellow/Green (+450) and Red/Pink (+450) combos as to what I think is most likely. Right now the popularity, in order, is Orange, Purple, Red, Blue, Clear, and then Yellow. The last five colors have been Purple (2023), Blue (2022), Blue (2021), Orange (2020), and Blue (2019). Blue showing up three times over the last five years is why I am not on Blue. We have yet to see Red/Pink over the last 22 years so I’m taking a swing and it makes its first appearance. Then I believe that Gatorade will want to push sales and popularity to Yellow, which is where yellow comes into play. These bets are for fun, don’t go too crazy on them.
Unofficial Bets
- Christian McCaffrey 2+ TD (+260) – Fanduel
- Christian McCaffrey 3+ TD (+1200) – Fanduel
- Isiah Pacheco 1+ TD (-125) – Draftkings
- Isiah Pacheco 2+ TD (+500) – Caesars
- Noah Gray 1st TD (+4600) – Fanduel
- Noah Gray 1+ TD (+950) – Fanduel
- Noah Gray 2+ TD (+13000) – Fanduel (why not?)
- Gatorade Color Yellow/Green (+450) – MGM
- Gatorade Color Red/Pink (+450) – MGM
