I would rather write out my thought process as I go through the slate instead of writing out a game by game summary, What I want to do first is scan through the slate and look for the immediate edge I see. As I look over the slate I like to categorize each matchup, predict the lines, then compare it to the books. Vancouver/Boston is a game I expect to have six plus goals and get the over at 5.5. Washington/Florida is my first immediate edge. I expect Florida to open up at -200 or more with a team total of 3.5 but think we may get this -160 or lower, and a juiced total of 3. We’ll see. Calgary/Jersey should have high expected goals so a 6.5 open with a -135 range line for the Devils. Winnipeg/Philadelphia I expect to be a very low money line that Winnipeg should be -200 for. I expect the line is -140. Colorado/Carolina should be a 6.5 total that I will not even be looking at to touch. This game would be a complete fade. When I have two Cup contending teams going against each other, I rarely bother. Games like these do more to tell me who these teams will be come playoff time and finding an actual edge is very rare. When I’m betting, I’m betting on likelihood to happen, not a win-loss record. Tampa Bay/Islanders… this matchup always hits hard losing two Easter Conference Finals to them. I blame Barry Trotz game 7 decisions. For an elite coach, he made some terrible decisions to cost the Isles this series. Those outcomes put a lot of bias in my wants for this matchup. I want to lay on Tampa, but I need to dig deeper. Vegas/Arizona- I don’t like betting against Arizona and Vegas has really struggled…
Now that I know what stands out to me in these matchups, I run through and check lines and see if the edges are there. I’m starting with Vegas/Arizona because I am crossing this game off the list. I will explain why I am, and then you can decide if you feel confident enough in any of my notes to make additional plays. Arizona has won the last two matchups, last years final matchup and this year’s first matchup. Vegas has gotten back on track, but I have struggled with this team. A -140 money line is a trap line. The books want you to take Vegas here and they want you to load up. Vegas should win this matchup 4 of 5 times. It’s arguably the easiest matchup on the slate. Arizona is a low tier team but a team that plays hard and plays with pride and can win on any given night and they show up against good teams. This is a game I may come back to depending on the rest of the slate.
After beating the Isles in Game 7, the Lightning won the next six matchups. The Isles won the last meeting but Tampa has had their number. They have the superior superstars, they’re better coached, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is the Russian superstar that Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin hope to be. I expect the Isles to be favored here as the at home -115 but nine out of ten times, the Lightning win this matchup. Can tomorrow be the game the Isles win? Has the tide turned in this matchup? Long term no. Tomorrow, maybe. I love the Lightning here, but Tampa isn’t the same team they’ve been the past few years facing the Isles and Patrick Roy is looking to prove something. The Isles have not played any better since he took over, but they’re coming off a good win against the Leafs on Monday. I could see this game going over, depending on who is in net, so we will need to wait for tomorrow for this one.
New Jersey and Calgary should be the given over on the slate. I expect it to be one of two 6.5 totals on the slate, and I like it in terms of what should happen if these two teams played at their top level. The Flames had controlled this series over the past few years, but the Devils have won the last three. Calgary has traded Elias Lindholm but pulled off the 4-1 win over Boston last night. Jack Hughes should be back for the Devils tomorrow too. I think Calgary falls flat tomorrow but Nico Dawes is the expected starter for the Devils. This matchup should depend on who’s in net for New Jersey. If Dawes is in net this game should go over and possible high over. If Vitek gets the nod then I recommend the Devils ML.
Winnipeg is the superior team in this matchup, but they’re not the superior team against a grinding, hard coached team like the Flyers as much as they should be. Philly has won the last two and this is an out of conference matchup. Winnipeg comes in -140 and this is a line the similar to Vegas. This game should be low scoring and Winnipeg should win. I want to be on them so this might become a round robin night. There are a lot of favorites I like at low ML, so to minimize the risk of playing them individually, I may just round robin them for 2.5 units total. Vegas, Winnipeg, Florida, and we would need one more.
Florida is the immediate edge I found when looking over the slate. This is a mismatch on paper but I have discussed previously how inconsistent Florida can be. They lose games they should win at times. Florida has won 13 of 17 and won the last seven meetings with the Caps, and eight of nine. Florida is the edge. They are -250 so the money line is out, but that is why I included them in the round robin. What I am curious about is what line we can get the team total of three at. 3.5 is -130… that may go down tomorrow. 3 might open up at -190 or better. If it does we have some planning to do to maximize our edge. Minnesota just took the 2-1 lead… lets get this 1.5 and sweep these two…. If FLorida opens up at -190 or better, we can consider hitting this live to get -160, because if we can, I want to max it. Charlie Lindgren is expected tomorrow and he is not a 2.70 GAA goalie. He’s not. He may be right now, but there will come a point where he goes back to being himself. Florida has tagged him for 3, 3, and 5 goals in their wins, but been held to 0 and 1 in their losses. Florida will be my 3u play tomorrow once I see what the lines are.
Once lineups come out tomorrow I will be narrowing down the plays and finalizing the round robin. This is my late night look into tomorrow’s slate. Leave comments if you can, and if you can’t tell Zab or tell Nico and we will get them fixed. Let’s close this out in Minnesota.
