Zach Eflin is not a good pitcher and is the target of our 10 unit play. Eflin has finished above .500 w/l wise twice in his ten year career and one of them was last year with Tampa Bay. Last season was also the first time he finished a season with an ERA under 3.97. We targeted him in his first start when Toronto’s team total opened at 3.5 and they got to him in the sixth for six runs and three homers. The Rays are not going to be as good as they were last season and I have them slated to finish in the bottom of the East. Eflin at best is a serviceable number two or three pitcher but he is being significantly overvalued by the books right now and we will continue to pounce. This guy fucking sucks, and I know these aren’t any advanced analytics to justify a 10u play right now but Texas offense is an even bigger piece to this. They are top in the league right now averaging 7 runs per game and Josh Jung being out has no effect or change on my play. Jung missed 40 games last season and the Rangers still averaged 4.7 runs per game without him opposed to 5.68 with him. Unless Eflin has a cy young game tonight he should account for 5-6 innings of the game. I expect Texas to get to him for a MINIMUM of three runs if they don’t hit for all four within the first few innings. Tampa Bay’s bullpen right now is fourth worst through five games with a 5.60 ERA so asking Texas to get the extra run or two at worst we may need with this lineup is far from possible. Everything I see here leans towards Eflin needing to have a Cy Young performance against a top offense in the league keeping the bullpen usage at a two – three inning minimum to keep from blowing the game. The Rangers have won seven of the last eight meetings with Tampa and the more I look at this the more i plan on adding expecting the Rangers to feast:
Official Plays:
- 6:50pm LIVE: Texas Rangers Team Total over 2.5 -150: 3u
- 6:50pm Texas Rangers Team Total 5.5 +240: .5u
- 6:50pm Texas Rangers Team Total 6.5 +360: .75u
- 6:50pm Texas Rangers Team Total 7.5 +550: 1u
- 6:50pm Texas Rangers Team Total 8.5 +775: .5u
- 6:50pm Texas Rangers Team Total 9.5 +1050: 1u
