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UFL Week 2 Betting Breakdown

UFL Week 2

San Antonio @ Memphis – 12pm Saturday (4/6)

Luckily this game is on at noon on Saturday because this Saturday’s set of games is going to be fun. This is my favorite game in terms of offense and the latter game is going to be a fun experience in terms of fan involvement. In Week 1, San Antonio looked crisp on offense and Chase Garbers looked like a great fit for the AJ Smith offense. He threw the ball for 158 yards on 25 attempts but his consistency and accuracy allowed the Brahmas to run for the 3rd most rushing yards (75) and pull in the highest PFF rushing grade (76.6) even though they had the 2nd lowest run blocking grade (39.4). It is a bit early to take these stats for full value, given we have such a small sample size, and things will be moving so much along with players learning their schemes. This is why watching the games and the eye test is so important. Even though the Memphis Showboats’ defense graded well on paper, I wasn’t impressed by them. They faced a pretty bad Houston offense which helped make them look a bit better. The same can be said about the Brahmas’ defense. I think they played well and didn’t leave open a ton of space but Jordan Ta’amu isn’t the style of QB that is going to sit back and pick apart a defense, Case Cookus is. He is fine with those tight windows and can extend plays with his legs while taking a big hit in the pocket to deliver the ball downfield. A tight coverage offense made it tough on Ta’amu but I expect Cookus to have success. On the Memphis side looping in with Cookus, I think all of their playmakers are worth a DFS stab. My favorite of the bunch is Daewood Davis. He played well in Week 1 and commanded a whopping 10 targets, pulling in seven of them for 43 yards. Behind him would be a mix of Jonathan Adams (big play), Vinny Papale (slot), and Sage Surratt (TE – seven Week 1 targets). I’d leave the running game alone, as they looked horrid trying to move the ball on the ground. This is in part with the good Houston rush defense and schematics of the Memphis offense. On top of that, Darius Victor was banged up in this game and Titus Swen had to finish the game. I expect a mixture of Swen and Williams if Victor can’t go. 

 

Top play: SA/MEM o40 (-110) – Draftkings

 

Arlington @ St. Louis – 8pm Saturday (4/6)

St. Louis is going to win this game. I’m fine with tossing their ML into parlays to get an extra boost. They have BY FAR the biggest home field advantage in the UFL. Ever since the Rams left St. Louis, this city craves football. Last year the Battlehawks averaged 35,104 fans per game and this year they have had to open up more seating for this opening game and they expect to top 38,000. Unfortunately, we are looking at a -205 line opening for the Battlehawks and I won’t lay that juice or pay for the 6.5 spread so I’ll be looking to parlay the ML like I did last week with Birmingham and DC. Arlington was a bit underwhelming last week but we were able to capitalize at halftime by getting the Birmingham comeback at a great price. This isn’t uncommon for this Arlington team to start hot and then fall off a bit. They play hard, tough defense and expect Perez to make the tough throws to move the ball and pace the game. Against these higher end teams, it is a tough recipe to rely on. In terms of DFS, I can’t recommend Luiz Perez but I do like his top two receiving options, Deontay Burnett and Sal Cannella, as one off plays to fill out your lineup. With the expectation that St. Louis wins this game (and I expect them to control it), I think Arlington is going to have to throw more than they want to and Perez’s top two options will benefit. Both Burnett and Canella saw five targets in Arlington’s Week 1 loss to Birmingham. St. Louis threw the ball a ton in Week 1 and this wasn’t unexpected as they helped one of the league’s best QBs in AJ McCarron. McCarron loves to spread the ball around and we saw three players top six targets and another four top three targets. Darrius Shepherd led the way with eight targets, Marcell Ateman was next with seven and surprisingly Wayne Gallman saw six. I don’t think that is a great indication of how the Battlehawks will see their target tree going forward as they still have WRs like Hakeem Butler and Blake Jackson to get involved more, which they will. In this game I like Wayne Gallman yet again against an Arlington rush defense that had a hard time stopping the Birmingham Stallions ground game in Week 1. This also plays into the game script of a tad volume increase due to the Battlehawks being favorites and likely winning this game.

Top Play: St. Louis ML (-205) – Draftkings **Parlay**

Birmingham @ Michigan – 12pm Sunday (4/7)

As we saw in Week 1, Birmingham is on a different level than these other teams in the UFL. They are very, very well coached by Skip Holtz and the expectation is that will be the case all year long. It will be a very rare occurrence you see me betting against this Birmingham powerhouse. Holtz has come out and already said they view their roster as having TWO starting QBs between Matt Corral and Adrian Martinez. Holtz loves the dual threat ability from both and is going to use them interchangeably, which is going to make it difficult to use either in DFS. Their playmaking tree is relatively narrow with Jace Sternberger at the top followed by Deon Cain and Marlon Williams with Amari Rodgers mixed in. On the ground, we saw a healthy dose of CJ Marable in Week 1 with Ricky Person mixing in. Marable is used more on the ground and Person more in the air as Marable saw 18 carries with only one target and Person saw 10 carries but had three targets. In Week 1, Michigan played tough rush defense but St. Louis had no issues moving the ball in the air on them. In that game, Michigan ripped our hearts out and stole 30u from us with a 64-yard FG as time expired. EJ Perry looked solid and built on his great ending to the 2023 season. He was able to play a role in this offense similar to what Garbers did for San Antonio. He ran the ball six times for 17 yards, scoring twice, helping the offense move the chains along the way in the air, capping it off with the final drive to get them in place to kick a 64 yard FG game winning FG. Wes Hills, who dominated the XFL in 2023, showed out again in Week 1, running the ball 11 times for 85 yards. This Michigan team is going to consistently have success on the ground and should be here in this game. Only one player on the team hit five targets, which was WR Marcus Simms. Matt Colburn, the spell back behind Wes Hills, saw four targets and Trey Quinn saw three. This team doesn’t have an obvious playmaker at the moment so this is a wait and see spot. I don’t have a great gauge for who wins this game but I do like the over off the cuff.

Top Play: TBD

Houston @ DC – 4pm Sunday (4/7)

It is fitting both of these teams play each other because they were both massive disappointments in Week 1. Houston looked bad on offense and there was a point in which I thought they were going to bench Week 1 starter, Jarrett Guarantano. He was unable to consistently move the ball against what was expected to be a middle of the pack defense in Memphis. Reid Sinnett has NFL experience and is clipping on the heels of Guarantano. I would not be shocked if the switch is made sooner rather than later if Guarantano can’t get it together. There isn’t anyone of note to mention for DFS here on offense and I expect this to be a defensive minded game from both sides. A big bright spot for the Houston Roughnecks was their rush defense as they were able to hold Memphis in check all game. I think that is real and I am viewing the Roughnecks as the top rush defense in the UFL until further notice. Due to that, I won’t be interested in any DC running backs. We saw Cam’Ron Harris take the majority of the snaps in the DC backfield with Pooka Williams mixed in. Neither blew the doors off the game and this was part due to the Defenders playing from behind all game with inefficiencies across the board. In the air, Ta’amu looked back and out of sync, only throwing for 227 yards on a whopping 45 attempts. Maybe they can get something going here but I am with a wait and see from this offense. I don’t expect Houston’s offense to push the Defenders to have to throw the ball 45 times which is going to limit the target shares for this receiving group. Both teams are likely going to force the run and we will see long drives that likely end in FGs and just eat clock.

Top Play: HOU/DC u41 (-110) – DraftKings

 

Plays

  • SA/MEM o40 (-110): 3u – DraftKings
  • HOU/DC u41 (-110): 2u  – DraftKings

 

Sanaynay
Author: Sanaynay

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