Top game stacks

TEN @ LAC

DAL @ JAX

ATL @ NO

QB

Justin Herbert (LA Chargers – $7,200/$8,300)

Herbert throws the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL, behind only Tom Brady. Mix that in with a 47 point total at home against an awful Titans pass defense and we have a recipe for points. The Chargers are going to have their second game all season with a healthy set of offensive weapons. Since Week 9, the Titans are giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs. They are getting torched by all perimeter WRs (1st), slot WRs (8th), TEs (2nd), and pass catching backs. Literally everywhere they are in the top 10 worst in points scored against in this time frame. The Chargers are loaded across the board at all of these positions and mix in a QB with the talent of Justin Herbert, we will see fireworks.

Trevor Lawerence (Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,200/$7,500)

Lawrence is on fire. It seems that my preseason prediction of Lawrence being in the MVP conversation was a year too early. This offense is clicking under Head Coach Doug Pederson, and Trevor Lawrence is the main beneficiary. Lawrence has scored at least 25 points in two of his last three games, including a 33.42 outburst last week over the Titans. He has thrown the ball an average of 37.5 times a game since Week 10. This offense is healthy, the offensive line is playing like a top 10 unit, all his WRs are clicking with him and they are spreading the ball around. I’m not worried at all about the Cowboys pass rush and with Lawrence’s athletic ability, it will create “broken” plays where he will either burst for a 10+ yard run or find one of his playmakers running open down field. My DAL/JAX stacks will be led by Trevor Lawerence. 

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts (PHI), Dak Prescott (DAL)

*You can play Jalen Hurts any week stacked with either of his WRs, AJ Brown or Davonte Smith. 

Value Play

Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons – $5,200/$6,500)

Third round rookie QB Desmond Ridder will be handed the reins for the Atlanta Falcons for the rest of the season. In the pre-season, Ridder looked solid. He has a nice strong arm and the athleticism to extend plays. In his first NFL start, he will be facing off against the New Orleans Saints. This is a matchup I’m not going out of my way to attack but it is a good one for Ridder. The Saints have given up the 11th most points to opposing QBs over the last month and a half of the season while facing possibly the easiest QB schedule of all time. Since Week 1, they have faced Kenny Pickett, Bryce Perkins, Jimmy Garoppolo, and then Tom Brady. This isn’t a slight on Brady but that Buccaneers offense is a flaming pile of garbage due to bottom five offensive line play. At his price tag, I’ll take a flier on the rookie QB who should be playing above expectations because of his adrenaline pumping.

RB

Miles Sanders (Philadelphia Eagles – $6,500/$7,800)

I’m firing Sanders back up after he smashed last week as the top RB suggestion. This week the Eagles are visiting the Bears, a defense that has been shredded against opposing backs. This has been an issue all season long for them and it shouldn’t come as a shock given they are tanking. The Eagles are 9-point road favorites visiting Chicago and that is likely because of the Bears coming off of a bye, because this spread should be closer to 13-14 even with it being in Chicago. If Justin Fields and the Bears can somehow keep it close and we get four quarters of Miles Sanders, look out. I expect another 100+ yard performance with a strong chance for another double digit TD game.

Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans – $8,000/$8,900)

The game plan for the Titans every Sunday is to feed the big man. Last week Henry had a great first half but was held to only a few yards in the 2nd half. This wasn’t because of Henry being bad, just the fact the Titans got the wheels blown off of them and had to go extreme pass heavy. Henry finished with 17/121/1 rushing to get back on track after two weeks below 40 yards. This week he will face the extreme run heavy Chargers who basically don’t really care if you run on them. Since Week 7 no team has given up a higher YPC to opposing backs than the Chargers. In that time frame in full PPR formats, they sit at 16th in the NFL for points against with 23.6 but they give up the fewest receptions and receiving yards to opposing backs. On the season they have given up the sixth most fantasy points in full PPR formats but rank 18th in receptions and yards. This means that the drop down to 16th since Week 7s purely because of teams not throwing to their backs against the Chargers. Fire up Henry confidently in this matchup where he should have plenty of holes to run through. 

Isaiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs – $5,900/$7,600)

Every week we target the Texans who have been one of the worst rush defenses all season long. I think his ownership will be suppressed due to the recency bias that McKinnon has taken over the backfield completely. In reality, in games that the Chiefs are typically dominating, they run Pacheco at a high clip. Over the last five games, Pacheco has seen at the minimum 15 touches in every game and ran for at least 66 yards in each game while catching six balls over his last three. Line Pacheco up for 15-20 touches against a horrible run defense in a game that the Chiefs are 14-point favorites.

James Conner (Arizona Cardinals – $6,900/$7,200)

James Conner is going to be the centerpiece of the Arizona Cardinals offense for the rest of the season. Over his last four games he has seen at least 16 touches on every game with at least two receptions and scoring a minimum of 13.4 PPR points in each game. Dating back to Week 7, the Broncos have given up generous statlines to Breece Hall (4/72/1), Travis Etienne (24/156/1), Josh Jacobs (24/109), D’Onta Foreman (24/113) and Isaiah Pacheco (13/70). Since Week 10, they are giving up the 10th most PPR points per game while giving up the 4th most receptions to opposing backs and second most receiving yards. Conner is a threat both on the ground and in the air in this one with a high chance of scoring a TD and possibly even two. 

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler (LAC), Alvin Kamara (NO)

Value Play

Rex Burkhead (Houston Texans – $4,600/$4,800)

I usually don’t pay down for running backs but I do like Rex Burkhead this week with Dameon Pierce unlikely to play. I know that Dare Ogunbowale has out-snapped Burkhead these last couple of weeks but, in my opinion, this was because of a few reasons. Dare is more of a special teams player who specializes as a receiving back when he plays. Rex Burkhead is more of a complete back but has been hobbled by a hip injury the last two weeks, but isn’t even on the injury report for Week 14. With a week back for Burkhead and the Texans ability to game plan all week for Burkhead to start, I think he gets the majority of the backfield snaps in a game they are 14-point underdogs. I envision 8-10 carries for Burkhead and 5+ targets. Understand the goose egg risk that comes along with paying down this far for Rex Burkhead if it is in fact Dare Ogunbowale who is given the lead back role. 

Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers – $4,900/$6,100)

With the risk that comes along with Burkhead, I’ll mention another dumpster dive. I like Chuba Hubbard this week against a defense that just got torched on the ground by a scuffling Ravens offense without Lamar Jackson. Last week, as I mentioned in the Waiver article, Hubbard looked better than Foreman. Over the last two games for the Panthers, Hubbard has seen 31 carries for 139 rushing yards and a score. Last week he caught all three of his targets for 25 yards. Back when the Panthers traded CMC in Week 7, it was actually Hubbard who was given the first nod at the starting gig in Carolina and there is a chance Hubbard has overtaken Foreman as the lead back but we just haven’t seen it happen yet behind the scenes. Even if he hasn’t, Hubbard is in line for 15-18 touches and some air work on Sunday. 

WR

Mike Williams (LA Chargers – $6,300/$7,200)

You can make a nice argument to play Keenan Allen this week but I am going with Mike Williams. The Titans pass defense sucks. They have given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter WRs since Week 10 and have given up the most all season long. Mike Williams announced he was back to full health last week in a big way, snagging all six of his targets for 116 yards and a score, dropping 23.6 PPR points on the Miami Dolphins. You can play any of the Chargers pass catchers but Mike Williams is my favorite this week. 

AJ Brown (Philadelphia Eagles – $/$8,200)

AJ Brown is that dude. He is a top 5 WR in the NFL and the Eagles love throwing him the ball. On top of that, he has been on fire the last two weeks, pulling in 12 of his 16 targets for 189 yards and three scores. The Bears are the worst in the NFL in the areas of the field where AJ Brown excels. They have the worst DVOA against opposing WR1s and they get torched on the right side of the field where AJ Brown usually lines up, specifically on mid to deep passes, where AJ Brown makes all of his money. Don’t overthink the game flow of this because if the Bears somehow keep this close it could be an eruption spot for AJ Brown.  

Cee Dee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys – $7,300/$8,100)

Lamb has been seeing an elite target share all season and it has continued in recent weeks, seeing 24 targets over the last three games and 44 over his last five. Since Week 10, the Jaguars have given up the most fantasy points to the slot, which is where Lamb runs about 60% of his routes, including 76.2% of them in the slot in Week 14. After almost losing to the Texans in Week 14, I expect them to come out firing, knowing that the Jaguars are going to push them for the entire game. 

Marquise Brown (Arizona Cardinals – $5,500/$6,800)

Brown has been lining up in the slot almost 70% of the time the last two weeks since returning from his injury that he suffered in Week 6. He has seen eight targets in both games, receiving 10 of them for 79 scoreless yards. The Broncos are not as daunting of a matchup as one may think as of recently. Since Week 10, the Broncos have given up the tenth most points to slot WRs. With Colt McCoy under center, I expect Hollywood Brown to have another 8+ target game. At his price tag, it is great value. 

Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints – $6,500/$7,100)

It hasn’t translated to production against the Falcons but they are abysmal in guarding opposing WRs. Olave is the alpha for the Saints for at least the rest of this season. He has seen 21 targets over the last three games for a 24.7% share. Since Week 7, he has 56 targets and at least five in all of those games. Both the volume and the matchup will be there for Olave who can take the top off of opposing defenses.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), Christian Kirk (JAX)

NOTE: I like both Joshua Palmer and Keenan Allen this week for the Chargers. I prefer Mike Williams but I also didn’t want to clog up suggestion spots for one game stack. I’d absolutely recommend playing any two of this trio with Justin Herbert if the TEN/LAC stack is the way you end up going. 

Value Play

Chris Moore (Draftkings – Houston Texans – $4,200/$6,000)

Chris Moore is a borderline mid-tier play but he is still cheap on Draftkings, which is where I would target him for a most cost efficient play. Last week he saw 11 targets in the almost monumental upset over the Dallas Cowboys. He caught 10 of those 11 targets for 124 scoreless yards. Anyone priced down at $4,200 with an 11 target range of outcomes deserves serious consideration. This week the Texans face off against the Kansas City Chiefs so the Texans are expected to be throwing at a high rate, yet again as 14-point underdogs. 

NOTE: Both Phillip Dorsett and Amari Rodgers are worth fliers as well. I think it is more likely Chris Moore continues to lead the Texans WR group with both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins out, but it is worth noting that Amari Rodgers caught four of his five targets last week for 57 yards and a score. I expect Rodgers to also be heavily involved in this rotation and is only $3,200 on Draftkings.

Marvin Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,400/$5,300)

Before only seeing one target last week against the Titans, Marvin Jones was averaging 5.4 targets per game over his previous seven games. The Dallas Cowboys are vulnerable out on the edges due to their aggressive play styles. All it takes is for Marvin to get loose on one play for his cheap salary to pay off.

TE

Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys – $4,400/$6,500)

Schultz averages about 6.5 targets per game in games he plays the majority of the snaps since Week 7. In games where the Cowboys get pushed and Dak is forced to throw at a higher clip, Dalton approaches 8-10 targets in those games. The Jaguars have been the worst defense in the NFL at guarding TEs since Week 9 and one of the worst all season long. Since Week 9, they have given up a whopping 100.9 points over their five-game span. The next closest to them in that time frame is averaging 3.2 PPR points less per game against them. The majority of the TE points against the Jags come from the slot. Schultz runs about a third of his routes in the slot but against poor slot teams that number typically jumps closer to 50%. I expect this game to go back and forth with how Lawrence is playing, which should result in 8-10 targets for Schultz and a higher chance at a TD.

Gerald Everett (LA Chargers – $4,300/$5,600)

As I just mentioned above, the Titans have given up the 2nd most PPR points to TEs since Week 9 on a per game basis. They’ve actually given up one more fantasy point over that span than the Jaguars but have also played one more game. It is worth noting that last week Engram dropped 39.2 PPR points on the Titans. Even if we calculate weeks 9-13, the Titans still give up 11.6 PPR points a game. We can’t ignore what Engram did to the Titans because it definitely happened. Over his last two games, Everett has seen 14 targets, catching 10 of them for 108 scoreless yards. Even last week when the Chargers were at full strength, Everett saw eight targets and saw two receptions on the first drive and saw three red zone targets in that game. Everett is getting work all over the field and the important red zone work in a game with a 47 point total.

Honorable Mentions: Greg Dulcich (DEN), Travis Kelce (KC)

Value Play

Cade Otton (Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,900/$4,600)

With how cheap Otton is, I like him even if Cameron Brate returns to the lineup. Otton has seen 15 targets over the last two games for the Bucs, catching 10 of them for 56 yards and a score. He is way too cheap on both sites and is being priced as a backup who doesn’t play. The Bengals are an above average matchup for TEs and I expect Brady to get the ball out quick due to their offensive line issues, which benefits Otton.

DST

Philadelphia Eagles ($3,900/$4,800)

It really is a shame that Justin Fields has absolutely no help around him because this would be a fun game stacked with the Eagles offense. Oh well, here we are and I’m very interested in the Eagles DST. The Bears are coming off of a bye and are at home, so I would typically avoid a situation like this, but the Bears offense is just that bad. The Eagles present an elite defensive front rotation, getting pressure at the third highest rate in the NFL and accumulating the most sacks while only blitzing 21.9% of the time which is around league average. The Bears offensive line is still hot garbage, leaving their young, mistake prone QB running for his life. 

Carolina Panthers ($3,300/$4,200)

The Panthers are playing better and better every week under interim coach Steve Wilks. Wilks has a defensive background, so he has been able to form this team around that. They run the ball on offense and slow the game up, keep their defense fresh and dominate on defense. They are fresh off of a victory in Seattle, a game in which they sacked Geno Smith three times and forced two turnovers, which should have been three turnovers. At this point of the week, it would be a shock if Kenny Pickett suited up for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both Trubisky and Mason Rudolph have split snaps at QB and Pickett still isn’t practicing. This defense at home against this poor offense and two turnover prone QBs is a recipe for success.

Value Play

Detroit Lions ($3,000/$3,800)

I was critical of the Lions defense after Hard Knocks and the way their Defensive Coordinator, Aaron Glenn, was hyped up to be almost a shoe-in for a head coaching vacancy in 2023 while the defense was playing historically bad. However, they have done a complete 180. Since Week 9, this team has won six out of seven games, with their only loss being to the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving. They have given up an average of 17.42 points per game in that span. Over the last two weeks the Lions have accrued six sacks and three turnovers. Nothing to write home about, but Aiden Hutchinson is playing the best ball of his rookie year while the Jets offense will be led by the awful Zach Wilson. The Jets also have lost three of their last four. At this price tag, I’ll take the flier on a lower scoring game with some bounces to go towards the hot team.

NOTE: The Denver Broncos are going to be the chalk defense this week, taking on Colt McCoy and the Arizona Cardinals. They are slightly less than the Lions on both sites so I understand the appeal. However, I won’t be going that route. I’m not attacking the talent on the Cardinals offense and I actually think with a week to gameplan, Kliff Kingsbury can make a viable offense out of Colt McCoy and that group. Also, the Denver Broncos defense has been bad recently. It is perceived as a top pass defense, but since Week 9 they have been a leaky faucet both in the air and on the ground. I’m pivoting to the defense that is playing much, much better of late and is facing a worse offense.